NFL Week 3: Best Spread Bets & Picks

The Patriots’ entire offensive line showed up on Tuesday’s injury report, which is less than ideal for obvious reasons.

Fortunately, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing success has had less to do with blocking up front and more with his ability to gain yardage after getting hit. Stevenson’s 117 yards after contact rank in the NFL – a number worth considering given that this will be the Jets’ third game in three cities in 11 days.

That travel load is also worth considering when you remember Aaron Rodgers is 40 years old. No team in the last 23 seasons has had to play a home game on a Thursday after consecutive road games with one of those games happening on a Monday.

It’s too many games and too much travel in too short an amount of time to feel comfortable with giving nearly a touchdown against a scrappy New England squad that’s exceeding expectations. We’ll grab 6.5 points with the Patriots on Thursday Night Football.

We’re reaching the point where it’s time to stop wondering if Deshaun Watson will ever be as good as he was with the Texans.

The question now is whether the Browns can win despite a quarterback who’s last in the NFL in passing success rate, second-to-last in yards per completion and fourth from the bottom in both passer rating and QBR this year.

Myles Garrett is trying to play through a foot injury, Nick Chubb hasn’t returned yet, Cleveland leads the league in penalties and Joe Flacco – last year’s savior – is with the Colts.

The Giants are bad, but they didn’t allow a touchdown last week and only lost by a field goal. They’ve got a healthy kicker this week and also have the better quarterback (for now).

The play here is New York (+6.5) on the road.

Caleb Williams was pressured on more than 42% of his dropbacks and sacked seven times in last week’s loss to the Texans, looking completely overmatched on Sunday Night Football.

That said, the problem for anyone looking to play the favorite is that the Colts aren’t likely to replicate that defensive performance. Indianapolis is just 26th in pass rush win rate.

Chicago’s defense held its own against Houston’s electric offense and now gets to face Anthony Richardson coming off a three-interception performance.

Both of these quarterbacks may be stars someday, but neither is very trustworthy at the moment. We’ll back the Bears’ defense to help cover +1.5.

It’s fair if you’re waiting for Sam Darnold to inevitably turn into, well, Sam Darnold. That may happen this week if the thigh bruise that forced Justin Jefferson to the sideline last week becomes a long-term problem.

But the Texans haven’t totally hit their stride yet offensively, and C.J. Stroud has been sacked seven times in two games. The Vikings lead the NFL in sacks and they’re second in both total pressures and defensive DVOA.

There’s a lot to like about Houston and reasons to be skeptical about Minnesota, but the Vikings’ defense has been too disruptive for us to pass up points. We like Minnesota (+2.5) as a home underdog.

The league’s biggest surprise through two weeks and top-ranked offense in DVOA (New Orleans) hosts the league’s second-worst defense in DVOA and a team coming off a heartbreaking Monday Night Football loss at home (Philadelphia).

The Eagles are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games, while the Saints have scored on their first 15 drives with Derek Carr at quarterback this season.

I think you can see where we’re going with this wager. New Orleans will cool off eventually, but bet against Carr & Co. at your own risk, especially when the number is this small.

We’re taking the Saints (-2.5) as a slight home favorite.

The Chargers and Steelers are No. 1 and No. 2 in lowest percentage of opposing offensive drives that have resulted in a score, but Los Angeles feels like the slightly safer play here.

Jim Harbaugh’s team has remained on the East Coast after playing in Charlotte last week, his defense is tops in the league in run stop win rate and Justin Fields doesn’t seem equipped to offset any issues Pittsburgh may have running the ball.

As terrific as his teams have been straight up in close games recently, Mike Tomlin still covers just 47.6% of the time as a favorite. Justin Herbert is 9-3 against the spread on the road in September and October and 10-4 versus this number when the game is played in the eastern time zone.

Points may be at a premium here, but we’re taking the Chargers (+1.5) as a slight road underdog.

Baker Mayfield started the season by authoring the best performance of any Week 1 quarterback, then followed it up last week by helping the underdog Buccaneers to a road win in Detroit.

Tampa Bay’s offense may be a little too pass-reliant and its defense has the NFL’s lowest sack rate. If not for the Saints channeling the 1999 Rams through two weeks, however, the Buccaneers would be the NFC’s most-discussed team.

No one wants to talk about Bo Nix right now. No quarterback has been picked off more than the Broncos rookie, whose yards per completion (2.65) ranks ahead of only Bryce Young. Only two quarterbacks have attempted more passes, which is remarkable given that Denver has yet to trail by more than two scores this season.

It’s quite possible that changes this week. We’ll lay the points and back Tampa Bay (-6.5) at home.

After his team upset the Colts at home with Malik Willis playing quarterback, no active NFL head coach has covered the spread as an underdog at a higher rate (67.7%) than Green Bay’s Matt LaFleur.

One win with a smartly designed game plan for Willis may not compel you to trust the former Titans quarterback, but he’s a better plan than the current Tennessee QB, as Will Levis’ mistakes have come at the worst possible time in both of the Titans’ losses.

In a matchup where neither QB is likely to win the game, we’ll bet on the one that’s less likely to lose it. Our wager is on the Packers (+2.5).

The Panthers are turning to Andy Dalton at quarterback, which would be fine if it was 2015 and they had A.J. Green in his prime for Dalton to throw to.

Unfortunately, Green is long retired now and it’s 2024, which feels a lot like 2023, 2022 and any one of Carolina’s last five seasons with double-digit losses.

Dalton has been a losing quarterback against the spread in each of the last six seasons, and he’s taking over a Panthers offense that’s somehow worse than last year’s unit, which had the NFL’s lowest single-season yards per play ranking in 15 years. Last year Carolina gained 4.1 yards per play, which looks great compared to this year’s 3.5 mark.

The Raiders are projected to be favored in only one other game this season, but Antonio Pierce’s team has been feisty. The Las Vegas head coach is now 8-2-1 against the spread after last week’s upset win in Baltimore, and Gardner Minshew is completing close to 78% of his passes.

We’ll wager on the Raiders (-6.5).

Dolphins quarterback Skylar Thompson will make his third career start in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa.

The questions surrounding Tagovailoa’s future after he suffered another concussion obscured how poorly Miami played last Thursday night in a 21-point home loss to Buffalo. The Dolphins are now near the bottom of the league in both offensive and defensive DVOA, and they’re being forced to use a backup quarterback in one of the NFL’s toughest environments for road teams.

Miami head coach Mike McDaniel is just 5-8 against the spread as an underdog and is facing a Seahawks defense that ranks third in pass rush win rate and fifth in DVOA. The Dolphins do have the advantage of extra rest, but the Seahawks are getting solid play from Geno Smith and rank second in expected points contributed by passing defense.

We’ll take Seattle (-4.5) as a home favorite.

You’re being cautious if you don’t want to fall too much in love with the Cardinals after they trounced the beaten-up Rams at home, and you’re being fair if last week’s home loss to the Buccaneers hasn’t caused you to rip up any futures wagers on the Lions.

It’s tempting to take the points with Arizona coming off a 41-point outburst, but we’ll side with Dan Campbell and Jared Goff’s track record. Detroit has won eight straight games against the spread following a loss, and Goff is 17-8 against this number following a loss since joining the Lions.

The Cardinals are two weeks removed from allowing the Bills to score four second-half touchdowns, and Kyler Murray’s record as a favorite (10-15) suggests he’s too unreliable to wager on. We’ll side with Detroit (-3) as a road favorite.

These were arguably the NFL’s two most disappointing Week 2 teams. The Ravens coughed up a 10-point fourth-quarter lead at home as heavy favorites to the Raiders while the Cowboys followed up their impressive Week 1 showing by getting routed at home by the Saints.

Lamar Jackson covered the spread in each game following a Baltimore loss last season, but he’s hardly looked like an MVP so far. Only five quarterbacks have a lower percentage of “on target” passes, and he has as many “bad throws” as Bryce Young.

Still, the Ravens are only a handful of plays away from being 2-0, and there’s been a little too much game-to-game volatility from Dallas to back the home team in such a close game. The Cowboys’ horrible 34.5 Pro Football Focus run defense grade last week means they may struggle to stop Jackson and Derrick Henry on the ground.

Our play is on the Ravens (-1.5).

The Rams will try to avoid an 0-3 start while playing without both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. As much as Sean McVay has to gameplan around not having his top two receivers, Los Angeles must straighten out a defense that’s 29th in DVOA and is giving up the most yards per completion (13.8) in the NFL.

The 49ers are laying a big number despite not having either Christian McCaffrey or Deebo Samuel available, but Brock Purdy still has enough weapons to throw to and the offensive line is still blocking well enough for backup running back Jordan Mason to rank second in the NFL in rushing yards before contact.

Matthew Stafford has already been sacked seven times in two games, making him an inviting target for San Francisco’s defense. With Nick Bosa and his 92.8 PFF pass rush grade waiting in the wings, we’ll lay the big number and take the Niners (-6.5).

The Chiefs are this close to being 0-2 after winning by a toe in their opener against the Ravens and having their backs against the wall on fourth-and-16 in the final minute last week against the Bengals.

Kansas City lost running back Isiah Pacheco to a fractured fibula but is due for improvement from Patrick Mahomes, who’s thrown as many touchdowns as interceptions (he also had a pick called back last week).

Kirk Cousins is tough to trust in primetime, especially on a short week. He also had too much time to throw in key spots on Monday against the Eagles, something that the Chiefs should improve upon against an offensive line that ranks 28th in pass blocking according to PFF.

We’ll play the Chiefs (-3) as road favorites.

It may be too early to accuse Trevor Lawrence of regressing, but the Jaguars quarterback hasn’t played well during Jacksonville’s 0-2 start. Only two quarterbacks have a higher percentage of bad throws – one is a rookie playing behind a poor Bears offensive line and the other is now backing up Andy Dalton on the Panthers.

Josh Allen has played almost flawlessly despite the Bills’ turnover at wide receiver. This game opened with Buffalo giving 6.5 points, which was a little hefty considering some of the Bills’ injuries on defense, how close the Jags came to winning against Miami in Week 1 and how they outgained the Browns last week despite losing.

At -4.5 though, the play has to be on the better quarterback who’s playing in his home stadium. We’ll give the points and take Buffalo (-4.5) on Monday night.

The Commanders won last week against the Giants without scoring a touchdown because they had a kicker and New York didn’t. Washington’s Austin Siebert converted all seven field goal tries to give Jayden Daniels his first NFL win.

The Bengals are 0-2 for the third straight season after losing to the Chiefs despite outplaying them in Kansas City last Sunday. They won’t fall to 0-3 for the first time since 2019 if all the Commanders do is kick field goals on Monday night, especially if Tee Higgins returns for Cincinnati and Joe Burrow picks up where he left off last week.

If that happens, they’ll be well-equipped to expose a Washington defense that’s dead last in DVOA.

The Commanders can run the ball, though. Brian Robinson is averaging six yards per carry and is facing a Cincinnati defense that’s thin at defensive tackle and has struggled to stop the rush. He and Daniels should have just enough success keeping Burrow off the field to keep the game close.

We’ll take the points with Washington (+7.5) as road underdogs.

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