Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- When: Sunday, September 25 (Week 3)
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Betting Odds Summary
- Spread: Packers +1.5 (-112), Buccaneers -1 (-108)
- Moneyline: Packers -102, Buccaneers -116
- Total: Over/Under 41.5 (-115/-105)
Note: Odds and lines are current from FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of writing and subject to change.
The Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers entered this season as two Super Bowl favorites, but controversy has surrounded both programs in the weeks since.
Aaron Rodgers looks lost without Davante Adams as he tries to adjust to Green Bay’s new receiving corps, while Tom Brady looks frustrated with his shorthanded offense. Tampa Bay will be even more depleted this week without star receiver Mike Evans, who was suspended for one game for last week’s altercation with New Orleans’ Marshon Lattimore.
That said, things aren’t too bad. The Buccaneers are 2-0 and the Packers just destroyed the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football.
Which team has the edge in this matchup? Who should we bet on?
There are many ways to bet on this NFL game, and we are here to give you the best options.
Spread, Moneyline, Total: Packers vs Buccaneers
It’s only Week 3, but Tampa Bay is already extremely banged up. There are currently 13 Buccaneers on this week’s injury report, including two of Brady’s top weapons in Julio Jones an Chris Godwin. The offense already has continuity and communication issues after Brady missed a large chunk of preseason, and things could get worse this week against a Green Bay defense that just held Chicago to 10 points.
The Packers have issues of their own, specifically the rush defense. Green Bay ranks 30th in Rush Defense DVOA through two weeks and just allowed the horrendous Bears to rush for 180 yards last week.
That said, the Packers are just healthier. Rodgers played great last Sunday, finishing seventh among quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per Play in Week 2. The mercurial quarterback is developing more chemistry with his receivers and could be poised for a bigger performance in Week 3.
Moreover, betting on road underdogs with low totals in the NFL is a profitable angle. Road underdogs with totals of 42 or lower have covered 60% of opportunities since 2018, going 89-55-4 against the spread.
Our Pick: Green Bay Packers +1.5 (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Player Prop Bets: Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Leonard Fournette Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook
With their receiving corps even more depleted than usual, Tampa Bay is going to lean heavily on the ground game again on Sunday.
As noted, Green Bay’s defense is vulnerable to the run. Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles is aware of this and will use it to his advantage.
Leonard Fournette will be getting all the looks on Sunday after racking up 45 carries over the first two weeks, finishing with 21 carries in Week 1 and 24 carries in Week 2. As such, Fournette should have no problem smashing the Over on this rushing prop.
Our Same-Game Parlay
Our Packers vs Buccaneers same-game parlay has +650 odds at BetMGM Sportsbook:
- Green Bay Packers Moneyline (+100)
- Under 42 Total Points (-110)
- Leonard Fournette Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Tom Brady Under 274.5 Passing Yards (-125)
Brady has already struggled to compile stats with injuries to his offensive line and receivers. The 45-year-old quarterback managed just 212 passing yards in Week 1 and 190 in Week 2, which points to the Under on both his passing prop and the total.
As mentioned, Tampa Bay will need to rely on Fournette to carry the offense again. He’s been up to the task so far with 192 rushing yards, including at least 65 in both weeks.
We expect the healthier Packers to win, but similar to the Buccaneers they will focus more on running the ball with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon because of their inexperienced receivers. With both teams pounding the football, that will slow the game down and lead to fewer points, making the Under more probable.
We can cash in big on a low-scoring, high-rushing game with this same-game parlay.
