NFL Week 4: Best Spread Bets & Picks

After his team’s second straight home loss last week, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott defiantly told Dallas fans to “jump off (the bandwagon) if you want to.”

We’ll stay on Prescott’s bandwagon this week though, mainly because of who he’s playing against. The Giants did beat the Browns on the road last week, largely thanks to Daniel Jones constantly throwing the ball to Malik Nabers.

But that doesn’t change the fact that Prescott and the Cowboys own the G-Men. Dallas outscored New York 89-17 in last year’s two meetings, and Prescott won each of his last 12 starts against the Giants by an average margin of 16 points. He’s also covered at a near-59% clip as a favorite, including 76% of the time when favored in a division rivalry game.

No jumping off here – we’re backing the Cowboys (-6) as road favorites.

The talk of the NFL through the first two weeks, the Saints crashed back to Earth last Sunday against the Eagles in a game where they scored just one touchdown at home.

The Falcons’ attempt at a second straight last-minute comeback in primetime fell short last Sunday against the Chiefs. Despite being just a dropped Saquon Barkley pass away from entering Week 4 winless, Atlanta is laying points against the NFC’s highest-scoring team.

New Orleans’ offense is probably not as good as it looked after two blowout wins, but it’s better than it showed against Philadelphia and still nearly won last week.

In a game that amounts to a pick ‘em, we’ll side with the road squad and a defense that’s forcing turnovers on more than one-fifth of their opponents’ offensive drives.

The Rams pulled off perhaps the most unlikely win of the Sean McVay era last week against the 49ers, battling through a long list of injuries to overcome a two-score fourth-quarter deficit in a three-point win.

Rookie quarterback and No. 1 draft pick Caleb Williams threw for over 350 yards last week, but the Bears’ offense didn’t really get going until it was too late against the Colts. Those struggles have led fans in the Windy City to already become exasperated with new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, a former McVay assistant in Los Angeles.

It might not seem wise to bet against the combination of McVay and Matthew Stafford, but recent history works against them. Since 2016, teams that came back from 14 points or more in one week have covered just 41.2% of the time the following week.

The Rams’ injury situation is dire, especially up front. Stafford’s already been sacked 10 times and has been pressured more frequently than all but two starting quarterbacks.

Los Angeles is also vulnerable defensively, allowing the most net yards per passing attempt in the league. Williams shouldn’t need to throw the ball 52 times like last week, but he should do enough to help Chicago cover as a home favorite.

Signs are pointing toward Jordan Love returning after missing the last two games with a knee injury — both of which were Packers wins. Matt LaFleur could still use Malik Willis in sub packages against an imposing Vikings defense that leads the NFL in total pressures, sacks and percentage of scoring drives allowed.

Despite Minnesota’s unbeaten record and quarterback San Darnold’s unlikely ascension, we’ll back the ‘Pack. Not only is LeFleur 23-14 against the spread as a home favorite, but his defense leads the NFL in interceptions and is coming off an eight-sack performance against the Titans.

The Vikings may be for real, but Darnold is dealing with a knee injury and we’re not ready to trust him on the road against a quality defense. Our money is on Green Bay (-3).

The unbeaten Steelers stand alone atop the uninspiring AFC North, while the Colts just picked up their first win despite an uninspiring performance by quarterback Anthony Richardson.

Pittsburgh is winning despite minimal offensive contributions. The Steelers have scored just three touchdowns in as many games and rank 26th in points per play. Justin Fields has completed a high percentage of his passes and thrown just one interception, but that inefficiency will eventually catch up to Pittsburgh’s flawed offense.

Indianapolis seems like a place where that may happen, especially after the Colts unearthed their running game last week. According to Pro Football Focus, their offensive line ranks first in both pass and run block win rate and second in rush yards before contact. Plus, Indy’s defense has held its last two opponents to just 16 points each.

Mike Tomlin is known for never having a losing season, but his teams cover just 45% of the time when they’re favored on the road. We’ll take the Colts (+1.5) at home.

Aaron Rodgers is back, and Bo Nix has arrived.

It might be premature to suggest either of those things, but Rodgers looked more like himself last week against the Patriots on Thursday night, and Nix at least resembled a competent NFL quarterback in the Broncos’ road win over the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay’s defense was depleted, however, whereas New York’s is well-rested and coming off a seven-sack game. Rodgers also should benefit from the extra time off, as he’s 31-20-2 when coming off extended rest.

The spread is a little bigger than we’d like with the hook, but we need to see more from Nix before we feel comfortable investing in him on the road. We’ll lay the points with the Jets (-8) instead.

Credit the Eagles for bouncing back from a gut-punch loss in Week 2 and taking down the Saints in New Orleans last week. Also, credit yourself if you faded the overhyped Buccaneers at home last week against Denver.

Philadelphia was still shaky on offense, though. Jalen Hurts had two turnovers, and the Eagles were stopped on fourth down twice. Only one team has more turnovers than Philadelphia.

Tampa Bay needs to improve its running game, but the Eagles are allowing more than five yards per rushing attempt. The Bucs crushed them at home during last year’s playoffs and are still getting points. We’ll gladly take them and back Tampa Bay (+1.5).

Bengals fans who spent years trying to convince themselves that Andy Dalton could be a Super Bowl-winning quarterback are now trying to convince themselves that he won’t hand Cincinnati a fourth straight loss to open the season.

Dalton was terrific last week in the Panthers’ upset win over the Raiders after replacing Bryce Young, and he’s surely excited at the prospect of playing this week against his old team, not to mention a defense that allowed a staggering 6.3 points per drive in last week’s loss to the Commanders.

As miserable as things were for the Bengals’ defense, they mostly did whatever they wanted on offense, putting up 33 points and scoring on every possession but one (a missed field goal). Carolina is dead-last in opponent points per game and has the league’s second-worst red zone defense.

Burrow made Dalton expendable in Cincinnati and is more trustworthy in this spot. He’s 7-3 in his career when favored by at least a field goal on the road, so we’ll wager on the Bengals (-4.5) covering in Charlotte.

The Texans played poorly in last week’s lopsided loss to the Vikings, while the Jaguars endured a historic loss to the Bills on Monday Night Football.

Houston has yet to match its preseason hype, but Trevor Lawrence has regressed dramatically. Jacksonville has lost each of his last eight starts, and Doug Pedersen is the odds-on favorite to be the first head coach fired this season.

Lawrence is 24-31 against the spread, plus he’s on the road in a short week. We like the Texans (-6.5) to bounce back and cover at home.

Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels demolished the Bengals on Monday night, scoring on every possession that didn’t include a kneel-down and winning outright as a road underdog of more than a touchdown.

Washington did not win because of its defense, though, as the Commanders never forced a punt or turnover. Dan Quinn’s defense remains last in DVOA.

The Cardinals lost as home favorites last week to the Lions, but their offense is still eighth-best in DVOA and their defense should provide decent resistance to Washington’s running game (only five teams are allowing fewer yards per rushing attempt).

There’s a lot to like about Daniels, but not enough that we’re going to wager on a rookie in consecutive weeks on the road, especially when he’s had one less day to prepare. We’ll lay the points and bet on Arizona (-3.5).

After two surprisingly strong efforts to open the season, the Patriots took a major step back during their lifeless loss to the Jets last Thursday. Meanwhile, the banged-up 49ers blew a late lead against the Rams despite being heavily favored.

We think New England bounces back this week with extra rest against San Francisco’s depleted roster. Brock Purdy’s 18-9 when favored, but there’s too much uncertainty with the 49ers for us to feel comfortable taking them as a double-digit favorite against any opponent.

We’ll take the points and hope the Patriots (+10.5) are as competitive as they were during Weeks 1 and 2.

Two teams that suffered embarrassing home losses last week square off in Vegas. The Browns were pushed around in their own stadium by the Giants, while the Raiders allowed Andy Dalton to drop 36 points on them at home.

Antonio Pierce said after Las Vegas’ loss that some of his players made “business decisions” against Carolina. Our business decision will be on his players responding and Deshaun Watson’s popularity in Cleveland continuing to plummet.

No quarterback has been sacked more this season, and he’s just 13-19-2 as a favorite in his career. Meanwhile, the Browns’ offense is 31st in DVOA this year and has committed the second-most penalties in the NFL.

In a game that’s essentially pick ‘em, our money is on the home team (-1.5).

Justin Herbert’s extensive history of playing through injury means he’ll likely play this week after leaving last week’s loss with an ankle injury. He isn’t the only key player on the Chargers’ offense dealing with health issues, however, as both of their tackles also left the game and two of their receivers sat out.

The Chiefs have played unevenly on offense despite their 3-0 start, and they’ve been a shaky team to bet on as a big favorite in the Patrick Mahomes era. Mahomes is just 5-10-1 against the spread when his team is favored by more than a touchdown on the road.

Taking the points with Los Angeles is tempting, especially considering that Kansas City hasn’t won a regular-season game by more than eight points since Week 15 of last season. However, it’s tough to trust the Chargers this week with all of their injuries on offense. We’re backing the Chiefs (-7) as big road favorites.

The 3-0 Bills look like the NFL’s best team, while the 1-2 Ravens look like a team that could lay claim to that title if games had three quarters instead of four. A week after blowing a ten-point fourth-quarter lead and losing to the Raiders at home, Baltimore nearly coughed up a 22-point lead to Dallas in the final frame but hung on for its first win.

Buffalo hung 47 points on Jacksonville on Monday and has the NFL’s top-ranked offense in DVOA. Josh Allen is the current betting favorite to win the MVP award and could keep rolling against a Ravens pass defense that’s 24th in expected points added.

These teams could meet again in the postseason, but the Bills are playing like a much better team at the moment. We’ll take the points with the team that has shown it can play four quarters and back Buffalo (+2.5).

A primetime matchup between Will Levis and Tua Tagovailoa’s backup probably works against the case for there being two Monday Night Football games, but here we are.

The Dolphins have been outscored 54-13 over their past two games but are still favored in this one. These two offenses are both bottom-three in expected points added per play, so perhaps the Under is a better move than any wager on the spread.

Betting on Levis and his unending parade of turnovers isn’t the wisest investment, but we’ll hold our nose and bet on the team that has its starting quarterback, even if he probably shouldn’t be one. We’ll take the Titans (+2.5).

One of the better defensive performances of 2023 came in mid-October when the Ravens held a good Lions offense to just a fourth-quarter touchdown in a blowout in Baltimore. The Ravens’ defensive coordinator in that game was Mike Macdonald, who’s now the head coach of an unbeaten Seahawks team with the second-best defense by DVOA.

This will be Seattle’s toughest test yet, but Detroit ranks in the middle of the pack in both offensive EPA per play and success rate. The Lions also failed to win outright as a favorite in their last home game despite Dan Campbell’s success at covering when his team is giving points (15-9-1).

We’d be lying if we weren’t a little concerned about Geno Smith’s protection, as he was pressured on nearly 43% of his dropbacks last week. He’s had just one turnover-worthy play this season, however, and is off to a better start than Jared Goff.

We’ll side with the Seahawks (+4) on the road.

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