NFL Week 6: Best Spread Bets & Picks

Week 6 opens with a tilt between two NFC West teams that both lost as big home favorites last week. The 49ers blew a fourth-quarter lead against a division foe for the second time in falling to the Cardinals, while the Seahawks fell short against the Giants.

Seattle’s loss was the more instructive of the two, as it allowed a team playing without two of its best offensive weapons to more than double its average rushing output.

San Francisco can’t get reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey back soon enough. Even with a losing record, however, the 49ers still rank eighth in expected points added per offensive play.

Jordan Mason’s advanced metrics are pedestrian, but he’s averaged over five yards per carry in four of San Francisco’s five games in place of McCaffrey. The 49ers finally dusted off Brandon Aiyuk last week as well – a sobering development for a Seahawks defense that’s dropped off ever since it stopped being spoon-fed shaky opposing offenses.

With a Super Bowl rematch against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs looming next week, San Francisco should be focused enough to play a complete game. We’ll lay the points with the 49ers (-3.5).

The Jaguars’ victory over the Colts last week was perhaps a reprieve for head coach Doug Pederson, and it was encouraging if you’re clinging to the belief that Trevor Lawrence could one day be discussed among the league’s best quarterbacks.

Lawrence faces a vastly superior Bears defense this week. Chicago ranks second in pass rush win rate and hasn’t allowed any opponent to score more than 21 points in a game.

Jacksonville’s defense ranks last in EPA and 31st in pass rush win rate – welcome metrics for a rookie quarterback coming off his best game as a pro. The long-awaited big play arrived in Chicago last week with No. 1 draft pick Caleb Williams throwing two touchdown passes of 30-plus yards.

The Bears have covered in each of their last four games as favorites – a streak that should continue on foreign soil. We’ll take Chicago (-1.5) as a slight favorite in London.

This game seemed unlikely to be one of the premier matchups of Week 6 a month ago. The Ravens had just blown a two-score lead at home to the Raiders to fall to 0-2 while the Commanders flailed around offensively in an uninspiring Week 2 win over the Giants.

Four weeks later, Baltimore looks like the team to beat in the AFC North after three straight wins. Meanwhile, Washington is alone atop the NFC East thanks to the league’s most talked-about player – reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels.

The Ravens are No. 1 in offensive DVOA and the Commanders are third, so a shootout could be in play, especially after both teams combined for 75 points last week.

The number here is just a little too hefty considering how well Washington is playing. Only one team has allowed more plays of 20-plus yards than Baltimore, which has allowed 24 through five games. The Commanders’ offense is fifth with 22 such plays.

Reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson was sensational last week, but he’s just 20-31 when the Ravens are favored by more than three points. Our money is on Washington (+6.5).

The Saints have gone from being the talk of the NFL after the first two weeks of the season to immediately crashing back to earth with a three-game losing streak.

All signs point to rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler getting the start instead of Derek Carr on Sunday, as Carr appears set to miss multiple weeks with an oblique injury suffered in Monday night’s loss to the Chiefs. If Rattler isn’t the guy, New Orleans will turn to Jake Haener, who relieved Carr against Kansas City.

The Buccaneers won’t exactly come charging into this one with a full head of steam, however, after allowing Kirk Cousins to pass for 509 yards last Thursday in a game that Tampa Bay simply could not put away.

Sometimes picking a game against the spread requires a deep dive into a bunch of metrics, and sometimes it doesn’t.

This is one of those instances when it doesn’t. The Bucs have scored 63 points over their last two games combined, they have their starting quarterback and they have a four-day rest advantage over the Saints. New Orleans just played Monday night on the road and is only 1-5 against the spread in its last six games on short rest.

We’ll take Tampa Bay (-3.5) on the road.

There might not be a bigger dumpster fire right now than the Browns, who have failed to score more than 17 points in any game this season and have a quarterback who couldn’t be less popular. Putting a bag of cash in an actual flaming garbage receptacle might be a better investment than wagering on Deshaun Watson & Co.

And yet, laying a large number of points with the Eagles is just too dicey. Jalen Hurts commits too many turnovers – he has one in nine straight games — and Philadelphia’s slow starts are concerning. The Eagles have zero points in the first quarter this year.

Cleveland’s defense has regressed in many areas, but it’s still a top-four unit in pass rush and run-stop win rate. Philadelphia should be healthier coming out of its bye week with receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith set to return along with tackle Lane Johnson, and Nick Sirianni is 3-0 straight up after bye weeks, but this is too big of a number to lay with a team as untrustworthy as the Eagles.

We’ll hold our nose, consider actually lighting our money on fire, and then make a bet on the Browns (+9.5).

In Indianapolis, head coach Shane Steichen is trying to figure out if Anthony Richardson is healthy enough to start after Joe Flacco threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s loss to the Jaguars.

In Nashville, head coach Brian Callahan is trying to determine whether Will Levis’ shoulder issues have subsided enough to allow his turnover-prone quarterback to return after leaving Tennessee’s Week 4 win over the Dolphins.

With so much uncertainty (and mediocrity) surrounding the sport’s most important position, it’s probably wise to focus on defense, where the Titans are better. The Colts allowed Trevor Lawrence to throw for 371 yards last week while Jacksonville rushed for 5.5 yards per carry. Tennessee ranks first in defensive success rate, second in fewest yards allowed per play and fifth in EPA per play on defense.

With the Titans’ edge on defense and home-field advantage, we’ll back Tennessee (-2.5).

Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo is giving rookie quarterback Drake Maye his first NFL start.

On the surface, it makes sense for New England to turn to the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Patriots are just 1-4, Jacoby Brissett was merely a placeholder, and the offense clearly needs a spark (31st in points per game).

However, Maye isn’t being set up for success. No team has allowed a higher percentage of pressures per dropback (36%) than New England, and only one team has allowed more hits to its quarterback.

The Texans are fourth in pass rush win rate and held Buffalo’s Josh Allen to just nine completions and 131 passing yards last week.

Houston will not have Nico Collins (IR) in this game and may be without Joe Mixon (ankle) as well. The Texans have struggled to close out games and are unreliable against the spread (1-3-1), but the Patriots look like the NFL’s worst team right now.

As much as we’d like to find a good reason to side with a team that’s getting a touchdown at home during a season when underdogs have rolled, we can’t find one. We’ll lay the big number and take Houston (-6.5).

The Cardinals are a weird team. They’ve won by 31 points, they’ve lost by 28, and they’ve played three games decided by less than a touchdown, including last week’s one-point win over the 49ers.

The Packers have played in four games decided by six points or less, including last week’s 24-19 comeback victory over the Rams that was closer than it should have been.

So Arizona is all over the place, while Green Bay is pretty consistent despite losing Jordan Love for two games. The Packers could be more reliable on third down, however (only six teams have converted at a lower rate over the last three weeks), and no quarterback has faced more blitzes per game than Love, who has the league’s second-worst completion percentage over expectation.

The Cardinals blitzed more frequently than any team in Week 5, and it worked. Look for them to follow a similar strategy here and disrupt Love enough to keep the game close. Our play is on Arizona (+5.5).

If you like even matchups and defense, this AFC West battle is your jam. Both teams rank in the top five in defensive DVOA and are bottom 10 in offensive DVOA.

These teams have two of the worst offenses in the sport, and no team has put together fewer competent drives than the Chargers. Los Angeles leads the league in percentage of three-and-outs (51%), and only two teams have allowed opponents to score on a lower percentage of drives than the Broncos.

It’s tempting to back the team coming off a bye (Los Angeles), but Denver is hitting its stride with three straight wins. Bo Nix has also stopped throwing interceptions, which is nice.

We’ll back the Broncos (+3) as a slight underdog at home.

Russell Wilson is back to practicing as a full participant in Pittsburgh, meaning that Justin Fields will have an even shorter leash if he ends up starting in Vegas this weekend.

The Raiders are pivoting to second-year QB Aidan O’Connell – who started 10 games as a rookie last season – after benching Gardner Minshew during last week’s blowout loss to the Broncos. Now he’ll get to play behind an offensive line allowing a league-high percentage of sacks on non-blitzed dropbacks (10.7%).

Las Vegas’ issues extend to its defense, which ranks 29th in DVOA. Maybe O’Connell will provide an upgrade, but we expect this game to be decided by the better defensive unit, which is clearly the Steelers in this case (second-fewest points allowed).

We’ll take Pittsburgh (-3) to cover a field goal on the road.

This week’s “sell high” candidate is the Falcons, who sit atop the NFC South but have a negative point differential and are maybe five plays away from being winless.

The Panthers’ resurgence under Andy Dalton was fun while it lasted, but Chuba Hubbard remains the team’s workhorse. He leads the NFL in rushing success rate (67.6%) by a comfortable margin and is poised for a big game against Atlanta, which ranks 30th in defensive rushing success rate.

Dalton’s in line for a solid day as well. The Falcons rank 15th in expected points added by passing defense, and no team sacks the quarterback on a lower percentage of dropbacks than Atlanta.

Atlanta is entertaining to watch, but it’s an unreliable investment. We’ll take the points and put our money on Carolina (+6.5) at home.

The people on TV and sports radio were able to shout nice things about the Cowboys on Monday morning after Dallas’ comeback win in Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football.

No one yelled much of anything about the Lions, however, mainly because they were off last week. But when they did last take the field, they were impressive in hammering a then-unbeaten Seahawks squad 42-19.

Detroit has two clear advantages against the Cowboys. One is that it leads the NFL in adjusted offensive line yards, while Dallas is 30th in run-stop win rate.

The Lions also have the current betting favorite for Defensive Player of the Year in Aidan Hutchinson, who leads the NFL in sacks (6.5) with an astounding 40 QB pressures in just four games. He should wreak havoc on a Cowboys offensive line that’s middle-of-the-pack in most pass-blocking metrics.

Dallas may have won last week, but it was sloppy. We like Detroit (-3) coming off a bye as a road favorite.

Give the Giants credit. After weeks of looking like a team that would contend for the top pick in next year’s draft, New York went to Seattle and beat the heavily favored Seahawks despite having neither Malik Nabers nor Devin Singletary. Daniel Jones played efficiently, the special teams came up big with a touchdown return off a blocked field goal, and now the Giants have some life.

But if there’s a “buy low” candidate this week, it’s the Bengals. Cincinnati has scored 105 points over its last three games with an offense that’s second in both EPA per play and success rate.

The Bengals have the most efficient offense since the arrival of Joe Burrow, who leads the NFL in touchdown passes and has better passing metrics than his MVP finalist season of 2022. He’s also being sacked less frequently than at any point in his career.

The problem is that Cincinnati is a trainwreck on defense. The Bengals are allowing the second-most points per game and are 1-2 in their last three games despite topping 30 points in all three.

New York is less imposing, ranking 17th in offensive DVOA despite having two games without an offensive touchdown. Cincinnati may be flawed, but it can’t be dismissed with an offense that ranks second in offensive DVOA.

We’ll take the Bengals (-3.5) as road favorites.

If you wagered on Robert Saleh being the first head coach to lose his job this year, congratulations. If you’ve had this matchup between Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers circled because you were expecting offensive fireworks, then our apologies.

These offenses have been among the worst in offensive success rate the last two weeks. Allen completed just nine of 30 passes last week in a game where Houston defenders dribbled his head off the turf, while Rodgers went to London with the body language of a guy whose wife is making him spend an NFL Sunday sipping cider at a pumpkin patch.

Bills fans are taking solace in the fact that their team has lost consecutive games in every season of the Josh Allen era and has usually bounced back. Jets fans are taking solace in the fact that both of New York’s baseball teams are playing in October.

Interim head coaches are 16-11 in their debuts since 2010, and for all of their issues, the Jets still have a positive point differential. Had Rodgers not uncharacteristically thrown three interceptions last week, New York might have won and saved Saleh’s job.

The Jets might be a punchline, but we’re getting points with a team playing at home that could get a boost from its new head coach. We’ll invest in New York (+2.5) as a home underdog.

Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images