NFL Week 7: Best Spread Bets & Picks

The main storyline in the first game of Week 7 is about Broncos head coach Sean Payton’s return to New Orleans to face the team he led for 15 seasons and won a Super Bowl with in 2009.

Another storyline is about the Saints going from the NFL’s darlings after two weeks to a home underdog this week against a team with one of the league’s most inefficient offenses.

Derek Carr’s absence last week helped extend New Orleans’ losing streak to four games, but the bigger culprit was a defense that allowed 51 points and nearly 600 yards to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Saints’ defense should have a much easier time against Bo Nix & Co. Denver was held scoreless into the third quarter last week and has been shut out in the first half three times in six games.

The Broncos do have the best unit of either team, though, with a defense that’s seventh in DVOA. They also won convincingly against the same Buccaneers team that dominated New Orleans last week and have a slight quarterback edge this week with Nix going against Spencer Rattler.

We’ll lay the points and back Denver (-3) on the road.

After getting walloped by the Bears last week in London, the Jaguars get to stay in the UK for another week while rumors of their head coach’s demise swirl back home.

The Patriots head overseas with Drake Maye preparing for his second NFL start. Maye had his moments last week in his debut, just not enough of them. The Texans came into Foxborough and won by 20 points in a game that really wasn’t even that close.

Jacksonville played consecutive games in London last season and upset the Bills as a 5.5-point underdog in the second game of its stay. That experience is worth keeping in mind when you remember that New England has a rookie quarterback/head coach combo and looks like one of the worst teams in the league.

These are two of the worst four teams in defensive DVOA, so it would be unsurprising if we get a second straight London game that exceeds the Over/Under. The Jaguars will be more rested than the Patriots after not traveling this week, so we’ll take Jacksonville (-5.5) in its home away from home.

After demolishing the Cowboys on the road last week, the Lions have the second-best odds to win the NFC (+370) behind the 49ers. The team just behind Detroit is the undefeated Vikings (+550), who are favored after their bye in a battle for first place in the NFL’s most competitive division.

Unfortunately, the Lions’ dominant win over Dallas came at a heavy cost. Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Aidan Hutchinson broke his tibia and required instant surgery, leaving a giant hole in Detroit’s defense.

The Lions are capable of staying in contention without Hutchinson, but there’s no replacing a player of his caliber and his absence will be felt against Minnesota.

Sam Darnold has excelled this season thanks to having the second-highest pocket time per dropback. He’s also established excellent chemistry with Justin Jefferson, who’s averaged over 185 receiving yards per game in his last three matchups with Detroit, whose expected points added by pass defense is -0.43.

The Vikings bring a rested defense that tops the league in DVOA. This game could be a lot of fun, but we think bettors who side with the home team will enjoy it the most. We’ll lay the points with Minnesota (-2).

The Browns will continue banging their heads against a wall and start Deshaun Watson again despite failing to score 18 points or gain 300 yards of offense in any game this year.

And that was before Cleveland traded Amari Cooper to the Bills on Tuesday, taking away Watson’s top wideout.

Last week, the Bengals did what many figured they couldn’t, which was win a game without its offense being productive. Cincinnati covered as a road favorite against the Giants on Sunday Night Football, with its beleaguered defense holding New York to just seven points.

Joe Burrow’s team has a pulse after improving to 2-4, but their tasks this week include exorcising some demons. The Bengals are just 1-5 in Burrow’s starts against the Browns and have never beaten them on the road with him as the starting quarterback.

Cincinnati remains a solid “buy low” candidate when investing in playoff futures, but they’ve already lost outright twice when laying 6.5 points or more. Burrow was also sacked four times by the Giants and could be in trouble against a Cleveland defense that ranks third in pass rush win rate.

Browns running back Nick Chubb is set to return from the IR against a Bengals defense that’s next-to-last in expected points contributed by its rushing defense. Cleveland continues to be laughed at, but it did cover as a big road underdog last week in Philadelphia and can probably use Chubb to shorten the game just enough to keep things reasonably close.

We’ll back the Browns (+6) as home ‘dogs in the Battle of Ohio.

The NFL’s two breakout quarterbacks from last season meet for the first time with C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love both coming off impressive performances.

Stroud was still productive despite not having Nico Collins (IR) last week, throwing three touchdowns and hanging 41 points on the Patriots. Meanwhile, Joe Mixon returned from injury to gain 132 yards from scrimmage and score two touchdowns.

Despite his success against New England, Stroud did seem to miss Collins, finishing with his lowest yardage total of the season (192).

The Packers are second in explosive plays per game and lead the league in turnover margin. Love also has the lowest sack percentage of any qualified quarterback.

It might be fair to not get too excited about Green Bay given who its last two wins have come against (Rams and Cardinals), and the fluidity of its kicker situation may give some bettors pause. However, we’ll take the team that’s good at creating turnovers against an opponent that’s second-to-last in early-down success rate.

We’ll go with the Packers (-2.5) at home.

The Bills upgraded their mediocre receiving corps this week by acquiring Cooper from the Browns, giving Josh Allen a much-needed weapon.

The Will Levis experience continues to be a disaster in Nashville, as the Titans fell apart in the fourth quarter and lost to the Colts last week.

Tennessee’s defense continues to be respectable, however, leading the NFL in success rate. While the Titans’ 1-4 record is uninspiring, three of their losses have been one-possession games.

Buffalo may have a firm grasp on the AFC East after ending its two-game losing streak on Monday night, but Allen has been a poor investment when his team is a heavy favorite. The Bills have covered in just eight of 26 games with him at quarterback when they’ve laid four points or more.

Cooper will help Buffalo’s’ offense, but he may need some time to get up to speed. And while the Bills pulled out a much-needed win over the Jets on Monday, their performance wasn’t inspiring enough to make us feel good about laying a big number.

We’ll take Tennessee (+9) and the points.

Even flash-in-the-pan celebrities don’t fall from grace as quickly as the Seahawks, who were undefeated through three weeks, then fell to .500 by losing three games in 11 days.

After feasting on Bo Nix (in his first career start), Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson, Seattle has lost to Jared Goff, Daniel Jones and Brock Purdy.

The Seahawks face another tough quarterback this week in Kirk Cousins, who ranks fourth in passing yards. The Falcons can also run the ball, racking up 198 rushing yards and 38 points (both season highs) against the Panthers last week in their third straight week.

These teams seem headed in opposite directions right now, so we’ll take Atlanta (-3) at home.

Saquon Barkley returns to East Rutherford to face a defense that just held the high-octane Bengals to two touchdowns on Sunday night.

The Giants did not beat Cincinnati, but they sacked Burrow four times and pressured him on over 40% of his dropbacks. New York leads the league in sacks while ranking fifth and sixth in pass rush and run stop win rate, respectively.

The Eagles still have yet to score in the first quarter, and Jalen Hurts has twice as many turnover-worthy plays as he does “big-time throws,” according to Pro Football Focus.

It will be worth watching to see if the Giants get Malik Nabers back from the NFL’s concussion protocol, and the possibility of a Barkley revenge game exists. So does the possibility of Nick Sirianni yelling at Philadelphia fans some more given how many will probably be in attendance at MetLife Stadium.

Our money is on those Eagles fans having something to boo about. We’ll take the Giants (+3) at home.

The Dolphins continue to be atrocious in the absence of Tua Tagovailoa. Tyler Huntley doesn’t have a completion of more than 21 yards, and Miami has sunk to 31st in offensive DVOA.

The Colts have won three of their last four games, all of which were decided by one possession. Given their propensity for playing in tight games, laying points with them gives us pause.

De’Von Achane is due to return for the Dolphins, who will surely try to test an Indianapolis defense that’s 23rd in run stop success rate and third from the bottom in adjusted line yards on defense.

This game could be ugly, but we’ll bank on a big rushing game for Miami (+3) and back the road team.

Even after a loss to the Ravens, the Commanders’ hype train keeps on rolling. Jayden Daniels may not have outplayed Lamar Jackson, but he certainly looked like he belonged on the same field as last year’s MVP in a seven-point road defeat.

The Panthers are the NFL’s worst team against the spread through six weeks at 1-5 with their five defeats coming by an average of 22.8 points.

It’s still tempting to take the points. Only three teams are allowing more yards per carry than Washington, and Carolina’s Chuba Hubbard is second among all running backs in rushing success rate.

That said, the Commanders have the NFL’s second-best offense in DVOA, and investing in the Panthers means believing in either Andy Dalton to keep pace with Daniels or in Carolina to get the defensive stops that have eluded them all season.

We believe in neither. Give us Washington (-8) as a heavy home favorite.

The story of the Rams’ season so far has been injuries, especially the ones to top receivers Cooper Kupp (ankle) and Puka Nacua (knee).

Kupp’s potential return this week is worth monitoring, as it would give Los Angeles a boost coming off its bye.

Even if he doesn’t, the Rams are still in a good spot at home against the hapless Raiders, who traded away Davante Adams this week. The punch they played with late last season under Antonio Pierce is a distant memory now that he’s the permanent (sort of) head coach, and they have somehow managed to stage the NFL’s least-interesting quarterback competition maybe ever.

Las Vegas has holes all over the roster. It’s given up 32-plus points in three of its past four games, is 29th in offensive DVOA and ranks 25th in both defensive and special teams DVOA.

Los Angeles is flawed as well, but it should be good enough to cover a touchdown against a team that’s as uninteresting as it is bad. We’ll take the Rams (-6.5) at home.

If you make a dollar every time you hear about Andy Reid’s record coming out of a bye week (21-4) and Patrick Mahomes’ record against the spread as an underdog (7-1-1), then you’ll likely have enough money to afford tickets to see Travis Kelce’s girlfriend in concert.

Those figures matter, but so does the fact that the Chiefs are sorely lacking weapons (we need more than one good game from JuJu Smith-Shuster to believe in his revival). They’re also playing against a 49ers defense that’s tightened up in recent weeks against the pass, as opposing quarterbacks have a passer rating of just 70.6 across their last three games.

Brock Purdy leads the NFL in yards per completion, is fourth in passing success rate and has committed no turnover-worthy plays when pressured.

Kansas City has found a way to enter this Super Bowl rematch undefeated despite its offensive unevenness, but it’s due for a loss eventually after winning four of its first five games by one possession.

Our money is on San Francisco (-1.5) exacting revenge and covering at home.

The Jets enter this game on a three-game losing streak, and yet they’re still getting points on the road against a team that’s 4-2. At least they have Davante Adams now, who will try to help New York recover from their 2-4 start.

The Steelers won on the road against the Raiders last week in spite of Justin Fields, and speculation has grown since that Russell Wilson is about to take over at quarterback.

Regardless of who plays QB for Pittsburgh, the defense still has T.J. Watt, who will chase after Aaron Rodgers playing behind an offensive line that’s just 25th in pass block win rate.

The Jets have mostly held their own on defense this season, and we might consider taking them if the spread was reversed. Mike Tomlin covers nearly 65% of the time when his team is an underdog, however, and he’s facing an interim head coach and a team that can’t seem to get out of its own way.

We’ll side with the Steelers (+1.5) as slight home underdogs.

It’s not often that a team is a home underdog a week after scoring 51 points, but that’s the spot the Buccaneers find themselves in against a Ravens team that’s won four in a row.

Baltimore is humming on offense (fourth in scoring, first in yardage) and has the league’s best run defense. It struggles against the pass, however, ranking sixth from the bottom in EPA per dropback and allowing the second-most passing yards per game.

Baker Mayfield leads the league in passing success rate, helping Tampa Bay score 30-plus points in four of its last six games.

Jackson is 34-34 as a favorite and just 8-18 when his team is giving more than a field goal, so we’re backing the Bucs (+3.5) as home underdogs.

The Chargers were able to get some things going offensively, particularly in the first half, against the Broncos last week. Los Angeles leaned heavily on J.K. Dobbins, who ran for 96 yards and a touchdown on a career-high 25 carries.

That workload should continue against a Cardinals defense that ranks 27th in run stop success rate. Arizona has lost three of its last four games as its offense has faltered, averaging just 16 points per game during that stretch.

The Cardinals may continue to struggle against a Chargers unit that ranks third in DVOA. Arizona may also be without top receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who’s currently in concussion protocol.

Even if he’s available, the Cardinals will have their hands full against a defense that ranks first in fewest points per drive and a head coach who’s 33-20 as a favorite. We’ll lay the points and bet on Los Angeles (-2.5).