NFL Week 7: Worst Betting Bad Beats

By Henry Palattella , Tyler Maher
Editor , Editor
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NFL Week 7: Worst Betting Bad Beats
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For bettors, few phrases can send a cold chill down their spines faster than “bad beat.” Ask any gambler, and you’ll likely be inundated with stories of all the money they lost from bad beats. 

For the uninitiated, bad beat originated as a poker term to describe something unlucky that costs you a win. The same applies to sports betting, but instead of getting hurt by the river card, you lose your college basketball bet because a seventh-year walk-on makes a meaningless 3-pointer with seven seconds left in a blowout.

While every sport has its own version of bad beat (every garbage-time bucket or touchdown means something to someone), the NFL has plenty of situations that can result in bad beats. 

For the rest of the NFL season, we’ll rehash the pain and misery by breaking down the worst beats each week. After all, one person’s bad beat is another person’s payday. 

Here are the worst beats from Week 7 of the 2024 season.

Late Garbage-Time Touchdown Swings TNF Total

Last week gave us a Thursday Night Football “classic” that harkened back to simpler times. While Thursday games are now on Amazon’s snazzy broadcast and feature marquee matchups, there used to be a time when the Thursday night game featured two bad teams playing in Color Rush uniforms. 

While there weren’t any Color Rush uniforms on the field for Thursday’s game between the New Orleans Saints and Denver Broncos, the score certainly made it seem like it. The Broncos thumped the Saints 33-10 in Sean Payton’s return to the Big Easy, with Denver almost single-handedly hitting the Over after the total closed at 37. 

It took a miraculous finish for that to happen, however, as the teams combined for 14 points over the last four minutes of the game after only combining for 29 points over the first 56 minutes of the game. 

It started with a 52-yard fumble return for a touchdown from Cody Barton with 4:06 left. Amazon broadcaster Al Michaels joked that there were plenty of people who wanted Denver to go for two (since that would lead to the Over hitting), but the Broncos opted for the extra point instead, making the score 33-3.

Over bettors got their wish on New Orleans’ next possession when third-string QB Jake Haener came in for Spencer Rattler and finished off a 79-yard drive with a 12-yard touchdown pass to Cedrick Wilson. 

While the touchdown didn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, it had a huge impact on bet slips throughout the country.

Decision-Changing Penalty Has Huge Spread Impact 

While the Las Vegas Raiders lost starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell to a thumb injury early in their game against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, the Raiders kept things close and still had a chance to tie the game late in the fourth quarter.

Down 20-12, Las Vegas was staring at a fourth-and-goal from the Rams’ four-yard line with 2:50 left.

Not only would a Raiders touchdown and two-point conversion have tied the game at 20, but it also would have likely clinched a cover as +7.5 underdogs on the spread. Meanwhile, a defensive stop by Los Angeles likely would have guaranteed a cover on its side.

Unfortunately, neither team got the chance. Las Vegas offensive lineman DJ Glaze committed a false start that pushed the Raiders back to the nine-yard line. Rather than go for it, Las Vegas kicked a field goal, making it a five-point game.

After a Rams punt and Gardner Minshew’s third interception of the day, Los Angeles secured the 20-15 win. However, it was the Raiders who covered.

Sloppy Second Half Leads To Rare Spread Cover

The first half of the Houston Texans’ duel against the Green Bay Packers had everything you want in a football game, including long touchdowns, interceptions and incredible play from two young quarterbacks.

Then things changed in the second half.

After the Texans entered halftime with a 19-14 lead, both teams combined to score just 13 points in the second half as the Packers pulled out a 24-22 win. 

While that slow second half resulted in Under 47.5 hitting, it also produced a unique outcome on the spread, which Houston covered as a 2.5-point underdog.

Entering Week 7, only seven NFL games had been decided by fewer than three points this season. Accordingly, betting a favorite of fewer than three points on the spread usually makes sense, whereas taking an underdog at less than +3 typically isn’t worth it.

Neither of those outcomes came true in this game, however. Houston covered as a 2.5-point underdog (but didn’t win), while Green Bay won but didn’t cover as a 2.5-point favorite. 

While there were many plays that could be tied back to such an unusual outcome, none stand out more than the Texans failing on a two-point conversion at the end of the first half. 

Had Houston converted, the score would have been 24-24 at the end of regulation, which meant a team likely would have won by either a field goal or touchdown in overtime, thus covering the 2.5 points.

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Henry Palattella
Henry Palattella Editor

Henry Palattella is a writer and editor based in Cleveland, Ohio, where he can usually be found ranting to his cat about how injuries robbed Grady Sizemore of a Hall of Fame career. He also works as a writer for MLB.com along with freelancing for numerous publications in Northeast Ohio. A native of Erie, Pennsylvania, he is a graduate of Kent State University, where he graduated the same year that Julian Edelman completed his degree.

Tyler Maher
Tyler Maher Editor

Tyler is the Deputy Editor of Forbes Betting, helping expand the vertical since its launch in 2022. Before joining Forbes, he worked for MLB.com, The Game Day and Minute Media. Originally from the Boston area, he graduated from Tufts University in 2015 and currently lives in Providence, RI.