NFL Week 8: Best Spread Bets & Picks

The Rams are coming off a victory over the Raiders in which they forced four turnovers, and the expectation is that wide receiver Cooper Kupp will play for the first time since suffering an injury in Week 2. So the vibes should be good in LA right now, no?

Meh, not really. Los Angeles basically took advantage of Las Vegas’ ineptitude, as none of the Rams’ scoring drives were longer than 47 yards.

There are also reports that Kupp is being shopped as the trade deadline approaches, which isn’t what you want to hear if you’re counting on a second-half surge by Los Angeles.

Some air may have come out of the Vikings’ balloon last week, as they blew an early lead at home to the Lions and suffered their first loss of the season. That game felt more like a statement from Detroit than an indictment against Minnesota, though.

The Vikings are formidable defensively, ranking first in the NFL in pressure rate and third in expected points added per dropback.

Matthew Stafford may finally have Kupp to throw to, but Pro Football Focus ranks him 32nd out of 38 quarterbacks when facing pressure, and the Rams’ offensive line is just 22nd in pass block win rate.

As good as Los Angeles was defensively against the Raiders, it still ranks 26th in EPA per dropback and only four teams are allowing more yards per pass attempt. Sam Darnold ranks fourth in air yards per dropback for Minnesota.

The Vikings have covered in both of their road games this season, and last week’s loss has brought the line down just enough.

We feel comfortable laying the points and taking Minnesota (-3) on the road.

This game has our largest point spread of the season so far, and understandably so for anyone who watched these teams last week. The Titans opened up a 10-point lead on the road against the Bills, only to get outscored 27-0 in the second half of a blowout loss. Meanwhile, the Lions fell behind by 10 against the previously undefeated Vikings before pulling out a signature win on the road.

It’s not easy laying a big number like this, but Detroit’s offense is on fire right now, averaging a staggering 0.7 points per play over their last three games. Even without Jameson Williams, there’s no reason to believe that pace will slow.

Tennessee ranks 27th in offensive DVOA and has the league’s second-worst second-half point differential (-51), so a backdoor cover isn’t worth betting on.

Nothing about the Titans is, actually, especially against an opponent that has covered at a league-best 71% clip at home since the start of the 2021 season.

We’ll lay the big number and back the Lions (-11.5) at home.

Third-string quarterback Jameis Winston is expected to start for the Browns after Deshaun Watson went down with a season-ending Achilles injury last week. It will be his first start since 2022 when he was with the New Orleans Saints.

Winston has more interceptions (eight) than touchdown passes (seven) over the last three seasons, but it’s hard to imagine he will perform as poorly as Watson did before his injury. Similarly, it’s impossible to imagine that the Ravens can play any better offensively than they did against the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.

Lamar Jackson was incredible against Tampa Bay, throwing five touchdown passes and leading Baltimore to a fifth straight win. The Ravens look like the AFC’s best team despite having two more losses than the Chiefs, but this will be their second straight road game, this time on a short week.

It’s also fair to expect Cleveland to play with some energy following the change at QB after five consecutive losses.

Home underdogs of more than a touchdown have covered at a 60% clip since the start of the 2020 season. Despite making an MVP statement as a road favorite last week, Jackson is still just 9-18-1 when Baltimore is laying more than a field goal.

The Ravens have also taken their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter multiple times this season, including Monday night when they allowed 21 points in garbage time.

With that in mind, we’ve somehow talked ourselves into backing the Browns (+8.5) as big home underdogs.

The Jaguars return from their two-game trip abroad hoping to repeat last year’s post-London surge. Jacksonville, who won three straight after returning home last season, is coming off a dominant 32-16 win over the Patriots.

That said, Drake Maybe still threw for 276 yards and two touchdowns last week against a Jaguars pass defense that ranks last in DVOA, EPA per play and EPA per dropback.

Jordan Love does lead the NFL in interceptions (eight), but he also has the league’s highest touchdown rate (8.4%) and is 4-1 against the spread in his last five road games. The Packers have a top-five offense in DVOA and now face the league’s worst red zone defense that’s allowed touchdowns over 78% of the time in the red zone.

Trevor Lawrence has played capably in recent weeks, but we’re not getting enough points to put our trust in him overcoming his team’s shaky defense. We’ll take Green Bay (-4) as a road favorite.

Anthony Richardson returned from injury last week and helped the Colts pull out a 16-10 home win against the Dolphins. He completed just 10-of-24 passes, however, and ranks last among NFL quarterbacks in adjusted completion rate.

Indianapolis could get Jonathan Taylor back from an ankle injury this week, but this won’t be an ideal matchup if he does return. The Texans rank second in run stop win rate.

Houston’s offense played unevenly without Nico Collins last week against the Packers, but Joe Mixon’s return has been a plus. He’s rushed for 217 yards combined over the Texans’ last two games, and the defense is worth leaning on against a quarterback who ranks as the worst in the league against the blitz (per PFF). Houston’s blitz rate is middle of the pack, but it’s fourth in pass rush win rate.

C.J. Stroud is more reliable than Richardson and we get to lay less than a touchdown, so we’ll take the Texans (-5) as home favorites.

The Bengals lost four of their first five games despite having one of the league’s most efficient offenses, but have since won two straight despite a significant offensive dropoff.

The key, along with a softer schedule, has been Cincinnati’s defense, which has allowed just 21 points over its last two games combined after surrendering 29 points per game through Week 5.

Joe Burrow hasn’t put up huge numbers over his last two games, but he didn’t turn the ball over in either game and has taken good care of the football this year. No quarterback with more than 190 pass attempts has a lower interception percentage (0.9%).

Saquon Barkley will be a handful for a Bengals defense that ranks 25th in run stop win rate, but it did hold Nick Chubb to just two yards per carry in last week’s win over the Browns. Jalen Hurts has taken better care of the ball recently, but he’s still near the bottom of the league in expected completion percentage.

The Eagles still haven’t scored in the first quarter this season and have covered in just 13 of their last 33 road games. Cincinnati hasn’t won at home yet this year (0-3) but covered as a road favorite the last two weeks, so we’ll lay the points and invest in the Bengals (-2.5).

The good news for the Jets is that they get to play the Patriots, whose coach called them soft after losing to the Jaguars in London last week.

The good news for the rest of us is that this game isn’t being shoved down our throats in primetime, giving the country a much-needed break from the world’s most talked about 2-5 team.

New York is a decent “buy low” candidate here, though. It crushed New England 24-3 in Week 3 and is poised to bounce back against an offense that’s 30th in DVOA and 28th in rushing success rate.

The Jets’ defense is fifth in rushing success rate, so the Patriots will likely need to lean on their rookie quarterback.

We don’t see Maye outdueling Aaron Rodgers, especially after losing his first two starts by a combined 36 points. We’ll take New York (-7) to cover in Foxborough.

It’s difficult to suffer a worse loss than the one the Bucs experienced on Monday night. Tampa Bay helplessly allowed 41 points to the Ravens at home and lost its top two wide receivers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) to injury.

The line has shifted from Buccaneers -2.5 to +2.5 as a result, and this feels like a tough turnaround for them on a short week.

The Falcons are coming off a flat performance in a home loss to the Seahawks last week, but they’re only three weeks removed from their thrilling 36-30 overtime victory over Tampa Bay on Thursday Night Football.

The Buccaneers’ running game likely isn’t effective enough to help make up for their suddenly depleted receiving corps, so we’ll wager on Atlanta (-2.5) as a road favorite.

Tua Tagovailoa is eying his return from a concussion this week. Whatever valid concerns there are about whether he should continue playing, it’s undeniable that his team cannot function offensively without him.

Since Tagovailoa left during Week 2’s loss to the Bills, the Dolphins have failed to score more than 16 points in a game. They should be able to lean on De’Von Achane this week with the Cardinals ranking dead last in defensive rushing success rate, but there are simply too many unknowns regarding Tagovailoa’s readiness to feel good about a wager on them, especially when they’re not getting points.

This is a tough spot for Arizona, which is traveling across three time zones for an early game after playing on Monday night. The Cardinals are just 2-6 against the spread in their past eight games on short rest.

That said, we trust Kyler Murray more than Tagovailoa this week, especially when his team is getting points. Our play is on the Cardinals (+4.5).

Amari Cooper joined the Bills last week and made an immediate impact, catching a go-ahead touchdown pass in the third quarter to help Buffalo pull away from the Titans in the second half.

The Seahawks deserve credit for snapping their three-game losing streak last week against the Falcons, but their win was a little flukey. Seattle had fewer yards and first downs, but scored on a fumble return and took advantage of three Atlanta turnovers.

Josh Allen was once the NFL’s avatar for quarterback recklessness, and yet he’s thrown zero interceptions through seven games. Buffalo has the league’s best turnover margin and ranks second in offensive DVOA.

Geno Smith may lead all quarterbacks in completions (173), but he’s just 1-5-1 against the spread in his last seven home starts. We’ll back the Bills (-3) as road favorites.

After scoring 91 points in their first two games, the Saints have scored just 86 over their past five games combined. Injuries are a major reason why, and last week’s Spencer Rattler-led effort against the Broncos in primetime was painful to watch.

It won’t likely be any easier for New Orleans’ offense this week against a Chargers defense that ranks fifth in defensive EPA per dropback while allowing points on just 25% of opposing drives (first in NFL).

Los Angeles’ offense might not inspire a ton of confidence, but it ranks second in rushing success rate and Justin Herbert just threw for a season-high 349 yards on Monday night. The Saints are 31st in run stop success rate and have allowed a whopping 502 yards on the ground over their last two games.

This is a big number to lay for a team that’s scored just nine offensive touchdowns in six games, but we can’t find a reason to bet on Dennis Allen and a rookie quarterback, so we’ll invest in the Chargers (-7) as home favorites.

The Chiefs have earned every bit of praise they’ve received for winning by two scores on the road against the 49ers last week. While it’s fair to wonder how long they can remain unbeaten with Patrick Mahomes throwing more interceptions (eight) than touchdowns (six), you have to respect how they’ve navigated their first six games with a spotless record.

What Kansas City hasn’t earned yet, however, is our trust when covering a big number. Mahomes and the Chiefs have covered just 46% of the time when favored by more than a field goal, and they have only one win this year by more than 10 points (against the collapsing Saints at home).

No one would be surprised if this turned into a lopsided game, but the number is simply too big when considering which side to invest in. We’ll take the points and put our money on the Raiders (+9.5) at home.

No NFL team has a worse point differential than the Panthers, who have been outscored by 133 points this season. For context, the second-worst point differential belongs to the Patriots, who have been outscored by 76 points in the same number of games.

We don’t need to list a bunch of metrics that highlight how bad Carolina is. Instead, we need to find reasons to bet on the Broncos as heavy favorites.

Here’s one: Denver is third in defensive DVOA.

Here’s another: The Broncos are coming off a game in which they had 21 quarterback pressures against the Saints. The Panthers are 27th in pass block win rate.

And one more: Denver is playing Carolina this week.

We’ll bet on the Broncos (-10) at home.

Will Jayden Daniels play after coming out of last week’s lopsided win over the Panthers with a rib injury? If he does, we’ll be treated to a fun matchup involving Daniels and Caleb Williams – the top two picks of the 2024 NFL Draft.

The Bears have feasted on bad opponents, winning three straight games before last week’s bye. Chicago’s defense is legit, ranking in the top four in defensive EPA per play, dropback EPA and dropback success rate.

Williams’ rookie season is progressing nicely and the Bears have unearthed their running game. After a slow start, D’Andre Swift has averaged nearly five yards a carry with three rushing touchdowns over his last three games.

The Commanders are just 27th in rush defense EPA, making this a good spot for Swift.

The big variable is Daniels’ availability, and Washington will understandably use extreme caution with its franchise quarterback. If you really believe in Chicago, consider taking them now before the line moves if Daniels is ruled out.

Regardless of whether Daniels suits up, we’re comfortable investing in the Bears’ defense. We’ll take Chicago (-3) as a slight road favorite.

These two teams are a mess. The Cowboys’ most recent performance was a 40-point home loss to the Lions followed by Jerry Jones getting mad at some radio hosts, while the 49ers’ last game was a 10-point home loss to the Chiefs that included a season-ending injury for Brandon Aiyuk.

San Francisco seems to be collapsing under the weight of so many injuries. For all of his attributes, Brock Purdy probably isn’t capable of elevating such a depleted offense.

Dallas should start getting healthier on defense, and we’ll be scouring the Cowboys’ injury reports to monitor the statuses of Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland.

This number is too inflated to feel good about taking the 49ers with their injury issues. The Cowboys have won outright in all three of their road games this season and have covered in each of their past five games when they’ve gotten extended rest.

We’ll take the points and side with Dallas (+4) on the road.

Russell Wilson took over as the Steelers’ quarterback last Sunday night against the Jets and Pittsburgh’s offense cooked, notching three second-half scoring drives of 75-plus yards in a 37-point outburst that proved the Steelers’ 5-2 start is for real.

On the opposite end, the Giants scored three points at home last week against the Eagles and allowed Saquon Barkley to rush for 176 yards in his return to East Rutherford.

Wilson’s PFF grade against pressure was just 41.5 in his season debut, while New York’s defense ranks seventh in pass rush win rate and leads in the NFL in sacks. Wilson may not have as much success as he did last week.

The Giants have covered in each of their last two road games as underdogs. Switching from Justin Fields to Wilson was probably the right call by Mike Tomlin, but his team is giving too many points for us to feel comfortable backing them, even at home.

We’ll take New York (+6) and the points.