Week 9 of the 2024-25 NFL season includes another primetime force-feeding of one of the league’s biggest underachievers, a homecoming of sorts in Philadelphia, four games involving teams that are still searching for their first home win of the season, a showdown for first place in the NFC North and the league’s only unbeaten team playing on Monday night.
Last week’s full 16-game slate gave us an even split against the spread between favorites and underdogs, with both covering eight times. As we approach the midway point of the season, neither side has an edge. Through 123 games, favorites and underdogs have covered 60 times each, with three games ending in a push.
As was the case last week, we have a decent number of large spreads to analyze in Week 9, with six teams favored by at least 6.5 points. Large underdogs continue to surprise when it comes to straight-up wagers, as underdogs of seven points or more are 9-11 on the moneyline this season.
Let’s look at each matchup (with the favorites listed in parentheses) and run through the best Week 9 spread bets at our favorite NFL betting sites.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and subject to change.
New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans Spread (Titans -3.5)
We’re going to have to do something this week that no one should be required to do. We’re going to spend time monitoring both teams’ injury reports to see which pair of quarterbacks emerge as the starters from a combination of Jacoby Brissett, Drake Maye, Will Levis and Mason Rudolph.
The Titans have one win this season and were smoked by 38 points last week after trading DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs. They’ve lost their last two games by a combined 62 points and have scored more than 17 points only once this season.
The Patriots also made a trade this week, sending Joshua Uche to Kansas City. So we have two franchises playing with an eye on 2025, two teams with rookie head coaches who weren’t set up for success this year, and two of the league’s three worst offenses in DVOA.
Jerod Mayo’s team did get some inspired play from Brissett last week and found a way to beat the Jets despite being seven-point home underdogs. The smart play here is probably to invest (though not heavily) in whichever team is getting points. In this case, that means fading the one that just gave up 52 points and hasn’t covered in any of its home games this season.
We’ll take the points with New England (+3.5) on the road.
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Spread (Saints -7)
For Saints fans, the 47-10 thrashing their team handed the Panthers in Week 1 must feel like it happened lifetimes ago.
For Panthers fans, that game probably feels like it’s been on a never-ending loop all season.
The good news for New Orleans is that Derek Carr seems to be trending toward playing after missing the last three games with an oblique injury.
In Charlotte, the locals who still care about the Panthers’ disastrous season are probably trying to convince themselves that Bryce Young showed just enough in his return to the starting role last week to give them some hope against a horrendous Saints defense.
However, Young played terribly in Carolina’s season-opening blowout loss in New Orleans. He also just lost his top wideout Diontae Johnson, who was traded to the Ravens. Even with Johnson, the Panthers’ offense ranked dead last in expected points added per dropback and next-to-last in dropback success rate.
The Saints’ offense is coming off a putrid eight-point performance in a loss to the Chargers last week, but both Taysom Hill and Chris Olave returned from injury. If Carr does the same, New Orleans’ offense should be more effective this week against a Carolina defense that’s 31st in DVOA.
The Panthers also have the NFL’s worst point differential (-147) by nearly double the second-closest team and are a league-worst 1-7 against the spread, with opposing teams covering by an average of nearly 12 points.
It’s always tempting to take a team when it’s getting a touchdown at home, but we need a reason – any reason – to invest in this Panthers team. Frankly, we can’t find one.
We’ll lay the points and take the Saints (-7) on the road.
Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens Spread (Ravens -9.5)
After feasting on some of the dregs of the NFL in recent weeks, the Broncos are about to prove whether or not they’re for real with road games against the Ravens and Chiefs in the next two weeks.
Baltimore continued its mystifying habit of allowing teams to come back in the fourth quarter last week, succumbing to the Browns in Cleveland while losing for the eighth time since the start of 2022 in a game where it had the lead within the final two minutes.
The Ravens’ defense has allowed a league-high 93 points in the fourth quarter this season, and it will be worth paying attention to the injury report after their top two cornerbacks missed last week and two defensive linemen exited last week’s loss with injuries.
One of Baltimore’s issues is lack of pressure, as its defense ranks just 27th in pressure rate. Denver leads the NFL in pass block win rate, and Bo Nix has completed nearly 83 percent of his passes over his last two games when not facing pressure.
He’s also played his best in the fourth quarter, where he has his highest passer rating compared to the first three frames.
The Broncos’ defense hasn’t faced anyone like Lamar Jackson, but they do rank fifth in defensive DVOA and are in the top seven in both pass block and run block win rate. Those figures may be inflated because of Denver’s easy schedule, but the season’s sample size is large enough to consider the Broncos’ defense a quality unit.
So is Jackson’s sample size in games when his team is laying more than a field goal. Counting last week, he is just 9-19-1 when the Ravens are favored by more than three points.
Whether Denver is stingy enough on defense to make Baltimore uncomfortable all afternoon or opportunistic enough to crash through the backdoor when it opens in the fourth quarter, we like the Broncos and the big number.
Give us Denver (+9.5) on the road.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cincinnati Bengals Spread (Bengals -7.5)
The Bengals enter November still looking for their first home win after losing for the third time as favorites in their own building last week against the Eagles. Cincinnati’s pass rush was AWOL, and Tee Higgins’ absence haunted an offense that started quickly but remains too reliant on Joe Burrow elevating the rest of the unit.
Burrow is the NFL’s highest-graded passer according to Pro Football Focus, but the Bengals’ running game has been dormant, ranking 30th in success rate. Their defense has struggled as well, ranking 30th in EPA per play and success rate.
The Raiders are just as bad at running the ball, ranking dead last in rush EPA and success rate. They also have a massive defensive deficiency with a secondary that ranks last in PFF’s coverage grades.
The difference in a game between two teams with similar metrics should be at quarterback. Gardner Minshew had a respectable performance against a good Chiefs defense last week despite taking five sacks, and Cincinnati’s weak pass rush shouldn’t give him much trouble.
Maxx Crosby is still with Las Vegas, and, beyond checking to see if he gets traded this week despite Mark Davis’ insistence that he’s going nowhere, pay attention to who plays left tackle for the Bengals after Orlando Brown’s removal due to injury from each of their last two games.
Cincinnati’s season is hanging by a thread and the Raiders are going nowhere, but the number here is too hefty and the Bengals are too unreliable to not take the points.
We’ll take Las Vegas (+7.5) on the road.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns Spread (Chargers -1.5)
If there is such a thing as a maddening win, the Browns had one last week. Cleveland earned its first win since Week 2, coming back as a sizable underdog to beat the Ravens at home.
The problem is that now Browns fans can only wonder where their team would be had they pivoted from Deshaun Watson to Jameis Winston earlier in the season.
Despite nearly throwing an interception that would’ve iced the game for Baltimore, Winston played well last week, throwing three touchdown passes while posting his highest passer rating since Week 4 of 2021.
It’s probably not possible for Cleveland to repeat last season’s second-half surge and join the playoff hunt, but the Browns are trending up after getting Nick Chubb back from injury, getting healthier on the offensive line, changing play-calling duties and upgrading at quarterback.
The Chargers have also gotten better quarterback play recently. In the three weeks since their bye, Justin Herbert is averaging nearly two more yards per attempt than before.
Herbert is playing behind an offensive line that’s just 29th in pass block win rate, however, and he’s playing against an opponent that leads in the NFL in pressure rate and ranks third in pass rush win rate.
Cleveland is also third in run-stop win rate, while Los Angeles is second from the bottom in rushing success rate.
Points figure to be at a premium in this one. We’ll grab the Browns (+1.5) as home underdogs.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Spread (Bills -6.5)
The Bills hammered the Dolphins in a Week 2 game that’s mostly remembered for Tua Tagovailoa suffering another concussion.
Tagovailoa returned for Miami last week and helped the Dolphins to their largest offensive output of the season – 27 points against the Cardinals in a tough one-point loss.
That said, Arizona ranks last in the NFL in pass rush success rate. Buffalo is middle of the pack in that metric, but top four in both run-stop win rate and rush defense success rate, so Miami will have tough sledding if it tries to lean on its running game.
Buffalo’s offense was aided by three Miami turnovers in their first meeting, but the Bills have been efficient all season, ranking second in points per play. They’ve also won their last three games against the Dolphins by an average of over 18 points.
We’ll back the Bills (-6.5) as home favorites.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons Spread (Falcons -2.5)
The Cowboys have given up 77 points over their last two games combined as their defense continues to play without Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland. We’ll pay attention to their respective statuses as the week unfolds.
Dallas has struggled on both sides of the ball, ranking 29th in defensive DVOA and 26th in offensive DVOA. The Falcons are sixth in the latter category and also rank third in points per play over the past three weeks. Kirk Cousins & Co. have scored at least 31 points in three of their last four games thanks to the league’s best protection rate.
There just isn’t enough to like about the Cowboys right now to bet on them if they’re not getting more than a field goal, so we like Atlanta (-2.5) at home.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Spread (Commanders -3.5)
The Commanders had the most memorable play of the season so far with their walk-off Hail Mary win last week over the Bears.
It’s fair to say Washington got lucky last week. It’s also fair to wonder whether the Giants can do enough offensively to hang with an offense that ranks in the top five in offensive DVOA and points per play.
Washington settled for seven field goals in its Week 2 home win over New York despite piling up 425 yards of offense. Jayden Daniels has grown a lot since then and has become much more efficient at finishing drives.
The Giants have scored just 28 total points in their last three games combined, so we’ll lay the points and invest in the Commanders (-3.5) as road favorites.
Chicago Bears vs. Arizona Cardinals Spread (Cardinals -1.5)
We have two teams that did the opposite last week. The Bears gagged away a road game on the Commanders’ game-ending Hail Mary while the Cardinals overcame a two-score hole in the fourth quarter to shock Miami.
The crushing defeat for Chicago masked what was an otherwise typically solid defensive effort, as it didn’t allow a touchdown until the final play of the game. The Bears haven’t allowed more than 21 points in a game this season and rank in the top five in EPA per play, success rate and dropback EPA.
Arizona has won three of four and has a chance in the very mediocre NFC West, but its defense is leaky, ranking 24th in opposing points per play and 26th in DVOA. It also ranks dead last in pass rush win rate – an encouraging stat if you’re hoping for a rebound performance from Caleb Williams.
We don’t know how much of an emotional hangover Chicago will be dealing with in the aftermath of last week’s gut-punch, but we still trust its defense to turn in another strong performance.
We’ll take the Bears (+1.5) as slight road favorites.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles Spread (Eagles -7.5)
Former Eagles coach Doug Pederson returns to Philly for the second time as Jacksonville’s head coach, this time clinging to employment. Despite mounting injuries, the Jaguars hung tough last week before losing on a walk-off field goal to the Packers at home.
Meanwhile, Pederson’s old team is starting to resemble the early-season juggernaut of 2023. The Eagles followed their lopsided Week 7 win over the Giants by hammering the Bengals in Cincinnati by 20 points.
Jacksonville enters this game with a depleted receiving corps. Christian Kirk is out for the season after suffering a collarbone injury last week, while Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis may be unavailable as well after leaving last week’s game early.
Philadelphia has allowed just 36 points over its last three games combined and owns the league’s best defense in points per play during that span. While the Eagles’ pass rush this season hasn’t been great, they could take advantage of the Jaguars trading their starting left tackle, Cam Robinson, this week.
With Jalen Hurts taking better care of the ball recently as well, we’ll back Philadelphia (-7.5) at home.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks Spread (Rams -1.5)
The Rams looked rejuvenated with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back from injury and have extra time to rest following last Thursday’s controversial home win over the Vikings.
The schedule and injuries have caught up with the Seahawks, who have lost four of their last five games. They’ve lost three straight home games as well, getting outscored by 42 points in those contests.
Seattle rolled to a 3-0 start by feasting on inexperienced and ineffective quarterbacks, but it has a tough test this week with Matthew Stafford coming off his best game of the season. The Seahawks are also coming off their worst loss of the year after scoring just 10 points and getting blown out by 21 points at home last week.
Los Angeles has its star wideouts back and its young defense is starting to show some promise. We’ll bet on the Rams (-1.5) as slight road favorites.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Spread (Lions -3.5)
The Lions had more points than offensive plays last week, hanging 52 on the Titans. Their offense seems unstoppable, averaging 43 points over their last four games.
All of those games have come indoors, however. While it won’t be freezing in Green Bay on Sunday, rain is expected. Maybe the elements can’t stop Detroit, but some offensive regression should be expected.
The question for the Packers is whether Jordan Love will play after coming out of last week’s win over Jacksonville with a groin injury.
What’s not in question is how good Matt LaFleur is as an underdog, as he’s 24-11 ATS when getting points. That includes two outright wins as a ‘dog with Malik Willis as his starting quarterback.
Regardless of who plays QB for Green Bay this week, he’ll be behind an offensive line that ranks second in pass blocking according to Pro Football Focus. He also won’t have to worry about Aidan Hutchinson, who’s out for the season.
It’s hard to bet against a team as impressive as the Lions, but we’re getting points with a home team and a coach who’s excellent in spots like this one.
Give us the Packers (+3.5) and the points.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings Spread (Vikings -5.5)
The Colts are turning to Joe Flacco at quarterback again after Anthony Richardson took himself out of last week’s game against the Texans for a play because he was “tired.”
The Vikings shouldn’t be tired after playing last Thursday, but they do need to straighten out a defense that’s allowed at least 30 points in consecutive losses. They also need to contend with an opponent that has a legitimate passing game now that Flacco has replaced Richardson.
Flacco posted a passer rating of 101.5 and threw for five touchdowns in the two games he started earlier this season, both of which were played without Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. Taylor returned last week and averaged over five yards per carry, making Indy’s offense even more potent.
Metrics don’t love the Colts’ defense, but there’s nothing glaringly bad about them either. Despite having Justin Jefferson, Minnesota has played unevenly on offense, ranking near the bottom of the list in plays per game.
The Vikings do get tight end T.J. Hockenson back this week, which should help. But Flacco is poised to improve Indianapolis’ passing attack, we’ll take the Colts (+5.5) in primetime.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Spread (Chiefs -8.5)
Despite playing without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin last week, Baker Mayfield still attempted over 50 passes, reinforcing how unreliable the Buccaneers’ running game is. The Chiefs can make them even more one-dimensional with a defense that’s third in rush EPA.
Kansas City does have a weakness Tampa Bay can expose, as no team has allowed more yards per game to tight ends. Cade Otton scored two touchdowns last week and has been targeted 10 times in each of the Bucs’ last two games.
The Chiefs finally got their tight end going last week against the Raiders. Travis Kelce had 90 receiving yards and a touchdown, but Kansas City failed to cover again as a big favorite despite remaining undefeated on the moneyline.
Patrick Mahomes did play his best game of the season in Las Vegas, but he continued his streak of throwing an interception in every game this season. After failing to cover last week, he’s just 38-45-2 against the spread when his team is laying more than a field goal.
We’ll take the points and wager on Tampa Bay (+8.5) as a road underdog.
