Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns
- When: Sunday, Oct. 15 (Week 6)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
- Where: Cleveland Browns Stadium (Cleveland, OH)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: 49ers -500, Browns +375
- Spread: 49ers -9.5 (-110), Browns +9.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 36 (-110/-110)
Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The 2023 NFL schedule is at the one-third mark as Week 6 arrives. While this week has its fair share of evenly-matched contests, there are also some projected blowouts on the horizon, including Sunday’s clash between the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns.
The 49ers are feeling good about themselves after sending a message to the rest of the league with last week’s 42-10 rout of the Dallas Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Browns aim to improve their record to 3-2 as they come off their bye week.
Along with the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco is one of two remaining undefeated teams entering Week 6. On the other hand, nothing is guaranteed in sports and Cleveland looks to prove that with an upset win at home.
As far as BetMGM’s futures markets go, the 49ers are the sportsbook’s Super Bowl LVIII favorites at +400 odds. The Browns, on the other hand, sit much further down the list at +3500 odds (12th-best).
Moneyline
San Francisco heads into this matchup as heavy -500 road favorites on the moneyline. While there’s no reason to doubt Kyle Shanahan’s team against Cleveland, there isn’t a ton of value that comes with an outright 49ers victory.
Nevertheless, San Francisco’s odds carry an implied win probability of 83.3%. Unless a bettor is extremely confident that the Browns will pull off an upset, it’s best to stick with the spread for this showdown.
The 49ers are one of the best teams on both sides of the ball this season. They rank second in points per game and first when it comes to scoring defense.
Cleveland’s defense is also elite, allowing only 15.0 PPG (tied for second-best), but its offense has struggled and rates as the 10th-worst scoring offense in the NFL.
San Francisco is also relatively healthy, led by world-class playmakers like MVP candidate Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and more.
The Browns, meanwhile, are still without star running back Nick Chubb (knee) for the season, and there’s a good chance that quarterback Deshaun Watson (shoulder) won’t be healthy enough to suit up this weekend.
Considering how Cleveland scored only three points without Watson in Week 4, the majority of signs point to an outright 49ers victory this weekend.
Spread
The point spread currently sits at 9.5 points in favor of San Francisco. While that’s massive compared to some of this week’s other matchups, beating a team by two possessions is just another day at the office for the Niners.
Not only is San Francisco an impressive 4-1 ATS to begin the 2023 campaign, but its plus-19.8 average scoring margin also ranks first in the NFL. In fact, each of its five wins thus far came by seven or more points.
The Browns are tied for the 10th-best scoring margin at plus-4.0, but that number has dropped to minus-1.7 in the last three games. It doesn’t help that they lost by 25 points in their last game before the bye week.
If Watson is forced to miss this matchup, it’s going to be even tougher for Cleveland to keep things close.
The Browns’ backup QB options aren’t great. Dorian Thompson-Robinson recorded three interceptions without a touchdown in Week 4, while P.J. Walker has more INTs (11) than TDs (5) along with a 63.9 passer rating in seven career starts.
Additionally, Cleveland has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six matchups with an NFC West team. Taking that into account, it’s easy to see the 49ers winning decisively on Sunday and covering the spread.
Over/Under
The Over/Under for this game is set at 36 points. That’s the lowest projected total of the week, but don’t count on these teams surpassing it.
For starters, Sunday’s weather forecast in Cleveland doesn’t look promising. AccuWeather is projecting a good chance of precipitation. Assuming the forecast doesn’t change, those weather conditions will affect passing and special teams units, making it harder to throw the ball and score.
Both sides boasting elite defenses will also make it difficult to rack up points. Both squads sit in the top three when it comes to scoring defense and the rainy conditions will only make it tougher for both offenses to create big plays.
The Browns’ injury issues also help solidify the Under as the better option. They scored only three points in Watson’s absence in Week 4 and have averaged just 85.5 rushing yards in two games without Chubb compared to the 202.0 in the pair of games he did participate in.
Additionally, these teams have failed to reach the projected total in each of their last five meetings, finishing with fewer than 36 points in each contest.
With both teams’ run-first mentality thrown into the mix, brace for a low-scoring affair at Cleveland Browns Stadium.
Player Prop
One player prop that stands out for this game is George Kittle scoring an anytime touchdown at +200 odds.
The veteran tight end was San Francisco’s best player last week, hauling in three catches for 67 receiving yards and a trio of touchdowns. Although he had a slow start to the season, he’s now up to 10 TDs in his last 12 games dating back to last December.
Cleveland’s done well at defending tight ends for the most part this season but did surrender two TDs to Ravens TE Mark Andrews in its latest outing.
With the potential rain preventing deeper passing plays, 49ers QB Brock Purdy will be forced to make shorter passes, working in Kittle’s favor. As long as San Francisco continues to find its way into the red zone, the ex-Iowa Hawkeye is a legitimate scoring threat.
Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
