Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 12 (Week 10)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: 49ers -166, Jaguars +140
- Spread: 49ers -3 (-115), Jaguars +3 (-105)
- Total: Over/Under 44.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The San Francisco 49ers will travel to the East Coast to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in a matchup between the projected No. 3 seeds in each conference.
The 49ers (+600 Super Bowl odds) head into Week 10 of the 2023 NFL schedule fresh off a much-needed bye week. The Jags (+1600 futures odds) also had last week off and are riding a five-game win streak.
Moneyline
These are two of the top teams in the NFL and finding the margins between them is tough, but the 49ers’ moneyline is the more playable option.
The Niners looked like an unstoppable juggernaut early in the season. However, losses to the Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals rendered them mortal, causing them to slip in the betting odds.
Injuries are the primary reason for their decline. Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel missed time, while Christian McCaffrey (+1400 MVP odds) went from averaging 135.6 total yards per game to just 88.7, partly because of a nagging oblique injury.
Brock Purdy (+2500 MVP odds) also took a step back during the three-game skid, posting a line of 254 yards per game, three touchdowns and five interceptions. He also played poorly during the fourth quarter of every game and raised concern that he couldn’t be the guy to deliver if his All-Pro teammates weren’t at their best.
Losing streak aside, the Niners are still fourth in scoring offense and defense and have the second-best average scoring differential in the league. Kyle Shanahan has also led wins in three of his last four games after bye weeks as the Niners’ head coach. Plus, Purdy is still second in QBR.
On the other side, the Jaguars have won 14 of their last 16 games against teams not named the Kansas City Chiefs. Their recent five-game win streak has seen them outscore teams by an average of 11 points per game, including projected playoff teams such as the Buffalo Bills, New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Trevor Lawrence’s numbers are rather pedestrian (nine touchdowns, four interceptions, 60.6 QBR), but he’s taken care of the ball and continually put his team in a position to win games. He’s also helped lead long drives, which is why the Jags are ranked eighth in average time of possession (excluding overtime).
Where Lawrence and the Jaguars can improve is in situational football. Despite ranking 10th in points scored per game (24.1), they’re 25th in third-down conversion percentage and 26th in red zone touchdown scoring percentage.
The Jacksonville defense has shown great improvement from a year ago and is ninth in points allowed per game (19.5), though it allows 8.3 more points per game at home than it does on the road.
While the offense has struggled in key situations, the defense has not. The Jags allow the third-lowest third-down conversion percentage and are 10th in opponent red zone touchdown percentage. They also lead the league with 2.3 takeaways per game and give their offense all the support it could want.
The Jags’ approach to winning games is, optimistically, a burden on the defense, and pessimistically, unsustainable. The ability to force turnovers and shrink the field is great, but depending on it is not.
Lawrence must also play better for this team to resemble an AFC contender. He’s shown no improvement compared to last year despite having upgraded weapons.
Purdy’s struggles when playing from behind are alarming, but the Niners should be healthy and energetic. At their best, they are the most complete team in football.
Point Spread
The Jaguars have been known to cause problems for top teams, but we believe the 49ers’ spread is still the most viable line in this market.
The Jags are a joint NFL-best 6-2 against the spread, while the Niners are 4-4 ATS. However, the latter often deals with inflated spreads because of their dominance over the rest of the league. This is the perfect time to get them while expectations are low.
The blueprint is clear. Get out to an early lead, run the football, and don’t make Purdy throw from behind.
There’s no update on Trent Williams’ status at the time of writing, but McCaffrey should be healthy, and Deebo Samuel expects to play. These weapons should be enough to get the 49ers’ offense humming again and to help them control the game.
The Jags’ best hope will be to try to impose themselves on a San Francisco defense that was uncharacteristically punked at the point of attack in their losses. However, with the time off and the addition of Chase Young, we don’t foresee that happening.
Over/Under
The Under has been reliable throughout the NFL season, but we like the Over in this spot.
Despite these two teams being a combined 9-7 in favor of the Under, this is a spot for offense to run the show. The return of the Niners’ weapons at full strength should be too much for any defense in the league to handle, while Doug Pederson is sure to have a few tricks up his sleeve.
Both teams will be fired up and ready to play: the Jags because of their hot streak and the Niners because they need to steady their ship. Even though these are high-turnover defenses, we expect to see a high level of offensive execution.
Player Prop
Deebo Samuel as an anytime touchdown scorer (+160) is an interesting player prop on the board.
Samuel has not played since the middle of October because of a shoulder injury, and his return will be a major boost for a team that has fallen on hard times. Purdy will also have some pressure taken off of him by having another elite weapon to utilize. He should look for him early and often.
The Jags are a strong opponent, and Kyle Shanahan must open up the playbook to guarantee a win. Luckily, Samuel can be used in the backfield or as the receiver on screen passes and trick plays, and he has a variety of paths to the end zone.
Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images
