Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
- When: Sunday, Sept. 17 (Week 2)
- Time: 1:05 p.m. PT / 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: 49ers -350, Rams +260
- Spread: 49ers -7.5 (-105), Rams +7.5 (-115)
- Total: Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Subject to change.
NFC West and in-state rivals the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams do battle in Week 2 with several betting angles to exploit. The Rams beat the Seattle Seahawks last week by 17 points despite closing as underdogs. Meanwhile, the 49ers crushed the Pittsburgh Steelers as slim favorites by 23 points.
Even though we’re just one week into the 2023 NFL schedule, we can glean some insight using Week 1 results.
After a dominant Week 1 victory, San Francisco makes a tempting futures bet to compensate for last season’s crushing loss in the NFC Championship Game.
The odds for the outright winner of the upcoming Super Bowl list the 49ers as one of the favorites at +700. Only the Kansas City Chiefs have better odds at +650. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is among the teams with the worst odds to go all the way at +10000.
There is much to cover in this division battle, so let’s jump in with our best bets on the moneyline, spread and total.
Moneyline
With the 49ers so heavily favored on the moneyline at -350, they’re simultaneously the best bet and a low-profit pick. They are our pick because, as the sportsbooks suggest, San Francisco will throttle LA and hand them their first loss. But, with the odds favoring the 49ers so heavily, you’d need to wager $350 to win $100.
Admittedly, the Rams looked great in their opener against the Seahawks. They won by more than two touchdowns and easily covered as +4.5 point road underdogs. Beating the spread by 21.5 points is a big deal, but expectations should be tempered for a follow-up win.
San Francisco is a different beast than Seattle, as evidenced by its 8-1 record against Los Angeles dating back to 2019
The Niners destroyed the Steelers 30-7 on the road and are not the kind of team to ease up on the gas when they are hot. With their win in Week 1, they are now 7-0 with Brock Purdy under center during the regular season.
We aren’t going to overreact to the Rams’ victory over the Seahawks, who had one of the worst defenses in the NFL over the last few years. San Francisco’s defense is among the best and should close the door on LA’s hopes of going 2-0.
Point Spread
Because the 49ers are so heavily favored on the moneyline, this game’s value is on them to cover the point spread.
San Francisco dominated LA on the spread line with seven straight ATS wins against their division rivals. Interestingly, six of those seven ATS wins came as underdogs, including their most recent meeting at the end of October last year.
Several trends show why the Niners ATS is our best bet for this game. With the season only one week old, it’s wise to include results from 2022.
The 49ers were a perfect 7-0 ATS in division games last season and 12-3 against NFC opponents. As betting favorites, they are 13-6, including their Week 1 victory.
The stats don’t lie, and San Francisco was among the most profitable teams against the spread last season, especially when playing conference games.
Meanwhile, the Rams went 3-3 ATS (50%) against the NFC West and 4-7-1 (36.4%) in conference games.
It’s hard to pass off LA’s Week 1 win as an outlier, but it will likely regress this week and fall to 1-1 against the spread.
Over/Under Total
The total for this game is 44.5 points, but the Over is the better bet for this NFC West battle.
Despite the 49ers’ offense dropping 30 points on Pittsburgh in Week 1, the game fell short of the Over/Under because the Steelers scored just three points. It was a similar story in the Rams opener, with the Seahawks’ offense falling flat and failing to cover the total of 44 points, albeit by just one point.
Looking back at the 2022 results, the total was 1-1 in two games between these teams. Note that San Francisco totaled 55 points in those two wins, but Los Angeles scored just nine points in the game that fell Under the total.
While many bettors were unsure of what to expect from the 49ers with Purdy as the Week 1 starter, their offense proved to be just as explosive as during their playoff run last season. It’s early on in the season, but San Francisco might have the best offense in the NFL.
As long as the Rams’ offense doesn’t collapse in Week 2, the Over is a strong bet worth adding to your betting card this weekend.
Player Prop
The best player prop for Sunday’s divisional showdown is for dual-threat RB Christian McCaffrey to score a touchdown at -190.
The NFL has a lot of talent, but CMC might be the best running back in the league. He went off on the Steelers in Week 1 with 152 yards on 22 carries and one touchdown, and we don’t expect Los Angeles to find an answer for him.
McCaffrey is also a threat to score via TD reception and caught three balls for 17 yards in Week 1. After coming over from the Carolina Panthers in the middle of last season, CMC caught four touchdown passes to complement his six rushing touchdowns.
The Rams didn’t allow a rushing TD last weekend, but their ground defense struggled, with Seattle averaging 4.7 yards per carry, making McCaffrey a good bet to punch one in.
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
