Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 12 (Week 10)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Packers +148, Steelers -176
- Spread: Packers +3 (-104), Steelers -3 (-118)
- Total: Over/Under 38.5 (-114/-106)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Green Bay Packers (3-5) are looking to keep their playoff hopes alive as they prepare to travel to the Steel City to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) in Week 10 of the 2023 NFL schedule.
The Packers (+14000 Super Bowl odds) halted a four-game skid with a win over the Los Angeles Rams last week. The Steelers (+8500 futures odds) are coming off a four-point win over the Tennessee Titans on Thursday Night Football and would be the AFC’s fifth seed if the playoffs started today.
Moneyline
Both teams are flawed, but the Steelers’ moneyline is the most alluring option.
Mike Tomlin has a system that works for this iteration of his team: keep the score low, count on the defense to make plays, don’t commit unnecessary penalties and win between the margins.
The Steelers don’t look like a traditional playoff contender. Only three other teams average fewer points per game (16.6), and they’re 24th in average scoring differential (-3.8).
Quarterback Kenny Pickett (186.3 yards per game, six touchdowns, four interceptions) is ranked 27th in QBR and has a bad habit of starting games slowly. Only two healthy Week 1 starters have fewer 20-plus-yard completions than he does (six), and he completes just 31.6% of such passing attempts.
Pittsburgh’s running game has also been uninspiring and ranks 25th in yards per game (though it racked up 166 yards against the Titans). On top of that, the offense is 21st in third-down conversion percentage.
So, how are the Steelers the projected top Wild Card team? They are second in takeaways per game, seventh in sacks per game, and allow an average of just 3.9 points in the fourth quarter (tied-third).
The Packers have also struggled for consistency at the quarterback position. Jordan Love began his tenure as the full-time starter with six touchdowns in two games but has six TDs and eight INTs in six games since then. He’s also completed just 59.6% of his passes, the lowest amongst all uninjured regular starters.
Aaron Jones has been in and out of the lineup because of injuries and has only 196 rushing yards and two touchdowns in five games. AJ Dillon leads the backfield with 306 yards but has a lowly 3.3 yards per carry.
The Green Bay defense is 10th in average points allowed (19.9) and held its last four opponents to an average of 15.8 points. However, it’s only played one team (the Detroit Lions) with an offense ranked better than 13th in points per game, and it gave up 34 points in that game.
The Packers’ D is solid against the pass but 23rd in average rushing yards allowed (124) and league-average on third down.
Point Spread
It’s hard to love one of the league’s worst offenses laying points, but we still believe the Steelers’ spread is more viable than the Packers’.
The Steelers are 5-3 against the spread, while the Packers are 4-4. Underdogs in low-total games usually find more success than favorites, but we believe this could be an exception.
Love is far from the most consistent quarterback, but he’s willing to put air under the ball and take risks. Unfortunately for him and the Packers, that works to the benefit of the Steelers and their opportunistic defense that has been game-planning for 10 days.
Any extra time spent in the pocket allows the edge-rushers a chance to cause a strip-sack. Deep throws down the field increase the likelihood of a Pittsburgh interception.
Pickett can’t be afraid to go after the Packers’ defense. He hasn’t thrown an interception in his last four games but also has only three total touchdowns during that same stretch, and the Steelers’ running game isn’t strong enough to bank on.
Over/Under
Through nine weeks of football, the Under has a 61.5% hit rate. The Packers and Steelers are also a combined 12-4 in favor of the Under.
Offense around the league is down, especially in the red zone, and penalties are up, two explanations for what has become a strong trend.
However, we believe that the Over is an attractive pick for this game.
The Steelers’ ability to wreak havoc on the defensive side of the game should set them up in short field if not directly give them points, forcing the Packers to be more aggressive with play calls.
Pittsburgh’s defense, despite being impactful, is just 13th in average points allowed (20.4). Love has the third-highest average depth of target of QBs that have started at least half of the season and will take shots down the field, which should help the Packers move the ball.
So, even though this should be a defensive game, there’s a clear path for the Over to hit.
Player Prop
One player prop to consider is Diontae Johnson as an anytime touchdown scorer (+220).
Although he’s only scored once since the 2021 playoffs (no, we’re not kidding), he’s been in demand since returning from an injury a few weeks ago. His 29 targets, 20 receptions and 254 yards over the last three games lead the team. He also caught a touchdown last week.
Pickett has not looked super comfortable in the pocket in his pro career, but he’s formed a rapport with Johnson over the last few weeks. At better than 2-1 odds, it’s worth considering.
Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images
