Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Prediction, Odds, Spread, Picks & Best Bets NFL Week 11

This is the NFL’s oldest rivalry, but these two teams are going in opposite directions.

The Bears once again find themselves embroiled in controversy, as some players are reportedly clamoring for Williams to be benched before their season slips away.

The Packers are in better shape but still have their own issues. Quarterback Jordan Love is tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (10) and has struggled with injuries.

Despite Love’s inconsistency, Green Bay’s offense has been great, ranking third in yards per game (390.6) and ninth in scoring (25.6 points per game). The Packers are balanced, ranking seventh in passing yards per game and third in rushing yards per game.

Green Bay’s defense has been stout as well, ranking top-12 in both points and yards allowed per game. It will look to exploit a good matchup against Williams and new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, who is tasked with fixing Chicago’s broken offense.

The Bears have a good defense as well, ranking seventh in the NFL in points against per game (18.6). However, their offense has scored just 27 points over the last three games combined while allowing 18 sacks.

The Packers have dominated this rivalry lately, even without Aaron Rodgers. They’re 10-0 in their last 10 games against Chicago.

Take Green Bay on the moneyline, ideally as a parlay leg.

Chicago’s defense makes the spread tricky. Despite their offensive struggles, the Bears are 6-3 this season against a +5.5 spread.

That said, Green Bay has covered a touchdown in five straight games at Soldier Field, including its 38-20 rout in last year’s season opener. The Packers will also be well-rested coming off their bye, giving their defense even more time to prepare for Chicago’s sputtering offense.

Green Bay has won three games by at least six points this year, including one on the road. It’s also 10-0 against the spread in its last 10 games against the Bears, with all of those wins coming by at least seven points.

We’ll take the Packers to win by at least a touchdown and cover -5.5.

The total is very low, especially in a game featuring the Packers’ potent offense. Green Bay is averaging 25.6 points per game and has scored at least 29 points five times, including four times in Love’s seven starts.

As mentioned above, however, both defenses are terrific. The Under is 6-3 in Bears games this season and is 3-1-1 in the Packers’ last five games.

Even a new offensive coordinator may not give Chicago much of a boost, especially if the Bears go run-heavy with D’Andre Swift in an attempt to limit Williams’ impact on the game.

Thus, we are backing the Under.

Josh Jacobs Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Jacobs has run wild in his first season with the Packers, topping 73 rushing yards six times this season and surpassing 80 rushing yards four times.

Jacobs has an enticing matchup against the Bears’ defense, which has hemorrhaged rushing yards all season. Chicago is 24th in the NFL in run defense with 133 rushing yards allowed per game, including 175 yards per game over its losing streak.

With Green Bay likely to pull ahead and run the ball to drain the clock, Jacobs should get enough volume to hit the Over on this prop bet.

D’Andre Swift Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-127)

As mentioned above, look for Swift to be heavily involved this week to take some pressure off Williams and keep the ball out of Love’s hands.

Swift has notched at least 16 carries in six straight games, hitting the Over on this line three times during that streak. He still tallied 16 carries in each of the last two weeks despite Chicago losing both games by double digits, so the game script shouldn’t be an issue.

If the Bears want to keep this game close, they’ll likely need to funnel the offense through Swift and let him go to work on the ground.

• Moneyline: Packers (-230). Green Bay has owned Chicago recently, and there’s nothing to suggest that will change this week.
• Spread: Packers -5.5 (-108). It’s been years since the Bears covered against the Packers, so keep backing Green Bay until further notice.
• Over/Under: Under 40.5 (-112). Both defenses are good, and neither offense is particularly trustworthy given their turnover issues.
• Josh Jacobs Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-114). Look for Jacobs to continue his resurgence against one of the league’s worst run defenses.
• D’Andre Swift Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-127). With Khalil Herbert gone, Swift has Chicago’s backfield all to himself and should be busy this week.

Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images.