NFL GOAT: Is Patrick Mahomes Better Than Tom Brady?

The conversation could change if Mahomes continues on his current trajectory.

He’s only 28, but he’s already had a Hall of Fame career with six straight AFC Championship Game appearances, four Super Bowl appearances, three championships and three Super Bowl MVPs.

His three Super Bowl rings are the most of any active quarterback.

Mahomes is also the first QB since Brady to win back-to-back championships and the second player ever with back-to-back Super Bowl MVPs — something Brady never accomplished.

With Mahomes laying the foundation for a career that could ultimately rival Brady’s, many NFL fans can’t help but wonder: which one is better?

Before we dive into their NFL careers, let’s quickly compare their college careers.

Brady was not a highly regarded prospect coming out of college. He played at Michigan from 1996 to 1999, where he went 20-5 and led the program to victories in the 1999 Citrus Bowl and 2000 Orange Bowl, showing off his clutch gene by winning the latter in overtime against Alabama.

However, Brady was platooned for the first half of his senior year and wasn’t expected to have much of an NFL career. He wasn’t taken by the Patriots until the sixth round of the 2000 NFL Draft, going 199th overall.

Mahomes, on the other hand, generated much more national attention during his collegiate career at Texas Tech. The son of a former MLB pitcher, Mahomes was also a pitcher on TTU’s baseball team as a freshman and sophomore before focusing exclusively on football as a junior.

The decision paid off, as Mahomes had a monster season. He led the nation in passing yards (5,052) and total touchdowns (53), earning the Sammy Baugh Trophy as the country’s top college passer. Having proven that he was NFL-ready, Mahomes opted out of his final year of college.

With his pedigree and collegiate success, Mahomes was considered a top prospect heading into the 2017 NFL Draft. Not surprisingly, he was a first-round pick, going 10th overall to the Chiefs.

Mahomes has lived up to the hype and then some, whereas Brady proved everyone wrong for overlooking him in college. Mahomes always seemed destined for greatness, but Brady had to work at it and needed more time to establish himself as an elite player.

As great as Mahomes has been, he still has a long way to go to catch Brady. Despite winning three Super Bowls, he’d still need to win four more to catch Brady.

Brady played 23 seasons in the NFL, lasting until he was 45. Mahomes just finished his seventh season and hasn’t turned 30.

Mahomes still has a lot of football ahead of him, so we won’t know which one is better until his career is over. If he stays healthy and keeps playing at an MVP level, he’ll have a shot.

For now, we can compare them through the same age. Mahomes just completed his age-28 season, which was the 2005 campaign for Brady. Here’s how they stack up in a few key categories:

Mahomes had an additional year as a starter and the benefit of three 17-game seasons so far. But even if we include Brady’s 2006 numbers to compensate, the numbers still aren’t close.

It’s also worth mentioning that the NFL is significantly more pass-heavy now than at the start of Brady’s career. Still, the awards disparity shows how Mahomes has been more impressive relative to his peers.

Mahomes is on track to have a better career than Brady.

Longevity Factor

However, can Mahomes maintain that level of play for at least another decade?

Brady improved with age and was still playing at an MVP level into his 40s. He also stayed healthy, appearing in over 300 regular-season games. Mahomes hasn’t cracked 100.

Brady only suffered one serious injury in his career, tearing his ACL and MCL in the 2008 season opener, spoiling New England’s dreams for a second straight undefeated regular season. He also missed four games in 2016 due to his controversial “Deflategate” suspension. 

Outside of those two seasons, Brady started every regular-season game from 2002 to 2022, never taking a week off due to rest, injury or sickness despite playing well into his 40s.

Mahomes has also been durable, but he hasn’t been as superhuman as Brady. Mahomes has missed four regular-season games since becoming a full-time starter in 2018, two due to injury and two to rest during the final week of the season.

In 2019, he suffered a sprained ankle and missed two games with a dislocated kneecap. In 2020, he received a concussion during the Divisional Round against the Cleveland Browns and had to leave the game early, but Kansas City still won with backup quarterback Chad Henne.

Mahomes battled an ankle sprain during the 2022 playoffs, exiting briefly in the Divisional Round and re-aggravating it during the Super Bowl. However, it didn’t stop him from leading the Chiefs to a comeback win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 57.

Mahomes has been fortunate to avoid a major injury, but his ability to scramble and extend plays opens him up to more hits and potential harm.

Brady’s supporters will note that Mahomes never beat him. Brady went 2-0 in their head-to-head matchups despite being 18 years older, outdueling Mahomes in the 2018 AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl XL two years later.

AFC East vs. AFC West

In Mahomes’ defense, Brady benefitted from playing in historically weak divisions his entire career. 

Brady spent most of his career in the AFC East, where the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and Buffalo Bills were consistently mediocre. During Brady’s 19 seasons as a starter with the Patriots, New England had a winning record every year and won its division 17 times, including 11 straight seasons from 2009 to 2019.

The two times the Patriots didn’t finish first, they finished second, with Brady missing one of those years with a season-ending knee injury. They won 10-plus games 18 times in a 19-year span with Brady.

By comparison, the other three AFC East teams had 11 playoff appearances and 10 seasons with 10-plus wins combined during that stretch. The Jets were the only other team in their division to win a postseason game during that run.

When Brady was with the Patriots, you could pencil them in for a division title and a playoff berth almost every year.

After leaving New England, Brady went to the NFC South for three seasons, which was arguably just as easy. The New Orleans Saints lost Drew Brees to retirement the year after Brady arrived, and they were the only other NFC South team to have a winning season during his three years in the division.

During Brady’s final campaign in 2022, he led the Buccaneers to a division title with an 8-9 record, which is evidence of just how bad the NFC South was that year. In any other division, Brady would not have made the playoffs.

Mahomes, on the other hand, has faced stiffer competition in the AFC West. The Chargers have had one of the most talented teams in football over the past half-decade — even if their final record didn’t indicate it. They’ve also had stellar quarterbacks in Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert.

The Raiders were solid before trading four-time Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Carr to the Saints after 2022. The Denver Broncos had nine-time Pro Bowler Russell Wilson under center the last two years and are now coached by the legendary Sean Payton.

Mahomes has had to consistently go up against quality quarterbacks inside his division, which is more than Brady could say. The Chiefs have won eight straight division titles and are the cream of the crop in the AFC West, but Herbert and Payton could be on the cusp of ending that streak.

Head Coach Impact?

Brady also spent 20 seasons with the greatest coach of all time, Bill Belichick. Mahomes likely won’t have that luxury with Andy Reid, who’s nearly 66 and could retire in the near future.

Mahomes has never won a Super Bowl without Reid, whereas Brady won one in his first year without Belichick.

Eventually, Mahomes needs to prove he can win a title with a new offensive core now that Tyreek Hill is in Miami and Travis Kelce is nearing retirement.

No one knows what the future holds for Mahomes, but it’s hard to have a better start to your career.

He’s more physically gifted than Brady was in terms of speed and arm strength – natural advantages that make him far more difficult for opposing defenses to stop.

So, with all that being said, who’s better?

Brady for now, but perhaps not for long.

Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images