Patriots vs. Jets TNF Week 3: Promos, Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

The Jets finally broke through after six largely uneventful quarters to start the season, erupting for 17 second-half points in Nashville last week to claim their first win of the year.

New York has leaned heavily on Hall, who already has 207 all-purpose yards and a pair of scores this season. He’s taken some pressure off the 40-year-old Rodgers, who has developed chemistry with No. 1 wideout Garrett Wilson (10 catches, 117 yards) and longtime teammate Allen Lazard (eight catches, 100 yards) in the passing game.

Still, the Patriots have shown that they’ll put up a fight. Their defense has been one of the best in the league, ranking fifth in points allowed and 11th in yards allowed. However, New England’s offense continues to be an issue, ranking 20th in both scoring and total yardage.

The Jets are far more talented on both sides of the ball, and you can bet they’ll be raring to go in their home opener against the Pats. New York snapped its 15-game losing streak against New England in January but hasn’t beaten the Patriots in the Meadowlands since 2015.

We’re backing the Jets to win outright, even though the moneyline odds aren’t particularly lucrative.

What New England lacks in talent, it far exceeds in scrappiness and work ethic under rookie head coach Jerod Mayo. Bill Belichick’s successor is 2-0 against the spread this season, including an outright win in Cincinnati in Week 1.

The Pats boast an exceptional running attack with Rhamondre Stevenson ranking fourth in the NFL in rushing. Their defense has been outstanding against the run as well, with the second-fewest rushing yards allowed (58 per game).

If New England can slow Hall and avoid a pass-heavy game script (which would favor Rodgers over Jacoby Brissett), it should be able to stay within a touchdown. This number will be especially enticing if it balloons to seven, but we’re still backing the Patriots to cover.

Both defenses are terrific, and these teams tend to play low-scoring games against each other, hitting the Under in five of their last six matchups.

None of those games involved Rodgers, however, and this total is a very low bar to clear.

New England’s offense is better than advertised. Stevenson ranks fifth in rushing yards (201) and Brissett has been a solid game manager with zero turnovers.

The Patriots should be able to run the ball effectively against the Jets, who’ve given up the ninth-most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Meanwhile, Rodgers shouldn’t have much trouble against a New England secondary that ranks 27th in passing yards allowed.

Both offenses can play to their strengths, which should help the Over hit with relative ease.

Aaron Rodgers Over 214.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Rodgers has yet to go off with New York, completing just 60.8% of his passes and staying well below 200 passing yards in both games.

But the Patriots just gave up 327 passing yards on a 75% completion rate to Geno Smith, and Rodgers should feel more comfortable on his home turf after back-to-back away games. Mayo will likely load the box to stop Hall, which should give Lazard, Wilson, Hall and the rest of the Jets’ weapons more room to get open.

If the Over is going to hit, Rodgers will need to make plays through the air, especially if New England’s stout run defense limits Hall on the ground. Accordingly, this prop bet is worth targeting.

• Check out our full Week 3 TNF prop bets here.

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Stevenson has cleared this prop easily in both games so far, racking up 120 rushing yards in Week 1 and 81 yards last week. He’s bounced back in a big way from a disappointing 2023 season, looking more like the 1,000-yard rusher from 2022.

New York presents a great matchup for him to keep rolling. The Jets have allowed 130-plus rushing yards in both games and struggled against the run last year as well, ranking 25th in rushing yards allowed.

Stevenson is the clear top dog in New England’s backfield, topping 20 carries in both games. His 46 rushing attempts are more than twice as many as Antonio Gibson (18), so look for Mayo to lean heavily on Stevenson here.

Stevenson also had a touchdown in each of his first two games, making him a great value play to score an anytime touchdown at +140 odds. As long as the Patriots’ defense keeps the score relatively close, Stevenson should have 70-plus rushing yards for the third straight week.

• Moneyline: Jets (-270). The Patriots are a live dog, proven by their plus-3 point differential through two games. However, the Jets are more talented and should be able to win their home opener for the second straight year.
• Spread: Patriots +6 (-108). New England is 2-0 against the spread despite being underdogs in both games, including its outright road win in Cincinnati in Week 1. The Pats are limited offensively, but they’re playing hard for Mayo and should hang tough in a short week.
• Total: Over 38.5 (-112). Both defenses are exploitable and Rodgers is starting to look more like himself. This is also a low bar to clear, as a 21-17 final score will cash the Over.
• Prop 1: Aaron Rodgers Over 214.5 Yards (-115). After a slow start on the road, look for Rodgers to break out at home. He seemed to shake off the rust during the second half on Sunday and should light up the Patriots, who are giving up the sixth-most passing yards per game (233.0).
• Prop 2: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115). Stevenson is New England’s best offensive player and is facing one of the worst rushing defenses in football. After exceeding 80 rushing yards in each of the last two weeks, Stevenson should surpass this prop again with ease.

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