Super Bowl Betting: Point Spread History

If the San Francisco 49ers are three-point favorites, they must win by at least four to cover. If they win by fewer than three or lose, their spread bet loses. If they win by exactly three, this bet is graded as a “push” and the sportsbook refunds those bets.

If the Kansas City Chiefs are three-point underdogs, they must either win the game or lose by three or less to cover. If they lose by more than three, their spread bet loses.

The larger the spread, the more lopsided a game is expected to be.

As the league’s parity has increased, bigger spreads have become less common. A team has not been favored by more than a touchdown in the Big Game since the 2007 New England Patriots, who came off an undefeated regular season.

The spread for the championship game is usually only a few points, indicating a relatively even matchup. Super Bowl spreads rarely reach double digits, which would suggest a blowout.

The spread also usually doesn’t factor in home-field advantage, as the Super Bowl is typically at a neutral site. Two teams played a Super Bowl in their home stadium, and both won.

Smaller spreads have not necessarily resulted in close games. Seven of the last 12 Super Bowls have been decided by double digits, and the average margin of victory in the Big Game is close to two touchdowns.

With that in mind, let’s examine the recent history of Super Bowl point spreads.

Here were the spreads for the last 20 Super Bowls:

The largest point spread in Super Bowl history was in Super Bowl XXIX in 1995.

The San Francisco 49ers entered the game as massive 18.5-point favorites over the San Diego Chargers. Incredibly, the 49ers still covered, winning the game by 23 points with a 49-26 rout and becoming the first team in NFL history to win five Super Bowls.

Led by MVP quarterback Steve Young, San Francisco was the most dominant team in the NFL. It led the league in scoring and point differential during the regular season, then won all three of its playoff games by double digits.

Only two of the last 21 Super Bowls have had spreads of at least 10 points.

The smallest spread in Super Bowl history was in Super Bowl XLIX in 2015, a pick’em between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.

There was no spread for this game, which sportsbooks considered a toss-up. Bettors could wager on which team would win the game outright.

That is the only instance of a pick’em in Super Bowl history.

On two occasions, the Super Bowl had a one-point spread. That was in Super Bowl VII (1973) and Super Bowl XVI (1982).

One-point games are extremely rare in the NFL. The only Super Bowl decided by one point was Super Bowl XXV in 1991, when the New York Giants edged the Buffalo Bills 20-19 after Buffalo missed a last-minute field goal.

The largest upset in Super Bowl history came in Super Bowl III when Joe Namath led the New York Jets to a 16-7 victory over the Baltimore Colts.

The Jets were 18-point underdogs against Don Shula’s Colts, who went 13-1 during the regular season and scored nearly three times as many points as they allowed.

New York’s defense shut them out until the fourth quarter, however, and the Jets emerged with their first and only Super Bowl title.

As expected, favorites have had more success covering the spread than underdogs.

In 58 Super Bowls, the favorite is 29-26-2 against the spread, excluding the pick’em. The two pushes happened in Super Bowl XXXI (1997) and Super Bowl XXXIV (2000).

Underdogs have had more success lately, covering the spread in 16 of the last 23 Super Bowls.

Underdogs have been less successful on the moneyline, where favorites are 37-21.

In most Super Bowls, the winner has also covered the spread. There have only been seven Super Bowls where the winning side failed to cover.

Image credit: Andy Lyons /Allsport