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The anticipation starts to build with the start of the NFL preseason. While it’s not the crisp, action-packed football that we’re used to seeing during the fall and winter, it’s still NFL football.
With that comes the opportunity to bet on the NFL at some of our recommended NFL betting sites.
Like how watching preseason football is different from regular season football, betting on the preseason is a different beast than betting on the regular season. Preseason games are exhibition games that don’t count in the standings, so they are riskier for gamblers. Most teams care more about getting some reps in and avoiding injuries rather than winning these glorified scrimmages.
That said, the preseason can be an enjoyable way to get back into football after a six-month layoff. It’s also possible to have success betting on preseason games if you pick your spots.
With that in mind, here are some of our best NFL preseason bet tips.
Check To See Who Is Playing (And For How Long)
While you should do this before betting on any game, it’s even more important in the preseason, as teams rarely roll out their full starting lineups — especially in Week 1. Stars play sparingly (if at all), as teams don’t want to risk losing key players to injuries during meaningless games.
For example, Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played a preseason game since 2018.
Even when starters do suit up, they rarely play the full game. Most only play a couple of series and are out of the game by halftime, so expect to see plenty of backups and players who may not make the final roster.
Accordingly, preseason games can get wonky, especially in the second half. If a team is playing its starters, you’re better off placing first-half bets rather than full-game bets.
Starters Don’t Automatically Equal Points
Since the NFL shortened the preseason from four games to three in 2021, Week 2 of the preseason has become the de facto “dress rehearsal week” where teams play their starters for most (if not all) of the first half.
That change hasn’t resulted in high-scoring affairs, however, as Unders have hit at a 55% rate (26-21-1) in Week 2 during the span. It also hasn’t given favorites an advantage, as Week 2 underdogs have covered 55% of the time during the same period.
Just because starters are in the game doesn’t mean they’re going full speed or giving 100% effort. Offenses tend to look clunky during preseason games as teams integrate new players and test out new plays. Teams also run conservative offenses in the preseason to limit injury risk and save their best plays for the regular season.
Pay Attention To The News Cycle
Another way to get an edge is to stay on top of the news and jump on NFL preseason betting odds before they shift.
Information on players and strategy can be scarce during the preseason, which sometimes leads to sportsbooks getting intel at the same time as the general public. As such, it can be advantageous to pounce on a specific line when news comes out before sportsbooks and the public adjust. However, sportsbooks limit players who consistently beat line movements due to breaking news.
An example of news impacting a line was the 2022 Hall of Fame Game. Las Vegas Raiders starting running back Josh Jacobs inexplicably played the entire first half in a game where no other Raiders starter took the field.
While Jacobs only ran for 30 yards, Las Vegas rattled off 20 unanswered points in the first half and won by 16 points, easily covering the -2.5 spread.
Similarly, if a team has a quarterback competition, you can expect them to have a more pass-heavy attack so they can better evaluate their QBs.
The preseason is one of the few times when sportsbooks and gamblers are on the same page in terms of information, and you should do everything in your power to take advantage of that, within reason. Pick your spots, because a book might flag your account if you do it too much.
Bet Underdogs In Close Games
With star players spending much of the preseason on the sidelines, preseason games are essentially toss-ups. Accordingly, betting on underdogs can be a profitable strategy in close matchups.
Since 2015, 1-to-3-point underdogs have gone 158-110 (59%) against the spread, so it’s worth considering slight underdogs when preseason lines are released.
If you’ve signed up for multiple sportsbooks, make sure to shop around and get the best NFL preseason betting odds before placing your wager to maximize your potential profit.
Target 37 When Betting Totals
For unclear reasons, 37 points is a clear line of demarcation when it comes to betting preseason totals.
Over the past 13 years, the Over hit at a 58.7% rate (277-195) in games with a projected total below 37 points. Conversely, the Under hit at a 56.2% rate (527-410) in games with a projected total above 37 points.
Bettors tend to bet the Over regardless, as totals that closed at 37 and 37.5 saw the Over attract an average of 60 to 65% of the total handle, per Action Network. As such, fading the public and betting the Under higher totals can yield profitable results.
While it might be tempting to blindly bet the Over on relatively lower totals during the preseason (regular season totals are typically in the 40s), the Under is often the way to go.
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