Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
- When: Sunday, Oct. 1 (Week 4)
- Time: 1:05 p.m. PT / 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where: SoFi Stadium (Los Angeles, CA)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Raiders +190, Chargers -230
- Spread: Raiders +5.5 (-112), Chargers -5.5 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 49 (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
While the Los Angeles Chargers have earned a reputation for losing close games in the fourth quarter, that wasn’t the case in Week 3 as they earned a narrow 28-24 road win over the Minnesota Vikings for their first victory of the season.
They’ll try to build on that performance in Week 4 of the 2023 NFL schedule with a home divisional matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Raiders opened their season with a one-point win over the Denver Broncos but have gone winless since then, getting blown out by the Buffalo Bills in Week 2 and losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football in Week 3.
Both teams desperately need a win here to avoid falling to 1-3, but which AFC West rival will come out on top?
Moneyline
Los Angeles is a fairly heavy home favorite on the moneyline for this matchup.
With better luck, the Chargers could be 3-0. They lost by two points to the Miami Dolphins in Week and fell by a field goal to the Tennessee Titans in Week 2.
With Justin Herbert under center, LA’s offense ranks as one of the best in the NFL this year. Pro Football Focus rates it seventh in overall offense, seventh in pass routes, seventh in pass blocking and 10th in passing. Additionally, the Chargers rank third in passing yards per game, fifth in points per game and third in passing touchdowns per game.
This is a very effective offense that is borderline unstoppable when Austin Ekeler is in the backfield (he missed the last two weeks due to injury). With Ekeler potentially returning for this bout, Los Angeles should have another strong offensive showing despite losing deep threat Mike Williams to the injured reserve.
The Chargers’ defense is another story, however. Los Angeles has the second-worst defensive grade from PFF, which is why the team is 1-2 instead of 3-0 and isn’t considered a serious Super Bowl contender based on championship futures odds.
Still, expect the Chargers to take care of business at home against a floundering Las Vegas team that has yet to score 20 points in a game this season.
Point Spread
The spread has shifted to 5.5 points in favor of LA ahead of this matchup. The spread and the moneyline have both been trending in favor of the Chargers, suggesting increased confidence in them from the betting markets.
The Raiders are currently 30th in points per game, which is only behind the New York Jets and New York Giants. Quarterback play has been a major issue, as Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (five).
The defense has also been a major problem for Las Vegas, surrendering 38 points to the Bills in Week 2 and 23 points to an underwhelming Steelers offense in Week 3. Los Angeles should have no trouble putting up points against this unit, especially if Ekeler returns.
Accordingly, look for the Chargers to win by at least a touchdown and cover the spread.
Over/Under
The Over/Under for this matchup sits at 49 points after dropping several points from the opening line.
All three of LA’s games have gone over that total, while all three of Las Vegas’ games have gone under the line.
Both defenses have been terrible so far, making the Over more likely. The Chargers have one of the league’s top offenses, as mentioned, and the Raiders should be able to score a healthy number of points as well with top skill players like Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs.
Los Angeles tends to play in a lot of shootouts with its high-octane offense and porous defense, so expect the Over to hit in a high-scoring slugfest at SoFi Stadium.
Player Prop
After Williams suffered a season-ending knee injury last week, wide receiver Joshua Palmer stepped up in a big way, pulling down four catches for 66 yards and finding the end zone in the process.
With Williams sidelined for the remainder of the season, the Chargers will rely heavily on Palmer to pick up the slack. As such, look for him to absorb some of Williams’ targets and operate as the team’s No. 2 receiver behind Keenan Allen.
Palmer’s receiving yards player prop line remains around 43.5 yards for this game. If Ekeler sits again, then the Over on this prop will look even better.
Photo by Heidi Fang/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Tribune News Service
