Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 19 (Week 11)
- Time: 1 p.m. EST
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Raiders +575, Dolphins -900
- Spread: Raiders +13.5 (-110), Dolphins -13.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 46.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The 2023 NFL schedule inches closer to the postseason with the arrival of Week 11. There are several intriguing matchups to keep an eye on Sunday, including an AFC collision between the Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) and Miami Dolphins (6-3) in Florida.
The Raiders have hit their stride, improving to 2-0 in the post-Josh McDaniels era with a 16-12 win over the New York Jets On Sunday Night Football in Week 10. On the other side, the Dolphins return from their bye after most recently falling 21-14 to the Kansas City Chiefs in Germany back in Week 9.
As the playoff picture continues to take shape, one side’s NFL futures odds are far more promising than the other. Miami’s +900 odds to win the Super Bowl rank fourth-best across the league, while Las Vegas’ +20000 odds are tied for the 10th-worst.
Who will emerge victorious come Sunday afternoon? Let’s dive into things and find out.
Moneyline
Sporting an unblemished home record through 10 weeks, the Dolphins are the clear-cut moneyline favorites this weekend.
It’s hard to defeat Miami anywhere in the country, but it’s even tougher at home. The Dolphins are a perfect 4-0 at Hard Rock Stadium, where they boast the second-best average scoring margin (+25.0) in the league.
While that number is inflated by Miami’s 50-point win over the Denver Broncos in Week 3, it’s worth noting that the other three wins all came by margins of 14 or more points.
The Raiders are playing better without McDaniels at the helm, but that doesn’t change the fact that they’re still 1-4 on the road. Las Vegas hasn’t picked up an away win since Week 1, getting outscored 118-53 on aggregate in four consecutive road losses.
After allowing 29.5 PPG in those losses, it’s hard to have faith in the Raiders’ defense against the Dolphins. Miami has scored at least 31 points in each home game this year and the offense will only be more dangerous if stud running back De’Von Achane (knee) returns to the lineup.
Having also won seven of their last nine meetings with Las Vegas, the Dolphins are the better outright pick this week.
Point Spread
Unless something drastically changes, Miami is the biggest spread favorite in Week 11 and is favored to defeat the Raiders by a whopping 13.5 points.
It isn’t surprising to see the Dolphins heavily favored based on how dominant they’ve been at home. They are one of only two teams (the Dallas Cowboys are the other) to win every home game by at least 14 points.
As a result, Miami is 4-0 against the spread at home in 2023 and 6-3 ATS overall.
Las Vegas, meanwhile, is just 1-4 ATS on the road. The Raiders have had trouble keeping away games close, losing three times by at least 10 points and twice by margins of 18 or more points.
After facing the two lowly New York teams in back-to-back weeks, Las Vegas is in for a real test come Sunday. With Tua Tagovailoa and his weapons clicking, the Dolphins are more than capable of winning by at least two touchdowns — something they’ve achieved four times since Week 3.
Over/Under
The Over/Under for this Week 11 showdown is 46.5, which seems a bit low given the history between these teams.
After all, each of their last eight meetings hit the Over on their projected totals. Those clashes saw an average of 50.9 total points, never combining for fewer than 48 points. That includes when they most recently combined for 59 points back in September 2021.
Additionally, the Over is 3-1 at Hard Rock Stadium, where each game this year has finished with at least 47 total points. And while the Over has just hit twice in the Raiders’ 10 previous outings, both instances occurred when they were the road team.
Even if Las Vegas’ offense is among the NFL’s worst (17.2 PPG, 27th), Miami is capable of doing some heavy lifting. The Dolphins not only average the most points overall (31.7 PPG), but they’re also averaging 43.5 PPG at home — nearly this week’s projected total on its own.
With Sunday’s weather forecast calling for clear skies and little wind, it’s best to anticipate a shootout at Hard Rock Stadium.
Player Prop
This matchup is ripe with player props, but the one we like the most is for Tyreek Hill to finish with over 89.5 receiving yards at -115 odds.
The superstar playmaker has been the NFL’s best wideout this season, pacing the league with 119.6 receiving yards per game. He’s finished with the Over on this prop five times thus far, including in three of his last five games.
If that isn’t convincing enough, Hill has finished with at least 112 receiving yards in all four of his home appearances, averaging 153.3 receiving yards per game at Hard Rock Stadium. With how well things have worked out, there’s no reason for Tagovailoa to stop targeting his favorite weapon.
While the Raiders have thrived at stopping the pass, they haven’t been as effective lately. On top of allowing 257+ passing yards twice in the last three games, they allowed two wideouts — Amon-Ra St. Brown and Garrett Wilson — to finish with more than 89.5 receiving yards.
After a week off to recharge his batteries, Hill should be ready to run all over Las Vegas’ defense on Sunday.
Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images
