Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts
- When: Sunday, Oct. 1 (Week 4)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Rams -118, Colts -102
- Spread: Rams -1 (-110), Colts +1 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 46 (-112/-108)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
In an unexpected turn of events, the Indianapolis Colts now sit atop the AFC South with a record of 2-1 after securing a massive road win against the Baltimore Ravens in overtime last week. That happened despite being forced to turn to backup quarterback Gardner Minshew.
Now, the Colts will head back to Lucas Oil Stadium to host the Los Angeles Rams, a team that gave the San Francisco 49ers (best Super Bowl futures odds in the NFL) a scare at home in Week 1 before splitting with the Seattle Seahawks (win) and Cincinnati Bengals (loss) on the road.
The positive take away from the Rams’ two losses is that they have been within striking distance on both occasions, keeping both games within a touchdown.
Which team will walk away with a win in this non-conference matchup between two teams that are both without their biggest offensive weapons?
Moneyline
LA and Indy boast nearly the same moneyline odds (-102 and -118, respectively), which is an indication from the sportsbooks that this will be a nailbiter.
The biggest question for the Colts heading into their fourth game of the season is whether or not rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson will be available to play after missing Indianapolis’ Week 3 win due to a concussion. Richardson also took a hit to the helmet in Week 1 and should probably start sliding to avoid hard hits.
Hopefully, Richardson will have had enough rest to suit up for this game against the Rams, as his mobility and arm talent will be needed to keep their defense honest. Still, even with Richardson, the Colts do not have a top-tier, explosive offense. They have one of the weakest receiving corps in the league and are also missing their top running back Jonathan Taylor.
Further, the right side of Indy’s O-line, which features Will Fries (114th in pass blocking, according to Pro Football Focus) and Braden Smith (96th in PFF’s pass blocking), has been poor in protecting Richardson and Minshew.
With all that said, Los Angeles has received the second-lowest grade for defensive coverage from PFF through its first three games, which is not a good sign. To make matters worse, the Rams’ overall defensive grade is the fourth-worst in the NFL.
This should be a tight game, but the Colts should squeak out a narrow win by the end. Their defense, especially up front, will be the difference.
Point Spread
Indianapolis is a narrow one-point spread home underdog for its Week 4 battle with Los Angeles. As alluded to above, the Colts’ defense should be the deciding factor in this game.
The “it” factor for Indianapolis has undoubtedly been the defensive front line, which has allowed the eighth-fewest yards per rushing attempt (3.5) in the NFL so far. The linebacker unit has also been a strength with Shaq Leonard (2018 NFL leader in tackles), Zaire Franklin (2023 NFL leader in tackles through Week 3) and E.J. Speed.
The combination of size, speed and physicality of this Colts defense has resulted in them ranking seventh in takeaways per game so far in 2023. They are quick to the ball and cause chaos and disruption in the backfield. Few teams rival Indy’s ability to punch the ball out of ballcarriers’ arms.
Per PFF, the Colts have the best run defense through the first three games and the ninth-best pass rush. This could spell bad news for the Rams, who have had to lean heavily on their running game (led by Kyren Williams) and their rookie fifth-round receiver, Puka Nacua.
Nacua has been starting in place of injured No. 1 receiver Cooper Kupp (hamstring). He has had three strong weeks to start his career, but Los Angeles has limited weapons outside of him and Williams.
Williams has had a solid all-around season thus far for the Rams, but he could struggle against such a gritty defensive front. Assuming Indianapolis doesn’t have a letdown game after such an impressive road win against Baltimore, it is in good position to secure its third win of the season and cover the spread here.
Over/Under
The point total Over/Under for this matchup stands at 46. As noted above, Los Angeles has the lowest-graded defense in the NFL per PFF, giving the Colts a relatively easy matchup offensively.
Assuming that Richardson is good to go, he should have a big game against this Rams defense. He was on his way to a monster performance in Week 2 before getting sidelined, so look for him to pick up where he left off.
Further, Zack Moss has impressed as the lead back for Indianapolis during Taylor’s absence. Between Moss, Richardson and Michael Pittman Jr., the Colts could make some big plays downfield and put points on the board.
The Over looks like a slight lean in this spot, as Indy has been playing in a few higher-scoring games.
Player Prop
Kyren Williams is now RB1 for the Rams after they traded Cam Akers to the Minnesota Vikings. However, he still has not been given the kind of volume that other top running backs in the league usually get despite his production so far.
Williams has logged a total of 39 carries through Week 3 for an average of 13 carries per game. He has not had more than 15 carries in a game yet, but his rushing attempts player prop line is at 15.5.
As the season progresses, Williams will likely take on a heavier workload, both in the run and pass game. For this game against Indianapolis, though, don’t expect that to be the case.
The Colts have the ninth-highest grade in the NFL in rushing defense through Week 3 and rank seventh in opponent rushing yards per attempt. Their front line of Kwity Paye, DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart is exceptional at filling gaps with their huge frames and utilizing their strength and quickness to get offensive linemen on their heels.
Los Angeles should give up on the run game early, especially when it has some success against Indy’s secondary, which is, without a doubt, a bottom-third unit in the league.
As a result, Williams will not get as many touches on the ground. With his rushing attempts prop sitting at 15.5, this could be a strong opportunity to bet the Under.
Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images
