Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 14
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET / 5:15 p.m. PT
- Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Rams +140, Lions -166
- Spread: Rams +3 (-104), Lions -3 (-118)
- Total: Over/Under 51.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Los Angeles Rams and former Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford travel to Detroit for their Wild Card Round game on Sunday night.
The Rams punched their ticket to the playoffs as a six-seed thanks to a late-season surge, winning seven of their final eight games to close out the 2023-24 NFL schedule.
Los Angeles enters the playoffs red-hot and is one of the most dangerous teams in the NFC. However, taking down the Lions at Ford Field will require a valiant effort.
Detroit is coming off its best season in years after going 12-5 and tying for the best record in the NFC. Dan Campbell got the most out of his talented roster, but his aggressive management style has received its share of criticism.
The Lions enter the postseason with 22/1 odds to win the Super Bowl, ranking behind seven teams. The Rams are getting less respect in the futures market at 50/1.
Moneyline
The moneyline favors Detroit, but we lean toward the underdog as the Rams have more momentum.
LA’s success starts with Stafford. After a poor start, the veteran quarterback turned things around in the second half. His completion rate spiked from 59.7% in Weeks 1-8 to 65.8% in the second half of the year.
Stafford threw 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions since Week 9, and one of the biggest beneficiaries was Puka Nacua. Nacua shattered the NFL rookie records for receptions and receiving yards, ending the year with 105 catches for 1,481 yards.
The Rams’ offense is firing on all cylinders, while the Lions’ defense has plenty of flaws. Detroit is 23rd in the NFL in points allowed per game, surrendering 23.2. Campbell’s team is also 27th against the pass.
If Los Angeles can neutralize the fiery Ford Field crowd, it has the roster to pull off a Wild Card upset.
Point Spread
The Lions are three-point favorites on the spread, but we’re taking the points.
Our favorite wager of the three standard markets is the Rams at +3.
FanDuel offers an alternate spread of Los Angeles +3.5 for -120. If you’re willing to pay a little more juice, this is an appealing number.
Detroit is the best team in the NFL against the spread at 12-5. However, the Rams have also been profitable, going 10-6-1 ATS.
The Lions shouldn’t have issues scoring in this game, as they rank fifth in the NFL in points per game. However, Los Angeles also has a top-10 scoring offense, and its secondary is playing better than Detroit’s.
This game should be back and forth, presenting multiple live betting opportunities. It will come down to the wire with two evenly-matched teams, so the spread with the hook is a viable betting option for the Rams.
For the Lions to cover, they must establish the ground game and keep Los Angeles off the field.
The Rams have one of the best interior defenders in the game in Aaron Donald, who will try to prevent this from happening. A few stops in high-leverage situations will tilt the momentum to Los Angeles.
Over/Under
The Over/Under is 51.5, and we’re taking the Over on Sunday night.
The total is lofty, but we’ll bet on points with these two offensive juggernauts and shaky secondaries.
Stafford should be looking to make a statement in his return to Ford Field in a high-pressure situation, and we don’t think the Rams will run the ball effectively.
Detroit’s pass defense hasn’t been the best, but its front seven is stout. Aidan Hutchinson leads the way with 36 solo tackles on the season.
He has anchored the second-best run defense in the NFL – a unit that allows just 88 yards per game on the ground.
Kyren Williams has been nearly unstoppable for Los Angeles out of the backfield, but his success could end on Sunday. This game will be decided through the air, and this style results in a slow clock with many points.
These are also two of the best Over teams in the NFL. The Lions are 11-6 to the Over, while the Rams are 9-8.
The 9-8 record puts Los Angeles in the league’s top half, but it doesn’t tell the whole story.
The Rams hit the Over in six of their final seven games. Expect that trend to continue this week.
Player Prop
A playable prop bet is Matthew Stafford Over 272.5 Passing Yards (-114).
Stafford’s passing line is viable for multiple reasons. From a motivational perspective, backing Stafford against the team he spent most of his career with is brilliant.
Stafford faced the Lions in 2021 and shredded them throughout the game. He was 28 for 41 passing for 334 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Stafford’s completion percentage on turf is 7.2% higher than on grass, and the indoor stadium will only help LA’s passing game.
The area to exploit Detroit’s defense is through the air. The Lions have been run-game wreckers in 2023. If they remove that aspect of the Rams’ offense, Sean McVay must lean on the pass.
Stafford has exceeded this line in four of his past five games. His one miss in this stretch was a 258-yard performance against the Washington Commanders, where he still completed nearly 76% of his passes.
Take the Over on Stafford’s line in a likely shootout.
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
