Ravens vs. Chargers NFL Week 12: Prediction, Odds, Spread, Picks & Best Bets

In most years, the quarterback from the No. 1 team in the AFC tends to be the runaway pick for the NFL MVP, but that’s not the case this year considering Patrick Mahomes is having a down year for the 9-1 Chiefs.

Those struggles have put Jackson in a great position to win his second straight MVP, but Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is playing like the most valuable player now – even though he is tied for seventh-shortest odds (+2000). The Chargers quarterback has gone eight straight games without an interception (he’s thrown just one interception this year) and has a 62.9% completion rate over his last six games.

But even with Herbert’s excellent play, the Chargers revival has been based around Harbaugh and the team’s defense. LA has only allowed 21-plus points once (in last week’s 34-27 win over the Bengals) and leads the NFL in points-against per game (14.5).

The Ravens’ defense has been one of the worst in football, though some of that has been dictated by game scripts since they’re first in the NFL against the run (77.5 yards against per game). Baltimore ranks 26th in the NFL in yards against per game (362.0) and 32nd in passing yards against (284.5).

The Chargers are 12th in the NFL in rushing yards, which means Herbert could be in line to have a huge game. LA’s offense has surpassed 26 points in four straight games, but it’s also scored 15 points or fewer in its three losses.

Given the Ravens are 23rd in points against per game (24.6), LA’s defense and the fact the Chargers are 2-1 in their last three one-score games, we will back the Chargers as a home, plus-money underdog, especially since they currently have the better kicker.

If we are backing the Chargers to win, we’re also taking them to cover +2.5. But if you are at all concerned about them winning outright, we would recommend taking an alternate spread of +3 (-131) or +3.5 (-151).

The Chargers are 8-2 against a +2.5 spread, with their 17-15 loss to the Cardinals serving as their lone defeat by fewer than seven points. But three of Baltimore’s seven wins have come by three points or fewer, including its one-point win over the Bengals on Thursday Night Football in Week 10.

Still, this could be a very close game, no matter who wins. Thus, we will back LA +2.5.

The Chargers have been the stingiest team in football even after allowing 27 points Sunday night. Meanwhile, the Ravens’ defense has quietly improved over the last few weeks, averaging 20.7 points allowed over their last three games.

This might be a big game for kickers (more below) and punters, and this game could once again prove that lowish-scoring games can be very entertaining. This is a super-high bar to clear too, since a 27-24 game would only result in a push.

We’ll back the Under.

Cameron Dicker Over 7.5 Kicking Points (-105)

Dicker has surpassed this prop in three of LA’s past four games and four of the past six. The Ravens have allowed eight-plus kicking points in three of their past six games, too.

Dicker is averaging 8.2 kicking points per game, has a long of 59 yards and is 5-for-6 on kicks of 50-plus yards, which means if the Chargers get across the 45-yard line they’re in his range.

With the way the Ravens are allowing yards, Dicker should be in line for at least three field goal attempts, but could get there with two field goals and two extra points.

Lamar Jackson Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The Chargers are allowing about 111 rushing yards per game, and Jackson’s putting up about 54 yards per game on the ground. Jackson may be running for his life against LA’s pass rush, which is tied for fifth in the NFL in sacks (34).

The Chargers will sell out to slow down the NFL’s leading rusher, Derrick Henry, which could also leave Jackson to carry the Baltimore running game in the RPO. Jackson has topped this number in three of Baltimore’s past five games, including its 46-yard showing on four carries against the Steelers on Sunday.

• Moneyline: Chargers (+120). The Chargers are rolling, are well-coached and should be able to hold off the Ravens thanks to their stingy defense.
• Spread: Chargers +2.5 (-105). This spread would be better at +3 or +3.5, especially if you think the Ravens will end up winning. But if you are backing the Chargers then join us in +2.5.
• Over/Under: Under 51 (-112). The defenses in this game are elite, and the Ravens’ ‘D’ is a little better than their stats indicate. This could end 24-21, which would mean the Under would hit with relative ease.
• Cameron Dicker Over 7.5 Kicking Points (-105). Dicker has missed just two field goals all season and is 11-for-13 from beyond 40 yards. With the way the Ravens have allowed yards, Dicker should be in line for at least three made field goals.
• Lamar Jackson Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115). Jackson might have to run for his life and could also be the beneficiary of LA selling out to stop Derrick Henry. Either way, he should reach 45 rushing yards, since he has done so in three of the Ravens’ past five games.