Ravens vs. Steelers Week 11: Prediction, Odds, Spread, Picks & Best Bets

While the AFC North is always competitive, this is arguably the NFL’s best rivalry right now.

Despite going 4-2 with Justin Fields at quarterback to start the season, the Steelers are 3-0 since Wilson took over. The former Super Bowl champ has dramatically improved Pittsburgh’s passing game, averaging over four additional yards per completion compared to Fields.

But the matchup to watch will be the Ravens’ high-octane offense against the Steelers’ dominant defense, especially on the ground. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing yards per game (182.6), while Pittsburgh ranks fourth in rushing yards allowed per game (87.1).

Jackson and Offensive Player of the Year candidate Derrick Henry have created a dynamic 1-2 punch in the Ravens’ run game. Jackson leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards (538), while Henry leads the league in rushing yards (1,120) and total touchdowns (14).

However, Baltimore’s defense is among the worst in the league under first-year defensive coordinator Zach Orr. The Ravens rank 32nd in passing-yards against (294.9), 27th in total yards against (367.9) and 25th in points against per game (25.3).

Baltimore is also unlikely to have standout safety Kyle Hamilton, who left last week’s game with an ankle injury.

The Steelers have dominated this rivalry of late, winning seven of the past eight games in this series. Accordingly, look for them to protect their home-field advantage and win a close game outright.

If the Steelers are going to win outright, then you should trust them to cover a +3 spread. We don’t think this game will be decided by more than a field goal, as the Ravens are 4-4-2 against a -3 spread and three of their seven wins have come by three points or fewer.

On the other side, Pittsburgh is 7-0-2 against a +3 spread this season. Nine of the last 10 games in this series have been decided by one score, including two games that went to overtime.

The Steelers are 3-1 at home this year and have covered +3 in all four home games. Back them to do so again this week.

The total is where the game gets interesting. Both teams have dynamic offenses but tend to play low-scoring games when they meet up.

The Under has hit in seven straight matchups between these teams, none of which cracked 40 points.

That said, the Ravens’ defense isn’t what it used to be, and the Steelers have their best offense in years. Pittsburgh’s last four games have all hit the Over, while Baltimore’s games are 9-1 against the Over this year.

As such, trust both offenses to keep rolling this week and take the Over.

Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115)

Wilson is averaging two touchdown passes per game and has topped this prop in two of three games, including last week when he threw a season-high three touchdowns on the road against a tough Washington Commanders defense.

He should have no problem tossing multiple TDs this week against the Ravens’ porous secondary. Through 10 games, Baltimore has allowed the most passing yards per game (294.9) and passing touchdowns (22), making this a prime matchup for Wilson to keep rolling.

At plus odds, this prop bet is a good value play.

Derrick Henry Under 86.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Henry is averaging 112 rushing yards per game this year but has gone under this prop in two of his last three games, averaging 82.3 rushing yards per game during that stretch. Part of the reason has been Baltimore leaning on its passing game after falling behind, which could happen if Pittsburgh jumps out to an early lead on Sunday.

The Steelers are also tough against the run, ranking fourth in rushing yards-against per game and yards per carry allowed (3.8). Mike Tomlin will likely load the box and try to force Jackson to beat them through the air.

Henry has also struggled against Pittsburgh in the past, as Tomlin has done a good job bottling him up. He’s gone under this line in all three of his career games against the Steelers, averaging 60.7 rushing yards per game in those meetings.

• Moneyline: Steelers (+152). Both teams are rolling, but the Steelers have home-field advantage and a slightly better defense, which should make the difference.
• Spread: Steelers +3 (-102). In what should be a close game, give us the points with the home team.
• Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-106). Both teams are scoring tons of points and Baltimore’s defense has been atrocious this year.
• Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115). Look for Wilson to light up the league’s worst secondary, especially if Hamilton doesn’t play.
• Derrick Henry Under 86.5 Rushing Yards (-114). This is a high bar to clear for 30-year-old running back against one of the best run defenses in the league.