Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
- When: Sunday, Sept. 24 (Week 3)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, WI)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Saints +105, Packers -125
- Spread: Saints +2 (-112), Packers -2 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 42 (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The 1-1 Green Bay Packers look to fend off the 2-0 New Orleans Saints in Week 3 of the 2023 NFL schedule. The game acts as Green Bay’s home opener after the Packers split their first two games on the road, earning a solid win in Week 1 before blowing a lead to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2.
New quarterback Jordan Love has held his own for Green Bay through two games and is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes alongside Kirk Cousins with six. Despite their youth, the Packers have remained one of the more fun teams to watch on offense.
Meanwhile, Derek Carr has started a new era for the Saints in quality fashion, and the defense has been strong, holding the Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers below 20 points.
At +3000 futures odds for New Orleans and +5000 for Green Bay to win the Super Bowl, both teams can improve their odds with a strong performance on Sunday.
Moneyline
The Packers listed as -125 moneyline odds to win is fairly surprising, especially after last week’s painful loss. This game will be Love’s biggest test yet as a starter after facing two of 2022’s worst teams and going 1-1 against them.
Green Bay’s unit of young receivers already seems to be gelling. They’ve performed superbly without last year’s emergent rookie star Christian Watson, who has missed the first two games with a hamstring injury and is questionable to play in Week 3. The Packers also missed top running back Aaron Jones last week. If one or both of them return, the Saints’ defense will have its hands full.
New Orleans’ defense has started strong thus far, holding quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill and Bryce Young below 300 passing yards. The Saints’ pass rush has been aggressive, with seven sacks and four turnovers thus far. However, Green Bay’s offensive line has given Love plenty of time to throw and has only allowed two sacks.
Love has handled the ball well and avoided turnovers, which will be critical in keeping his team ahead on the scoreboard. Back the Packers to win at home.
Point Spread
The point spread in either direction for this game is a risky pick, but Green Bay gets the nod simply for putting up more points in each game than New Orleans.
Again, monitor the statuses of Jones and Watson leading up to this contest. If one or both are active, the Packers become a much stronger play, as their offense will be more potent.
The Saints have gotten the job done in their wins, but the passing attack still leaves much to be desired. Carr has only found the end zone once, picking up where he left off after a brutal finish to 2022 that got him benched with the Las Vegas Raiders.
New Orleans has relied on its running game, but that will be shorthanded this week. Alvin Kamara is serving the final game of his suspension, and Jamaal Williams—the lead back in his absence—is unlikely to play with a hamstring injury.
Both teams are coming off games decided by three points or less, and the Saints prevailed in Week 1 by just one point. Expect another tight one here that goes down to the wire, but for Green Bay’s superior offense to ultimately prevail and win by at least a field goal.
Over/Under
The Under 42 total points is the pick to make in this game, especially if Jones, Watson and Williams are all limited or unable to suit up.
Defensively, the Packers were pulverized by the Falcons’ running game last week as Bijan Robinson ran all over them. They won’t have to worry about that this week with Kamara out, however. If Williams also sits, the Saints’ rushing attack will be limited.
That will allow Green Bay’s defense to sit back and focus on New Orleans’ passing game, likely resulting in another lackluster outing for Carr.
Love will face more defensive pressure this week and may endure his first multi-sack outing of the season, limiting his effectiveness in the pocket.
With both defenses set up for strong games here, expect a lower-scoring contest that hits the Under.
Player Prop
The running backs get the player prop bet focus in this game, with Aaron Jones at +145 for an anytime touchdown score and Tony Jones Jr. at +165 in the same category.
Assuming the former Jones plays, he should get a healthy number of touches and lead the Packers’ backfield. Jones is a threat to score through the air and on the ground, as he showed in Week 1 by notching a receiving TD and a rushing TD. He’s a versatile target for Love and a security blanket for the young QB. Jones at +750 to score the game’s first touchdown is also a playable gamble.
Meanwhile, the other Jones emerged nicely in last week’s win for the Saints. The former Denver Bronco had both of his team’s touchdowns, rushing 12 times and playing on 52% of the offensive snaps. With Williams likely out, Jones is again in line for a robust workload, especially near the goal line.
Considering Green Bay’s struggles with Robinson last week, look for Jones to exploit the Packers’ vulnerable run defense.
Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images
