Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
- When: Monday, Sept. 18 (Week 2)
- Time: 7:15 p.m. EST
- Where: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Saints -166, Panthers +140
- Spread: Saints -3 (-110), Panthers +3 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 39.5 (-115/-105)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The 2023 NFL schedule featured an exciting slate of Week 2 matchups. An intense NFC South rivalry will be highlighted Monday evening when the New Orleans Saints visit the Carolina Panthers for one of two Monday Night Football tilts.
After the Panthers won both matchups against the Saints in 2022, all eyes will be on Frank Reich’s team to see if they continue the trend this week.
New Orleans opened up the new campaign with a scrappy 16-15 win over the Tennessee Titans, while Carolina couldn’t get the job done on the road, falling 24-10 to the rival Atlanta Falcons.
Winning on Monday is crucial if either team hopes to challenge for the Super Bowl later this season. As far as FanDuel Sportsbook’s futures odds go, the Saints sit at +2800 odds while the Panthers are at a distant +14000.
Moneyline
Regarding the moneyline, New Orleans looks like a strong play as the road favorite.
The Saints displayed a terrific defensive effort in Week 1, holding the Titans to 285 total yards while holding them out of the end zone. On top of that, New Orleans held Tennessee to a 16.7% success rate (2-of-12) on third downs and even picked off quarterback Ryan Tannehill three times.
We can’t imagine the Panthers having much success against that unit. Their offense wasn’t anything special last week, averaging 3.9 yards on 72 plays while turning the ball over three times — including a pair of interceptions from rookie QB Bryce Young.
Meanwhile, Derek Carr looked solid under center for the Saints, going 23-of-33 (69.7%) in the pocket for 305 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
If Carr can build off that performance and the defense turns in another strong performance, New Orleans won’t have much of an issue picking up the win.
Point Spread
Even with the Saints favored on the moneyline, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Panthers cover the three-point spread. Carolina was the more consistent of the two against the spread in 2022, going 9-8 ATS (tied for 10th-best), whereas New Orleans went an underwhelming 7-10-1 ATS (tied for sixth-worst).
While victory eluded them in Week 1, the Panthers were tied with the Falcons after each of the first three quarters before getting outscored 14-0 in the final frame. Reich is a good coach and will likely have Carolina playing more disciplined on Monday night.
The Panthers are also 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall while paying to a 4-1 ATS record in their previous five outings at Bank of America Stadium. Meanwhile, the Saints went an abysmal 1-5 ATS against the NFC South last year and failed to cover in both games against Carolina.
Furthermore, Carolina has covered the spread eight times in its 11 previous encounters with New Orleans.
The Panthers know how to keep things closer than oddsmakers expect, especially when the Saints are involved. A rowdy crowd at the home opener will only further motivate Carolina to avoid another embarrassing loss, making the Panthers the better spread pick.
Over/Under Total
With the Over/Under sitting at 39.5 points, the Under looks like the better option. Both sides were involved in low-scoring Week 1 matchups as the Saints and Titans combined for 31 points, while the Panthers-Falcons clash only saw 34 points on the board.
Neither of those outcomes is surprising, given that New Orleans and Carolina averaged the 11th- and 13th-fewest points, respectively, in 2022. Even though both offenses changed in the offseason, last week’s performances prove that the two units still have a lot of room for improvement.
The Under also hit more often than not for both NFC South franchises last year. The Under went 9-8 in Panthers games (52.9%), while 64.7% of Saints games finished with fewer points than projected (11-6 Under record).
Backing the Under makes even more sense with how Carolina-New Orleans matchups tend to be low-scoring affairs. The last five encounters between these rivals saw an average total of just 30.6 points, with fewer than 40 in each game. They last combined for 41 or more points during Week 7 of the 2020 season.
Unless both offenses have completely transformed since Sunday, don’t expect to see many points by the time the final whistle blows.
Player Prop
One appealing Saints vs. Panthers player prop is for New Orleans running back Jamaal Williams to score an anytime touchdown at +135 odds.
With No. 1 running back Alvin Kamara suspended for two more games, Williams will continue seeing the lion’s share of opportunities in the Saints’ backfield. He saw 66.7% of carries last week, and even though he didn’t do much with the opportunity (45 rushing yards), his usage rate is encouraging.
Accordingly, look for Williams to bounce back on Monday. After all, he led the NFL with 17 rushing TDs in 2022. Now he gets to face a Carolina frontline that just allowed 5.0 rushing yards per carry and two rushing TDs to Atlanta, meaning Williams will likely see his fair share of opportunities to score.
With nine TDs in his last nine road games, look for the veteran rusher to find paydirt again.
Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images
