Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: Seattle Seahawks (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)
- When: Sunday, Oct. 15 (Week 6)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
- Where: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati, OH)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Seahawks +136, Bengals -162
- Spread: Seahawks +3 (-112), Bengals -3 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 45 (-112/-108)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
Cincinnati Bengals fans can let out a small sigh of relief. Joe Burrow finally had a solid Week 5 outing after looking subpar (at best) in his first four games. Finally, Burrow bore somewhat of a resemblance to the quarterback who led the Bengals to a Super Bowl appearance in just his second NFL season.
Burrow’s struggles could be partially attributed to the calf injury that he suffered before the start of the 2023 season, but there’s little chance that that is the whole story. It can’t help that Cincinnati has the seventh-worst pass block grade from PFF through five games.
A stable performance against an Arizona Cardinals defense that ranks 26th in opponent passing yards per game and 29th in opponent completion percentage doesn’t give us much of an indication of whether Burrow’s slow start has come to an end or not, though.
Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks could hardly have asked for a better start to their 2023 campaign. They’re 3-1 heading into Week 6 and haven’t lost since Week 1. Since then, the Seahawks have won two games by double digits and authored an exceptional overtime road win against the Detroit Lions – one of the NFL’s best teams.
Will Burrow build on the momentum from last week and snap out of the funk he was in? Or will Seattle shut him down and unexpectedly advance to 4-1?
Moneyline
The Bengals are slight home favorites here with moneyline odds of -162, while the Seahawks are road underdogs at +136. Cincinnati has a 1-1 record at home so far in 2023, while Seattle is undefeated (2-0) on the road.
If last week was not a “must-win” game for the Bengals, then it’s hard to say what would actually qualify. They avoided dropping to 1-4 by grabbing a huge, double-digit road win against the Cardinals, who have played better than expected but are still 1-4.
So, can Cincinnati get back to .500 and keep its chances of winning a third straight division title in sight?
Expect the Bengals to display that same sense of urgency from last week. Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase seem to have gotten back into rhythm (Chase nearly had 200 receiving yards last week) and should continue that against the Seahawks’ bottom-10 secondary. If Tee Higgins (rib) plays, it would just be a bonus for this Cincinnati offense that could be turning a corner.
Point Spread
The Bengals are favored by three points on the spread at home, which is the typical advantage afforded to home teams by oddsmakers. Seattle has covered the spread in three of its four games, including in both of its road games this season. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has a 1-3-1 record against the spread thus far.
As with the moneyline, the Bengals are the preferred play here. Cincinnati has won seven of its last eight home games with Burrow under center, with the only loss coming by three points to the Baltimore Ravens earlier this season. In those seven wins, the Bengals have won by three or more points every time.
If you can find Cincinnati at -2.5 on any sportsbook, it could be worth serious consideration. The Bengals have more offensive firepower than the Seahawks, a better quarterback and home-field advantage, which should help them secure a second straight win.
Over/Under Total
The Over/Under for this matchup sits at 45 points, which Seattle and Cincinnati have been on both sides of so far in the 2023 regular season. As a road team, the Seahawks have a 1-1 “Over” record against this line, while the same can be said for the Bengals at home.
While Seattle did shut down the New York Giants, holding them to just three points in its last game, it has allowed close to 30 points per game to its other three opponents (Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers) this season. This defense is by no means a flawless unit.
The Seahawks’ run defense will hold Joe Mixon to a modest line, but Burrow should have a field day against a secondary that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete nearly 69% of their throws for an average of 280 passing yards per game.
However, Cincinnati’s defense is also far from perfect, ranking 20th in opponent points per game and 21st in opponent total yards per game. This game should feature plenty of offense, making the Over the preferred choice.
Player Prop
Seattle’s greatest strength thus far has been its run-stopping defense, which has held opposing running backs to the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game (87.5) and the fewest yards per attempt (3.2).
The Seahawks also have by far the NFL’s best rush defense grade from PFF despite floundering in that department last year. They are led by linebacker Bobby Wagner – who has the best run defense grade in the NFL per PFF – along with Uchenna Nwosu (10th-highest grade) and cornerback Devon Witherspoon (17th-highest grade).
Joe MIxon’s rushing yards player prop line is currently at 64.5 yards with -115 odds on both sides. The Under could be a solid play for this game not only due to Seattle’s stout run defense but also because of Mixon’s below-average output.
Mixon has hit the Over on this line three times in five games so far, but in two of those instances he barely went over with 65 and 67 yards. Overall, he’s averaging just 60.1 rushing yards per game since the beginning of last year.
Now 27 and in his seventh NFL season, Mixon is no longer an elite running back. He ranks 30th in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt, while his PFF run grade of 69.2 ranks 44th among eligible running backs.
With Chase re-asserting himself as Burrow’s top weapon, look for Mixon to take a back seat in the Bengals’ offense this week, especially if he struggles early against the Seahawks’ run defense.
