Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions Week 4: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

For all of its weapons, the Lions’ offense hasn’t quite gotten unleashed, at least in terms of scoring points. Detroit ranks fourth in both total yards and rushing yards per game but is only 16th in points per game (20.7). Campbell’s squad has yet to score more than 20 points in regulation this season and is averaging a full touchdown less than last year (27.1 points per game).

Those scoring issues may be a problem against the Seahawks’ stingy defense, which is ceding the fourth-fewest points and second-fewest yards per game. Seattle’s unit is also coming off its best performance of the season after holding the Miami Dolphins (sans Tua Tagovailoa) to just a field goal and 205 total yards last week.

But the Lions aren’t the Dolphins, nor are they the New England Patriots or Denver Broncos. Jared Goff is by far the most experienced and talented quarterback the Seahawks have faced, making this their biggest test of the year so far.

Seattle has owned this rivalry lately, winning nine of its last 10 matchups with Detroit, including the last six in a row. However, the Lions are the more talented team and have home-field advantage.

Detroit has a balanced offense that ranks seventh in passing yards and fourth in rushing yards, so it should be able to move the ball effectively against the Seahawks. The Lions racked up 187 yards on the ground last week, so look for them to run wild against the Seahawks’ middling run defense (15th in rushing yards allowed) and win outright.

The four-point spread is angst-inducing even though Detroit has covered this line in both of its wins.

Still, wagering a team to cover -4 seems safe until it isn’t, and there’s an extra pang of frustration for bettors who have -4 when they watch a game-winning field goal go through.

That said, the Lions have enough offensive talent to potentially win this game by a touchdown. They should also be able to control the clock with their running game, keeping the high-octane Seahawks pinned to the sidelines.

Back Detroit to cover -4, even with the extra nervousness that comes with it.

For some reason, these teams bring out the offense in each other. Their last three meetings have all produced at least 68 points, including their last two matchups at Ford Field.

The cast of characters hasn’t drastically changed during that time, minus Macdonald replacing Pete Carroll on Seattle’s sideline.

Even though both teams have played well defensively so far, we’re taking the Over.

Geno Smith Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-125)

Smith has cleared this prop easily in each of his last two games and is averaging 262.3 passing yards per game this year. He’s also surpassed 300 passing yards in each of his last two games against the Lions.

This is a good matchup for him, too, as Detroit ranks 19th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (216.7).

The Seahawks have been fairly pass-heavy this season, throwing the ball 28 more times than they have run it. Smith has attempted 78 passes over the last two weeks combined and should have another big day airing it out, especially if Seattle falls behind.

• Check out our full Week 4 MNF prop bets.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Gibbs and David Montgomery (65.5 yards) should both surpass their rushing yards props against the Seahawks, who will have to keep Detroit’s running attack more honest than they did against the Dolphins and their backup quarterbacks last week.

Gibbs is averaging 69 rushing yards per game this year and has cleared this prop in his last two games. We like this prop because it’s a relatively low bar to clear, as Gibbs needs just 11 carries at his career rushing average (5.2) to surpass this prop.

The second-year back has notched at least 11 totes in every game this year and has seen his usage increase each week, making this a good bet to target.

• Moneyline: Lions (-198). The Seahawks haven’t faced a real contender yet and have benefitted from one of the easiest schedules in the NFL so far. Look for the Lions to give them a wake-up call.
• Spread: Lions -4 (-112). We’d prefer to avoid the hook with an alternate line of -2.5 or -3, but if Detroit wins it will probably do so by at least four points.
• Total: Over 47 Points (-110). The last three games between these teams have averaged over 80 points, making the Over an easy call.
• Geno Smith Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-125). Smith lit up the Lions the last two times he faced them. The Seahawks may not win, but Smith should get his numbers.
• Jahmyr Gibbs Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115). Gibbs has topped 80 rushing yards in each of the last two weeks and is coming off a season-high 16 carries. Montgomery is still the lead back in Detroit, but not by much.

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