Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 19 (Week 11)
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium (Cleveland)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Steelers +100, Browns -120
- Spread: Steelers +1.5 (-110), Browns -1.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 33 (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) will travel to Cleveland to battle the Browns (6-3) in Week 11 of the 2023 NFL schedule. This game is expected to be highly competitive based on the narrow odds, but Cleveland suffered a massive blow earlier this week.
Deshaun Watson needs season-ending shoulder surgery, putting the Browns in a challenging situation. Watson was expected to be the franchise quarterback but hasn’t played much since joining the team last year because of a suspension and injuries.
This leaves Cleveland with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who will start on Sunday. Watson is the second significant offensive injury for the Browns this season following the loss of star running back Nick Chubb earlier in the year.
The Steelers’ Super Bowl odds currently are priced at 70/1, while Cleveland’s odds fell to 50/1 in the futures market following the Watson news.
Moneyline
The moneyline slightly favors the Browns in the AFC North rivalry matchup, but we will side with Pittsburgh at +100. The spread isn’t an appealing market for the Steelers with just 1.5 points of protection, so there’s more value in going with the plus-odds on the moneyline.
Pittsburgh’s defense has taken “bend-don’t-break” to the extreme in 2023. The Steelers have allowed the fifth-most yards per game this season but the 11th-fewest points, stepping up in the red zone and forcing the most turnovers in the NFL (18).
Turnovers and defensive touchdowns are the main reasons Pittsburgh is 6-3. The offense has been underwhelming with Kenny Pickett leading the way, ranking 26th in scoring and 28th in yardage.
Nevertheless, good teams find a way to win, and Mike Tomlin knows how to attack opponents in high-leverage situations. Thompson-Robinson is the perfect target for Tomlin’s defense because of his inexperience.
The rookie out of UCLA has started one game this season, which was a disaster. He threw three interceptions against the Baltimore Ravens, and Sunday could repeat this horrendous performance.
Tomlin is 25-5 against rookie quarterbacks in his career, a trend that’s hard to dispute.
Point Spread
Cleveland is a 1.5-point favorite in the spread market. We recommend taking the points with the Steelers, but the moneyline is the more attractive betting option.
The biggest questions for this game revolve around Pickett. Pittsburgh has the advantage of playing against a rookie quarterback, but Pickett hasn’t been much of a weapon.
The Steelers’ offense hasn’t clicked, and it’s a reason fans are calling for offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s resignation. The play calling hasn’t been great, but Pickett has also missed easy throws and hasn’t been consistent in the pocket.
Pickett has a steep challenge against this Browns defense, which has been one of the best units in the NFL with the fewest yards and sixth-fewest points allowed per game. NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith should be in Pickett’s face all game, leading to bad throws.
Look for Canada to lean on the run to set up the pass in this game and call a lot of quick aerial concepts. The fastest way for Pittsburgh to lose will be through turnovers.
If Pickett protects the football, the Steelers should win this low-scoring war of attrition and cover as road dogs.
Over/Under
The Over/Under is the lowest projected total of the week at 33, but we’re leaning toward the Under.
Our best bet would be to fade this market because of the line’s shallowness. However, if you want to play the total, Under is the more viable betting pick.
As mentioned above, both defenses are fearsome. The quarterbacks are also inconsistent. This should produce a sluggish game where both offenses struggle to move the ball and punt more often than they score.
This game will likely see several turnovers and more field goals than touchdowns, with drives stalling in the red zone. Both offenses will probably rely on their running backs to protect the ball, especially Cleveland with Watson out.
Player Prop
A playable prop bet is Dorian Thompson-Robinson Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-120). Thompson-Robinson is a natural pocket passer, but he has leaned on his legs extensively in his brief NFL experience.
In the preseason, DTR was known to scramble, which helped him land a spot on the Browns roster. His style is very similar to Watson’s, which is one of the reasons the franchise drafted him in the fifth round.
Rushing props are always solid wagers for rookie quarterbacks. NFL speed is faster than college, and young quarterbacks need time to process information. This often leads to the pocket collapsing and QBs using their feet to make plays.
Thompson-Robinson will be under pressure throughout the game from Tomlin’s defense. We expect players like T.J. Watt to be in his face, which should make Thompson-Robinson run.
In his lone career start, DTR has had four rushing attempts for 24 yards with a long carry of 12 yards. We expect similar numbers on Sunday.
Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images
