Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans
- When: Sunday, Oct. 1 (Week 4)
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Where: NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Steelers -148, Texans +126
- Spread: Steelers -3 (-102), Texans +3 (-120)
- Total: Over/Under 41.5 (-115/-105)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The 2023 NFL schedule continues to fly by with Week 4’s arrival. The upcoming slate of games includes a showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans on Sunday afternoon.
The Steelers look to improve to 2-0 on the road this season following last week’s 23-18 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. The Texans, meanwhile, are coming off their first win of the season, scoring a 37-17 victory over the rival Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium.
The Steelers have an opportunity to silence their doubters if they can improve to 3-1 while a victory would see the Texans enter Week 5 with a .500 record for the first time since 2019.
FanDuel Sportsbook’s futures odds highlight the importance of a win in this matchup if either team hopes to become a playoff contender. The Steelers sit at +3800 odds to win Super Bowl LVIII, while the Texans are much further down the list at +30000.
Moneyline
The Steelers have the edge on the moneyline in this matchup and that likely won’t change by game time.
Pittsburgh is available at -148 odds to win on the road, meaning a $100 wager would lead to a $167.57 payout of the ‘Black and Yellow’ get the job done.
Having said that, it’s somewhat surprising to see the Steelers at 2-1.
Pittsburgh hasn’t played efficient football on either side of the ball. Mike Tomlin’s team currently averages the sixth-fewest total yards while allowing the fifth-most.
The Steelers’ victories also weren’t all that convincing. On top of both their victories coming by just one score each, they nearly blew a 16-point fourth-quarter lead against the Raiders last week.
The Texans aren’t the better team on paper, but there’s no denying that they were impressive in their 20-point win over the Jaguars.
Houston QB C.J. Stroud was great at spreading out the ball, connecting with nine different teammates for 20 receptions, 280 passing yards, and two touchdowns without an interception.
If the Texans passing game gets into a rhythm early, the Steelers will have a tough time turning things around, especially after surrendering 324 yards and three TDs through the air last week.
With Houston also backed by the home-field advantage, an upset is a real possibility.
Point Spread
The Steelers might be the 3-point spread favorite in this Week 5 clash, but that doesn’t mean they’re the right pick to cover.
For starters, the Steelers’ two wins so far came by an average of 4.5 points, which doesn’t invoke much confidence for them to win by four or more this week.
It also doesn’t help that Pittsburgh has a worse average scoring margin through three weeks (minus-4.7) than Houston (minus-2.3).
Covering will also be difficult due to Pittsburgh’s struggles to extend drives. The Steelers are tied for averaging the 11th-fewest yards per play while also boasting the seventh-worst third-down conversion rate.
Furthermore, they went three-and-out four times last week while only tallying 20 total yards without a single point in the fourth quarter.
The Texans’ ability to score in multiple ways gives them a better chance to cover. Houston scored three offensive touchdowns, three field goals, and a kick return TD to come up with 37 points in Week 3.
If the Texans can pounce on the Steelers’ inability to consistently sustain drives, Houston is in a great spot to cover as the underdog.
Over/Under
In a Week 4 showdown where the Over/Under is set at 41.5 points, the Over is the more appealing option.
There’s been a decent amount of scoring in both sides’ games this season. The Steelers’ three games so far saw an average of 42 points scored, while the Texans’ trio saw 46.3, going over 41.5 in each of their last two.
A big reason why we could see a high-scoring affair at NRG Stadium is that both defenses are below average. The Steelers and Texans rank in the bottom half of the NFL when it comes to scoring defense, passing yards allowed, and red-zone defense — all the makings for a shootout.
With two bottom-five run games colliding in Houston, this meeting will likely be played through the air.
Passing plays are how the majority of the points in the league are scored, opening the door for both teams to score their fair share of points this Sunday.
Player Prop
The upcoming Steelers vs. Texans showdown has a wide variety of player props worth considering, including Tank Dell scoring an anytime touchdown at +300 odds.
The rookie wide receiver has been one of Stroud’s favorite weapons, ranking third on the team with 23 targets. He’s caught 15 of those passes for 260 receiving yards with two TDs and is coming off a 5-145-1 stat line last week.
With touchdowns in back-to-back outings, Dell has a good chance to score again. The Steelers struggle to cover wideouts, allowing the sixth-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards, as well as four TD passes to the position.
With the looming potential of a shootout at NRG Stadium, Dell is, once again, a threat to find paydirt.
Photo by Fred Vuich/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images
