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One longshot Super Bowl wager for bettors to consider is on an offensive lineman scoring a touchdown.
For the 2024 Big Game between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, DraftKings Sportsbook offered this market at 35/1 odds – an implied probability of just 2.78%. DraftKings offered the same odds in 2023 as well.
But how likely is it that an offensive lineman finds the end zone? Using history as a guide, the odds are longer than online sportsbooks imply
‘Refrigerator’ Perry Super Bowl TD
There have been 318 touchdowns scored through the first 58 Super Bowls, yet only one was scored by a lineman who lined up on the offensive side of the ball.
William “Refrigerator” Perry punctuated the Chicago Bears’ lopsided Super Bowl XX victory over the New England Patriots with a one-yard TD plunge that made the score 44-3 in the third quarter.
“The Fridge” is often referred to as the only offensive lineman to score a Super Bowl touchdown, but that’s not completely accurate.
Perry’s primary position was defensive tackle, and he lined up at fullback before his Super Bowl touchdown. Super Bowl prop wagers weren’t the phenomenon they are today, so there was no specific market for a touchdown scored by an offensive lineman. That said, Caesars Sportsbook did have a Perry touchdown on its board at 20/1.
Any bettor taking a flier on an offensive lineman scoring a Super Bowl TD should check with their book to see which players would qualify.
Remarkably, a Super Bowl touchdown hasn’t been scored on a play like a tackle-eligible pass.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers tackle Joe Haeg did come close a few years ago in Super Bowl LV, nearly hauling in a TD pass in the back of the end zone that Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Anthony Hitchens barely broke up.
Offensive Linemen Touchdowns Are Rare
It doesn’t take too much critical thinking to see why an offensive lineman scoring a touchdown in the Super Bowl has such long odds.
The teams competing for the Lombardi Trophy likely have plenty of talented pass-catchers on the roster. With so much at stake, coaches prefer to trust them in passing situations rather than guys who use their arms to block.
Super Bowl teams might not always have the best defenses, but they’re usually well-coached enough not to be caught napping when an offensive lineman reports as eligible.
Offenses are also less likely to use unconventional plays when the score is close, which is often the case in the Super Bowl. Nineteen of the last 21 Super Bowls have been within one possession at some point in the fourth quarter, and 13 of those games were decided by eight points or less.
A close game can still feature some trickery — the “Philly Special” in Super Bowl LII is a recent example – but teams generally want to avoid making critical mistakes on unfamiliar plays.
Even a team up by a lot is unlikely to call a play like that. Perry’s touchdown remains controversial because it deprived future Hall of Famer Walter Payton of the chance to add a Super Bowl touchdown to his amazing resume. It’s also considered bad sportsmanship to rub it in when you’re dominating.
Those factors make an offensive lineman scoring a touchdown even less likely.
Offensive Linemen Regular Season TDs
Offensive linemen don’t score touchdowns in the Super Bowl, but it’s not like they’re parading to the end zone in the regular season.
Of the 1,302 touchdowns scored during the 2023 NFL regular season, none were scored by an offensive lineman.
Only one offensive lineman scored a touchdown during the 2022 regular season, when Carolina Panthers guard Michael Jordan recovered a fumble in the end zone during the season’s final game.
2021 was a halcyon year in this department. Seven touchdowns were scored by offensive linemen in the regular season, including four during Week 16. Two offensive linemen scored touchdowns in the playoffs, as Chiefs tackle Nick Allegretti and Buffalo Bills tackle Tommy Doyle were the recipients of TD passes in lopsided victories.
Only two offensive linemen scored touchdowns in 2020 and four in 2019.
Once the Super Bowl matchup is set, a bettor considering an offensive lineman touchdown wager should see if either team has had a recent offensive lineman score. The 35/1 odds for 2023’s Philly/KC matchup were long, but both starting quarterbacks had TD passes to linemen in the past.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts threw one to tackle Lane Johnson in a game against the New York Giants in 2021, while Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes had two on his resume.
Still, neither math, history nor common sense support making a wager on an offensive lineman to score a Super Bowl touchdown. It could happen at some point and would give bettors a nice return if it does, but don’t count on it.
As for defensive linemen touchdowns in the Super Bowl? There’s only been one in the past two decades.
