The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers took center stage in Super Bowl 58, just like they did four years ago in Super Bowl LIV when the Chiefs won 31-20 after erasing a 10-point deficit.
History repeated itself, as Kansas City overcame another 10-point deficit and prevailed 25-22. Patrick Mahomes spurred the Chiefs’ comeback with 333 passing yards, 66 rushing yards and two touchdowns, winning Super Bowl MVP for the third time in his career.
Mahomes entered the game with the shortest odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, so this outcome wasn’t a major surprise. Only Tom Brady has won more Super Bowl MVPs than Mahomes.
Who Won Super Bowl 58 MVP?
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl MVP honors for the second year in a row and the third time in his career.
Super Bowl 58 was arguably Mahomes’ best Super Bowl performance to date. Not only did he lead his team to an overtime victory — something only Brady had done before in the Big Game — but he also accounted for nearly 400 yards of offense while completing 73.9% of his passes against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Mahomes was playing from behind nearly all game, but he led the game-tying drive at the end of the fourth quarter and the game-winning drive in overtime, showing remarkable poise with a championship on the line.
Super Bowl 58 MVP Odds
Super Bowl 58 MVP Favorites
Patrick Mahomes (+125)
Why can he win? Mahomes has won the Super Bowl MVP in both of his victories, with the most recent win coming last February against the Philadelphia Eagles.
He completed 76.9% of his passes en route to 241 yards and a touchdown in the AFC Championship against the Baltimore Ravens, who led the league in fewest points allowed
Mahomes is also doing more with less offensive talent than he’s had at any point in his career, making his success (and Kansas City’s) even more impressive.
Why can’t he win? Mahomes’ counting numbers are not as strong as in years past, which leaves the door open for one of his teammates. He’s averaging 239.3 passing yards this postseason with four TDs in three playoff games, well below his career standard.
Brock Purdy (+235)
Why can he win? Twelve of the last 17 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks, and Purdy just led the league in yards per attempt and QBR.
He also helped lead second-half comebacks in both playoff games this season and has the benefit of the underdog story boosting his popularity and narrative.
Why can’t he win? Purdy played poorly in the first half of the NFC Championship Game and Divisional Round and can’t afford to fall behind again.
He has only five passing TDs in five career playoff games and is about to face a Chiefs defense that just shut down NFL MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson and held opponents to the second-fewest yards and points during the regular season.
Christian McCaffrey (+450)
Why can he win? McCaffrey led the league in rushing yards and total touchdowns this season and is now up to 25 total TDs on the year.
He scored two touchdowns against both the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers and is always at the center of San Francisco’s offense.
Why can’t he win? The Chiefs have an outstanding defense but were roughly average against the run (18th in rushing yards allowed).
That said, they were more physical than the Ravens last week and could force the Niners to run less than they’d prefer, similar to how Baltimore abandoned its running game early on.
No running back has won Super Bowl MVP since the 1997 season (Terrell Davis), so McCaffrey would need to overcome historical precedent.
Travis Kelce (+1200)
Why can he win? Kelce is Mahomes’ most trusted weapon, especially in the playoffs. He scored three touchdowns in his last two games and just caught his second-most passes of the season (11 for 116 yards).
He’s averaging over 86 receiving yards and has scored 19 times in 21 postseason games, including in two of his three Super Bowl appearances. In the other, he had 133 receiving yards on 10 catches.
Why can’t he win? Kelce is the focal point of Kansas City’s offense and will be a priority matchup for San Francisco, who allowed the third-fewest points per game in the regular season.
The Chiefs also seem content running the ball near the goal line more than in years past, which could lead to fewer scoring opportunities for the 34-year-old.
Deebo Samuel (+2000)
Why can he win? Samuel caught eight passes for 89 yards last week and looked like the Niners’ most dangerous receiver. His speed gives him the ability to rip off big plays without warning.
He had 92 yards on eight touches in Super Bowl LIV and will likely receive at least a few carries mixed into his usual work outside the numbers.
Why can’t he win? Samuel isn’t a prolific downfield receiver like Brandon Aiyuk and can easily fall behind George Kittle and McCaffrey in the passing game.
He’s been held out of the end zone in his last three games overall and in his last four playoff matchups. He also has an injured shoulder that could force him to leave prematurely.
Isiah Pacheco (+2500)
Why can he win? Pacheco has been a touchdown machine lately, racking up eight scores over his last seven games. He’s scored in all three of Kansas City’s playoff games and has been getting a ton of volume with 15-plus touches in nine straight games.
When the Chiefs get down on the goal line, Andy Reid is likely to call Pacheco’s name.
Why can’t he win? As mentioned, a running back hasn’t won Super Bowl MVP in 26 years. Pacheco’s usage in the passing game is inconsistent, as he has just one catch in two of his last three games.
Unlike McCaffrey, Pacheco is a more traditional running back who does most of his damage on the ground. He’s better in short-yardage situations and typically doesn’t erupt for big plays.
Super Bowl 58 Dark Horse Bets
Rashee Rice (+5000)
Why can he win? Rice is Kansas City’s No. 1 wide receiver and has earned Mahomes’ trust, drawing at least nine targets in seven of his last nine games. Rice has four touchdowns and has topped 100 receiving yards three times during that span.
With San Francisco’s defense focused on Kelce, Rice could break free for a few big splash plays.
Why can’t he win? Rice is only a rookie, so the moment may be too big for him. A rookie has never won Super Bowl MVP.
Additionally, Mahomes will likely turn to Kelce in the game’s biggest moments, especially if Rice struggles early in the game.
Brandon Aiyuk (+6000)
Why can he win? Aiyuk is the 49ers’ No. 1 receiver and should be busy after tallying 68 receiving yards with a touchdown in the NFC Championship. He led the team in receiving yards by a considerable margin (1,342) and should get plenty of attention from Purdy.
Why can’t he win? Aiyuk has been relatively quiet in the playoffs with just three catches in both games so far. With only nine catches, one touchdown and 125 receiving yards over his last three games, Aiyuk doesn’t have much momentum heading into the Big Game.
George Kittle (+6000)
Why can he win? Kittle was great in two of his last four games and can be one of the most explosive players on the field when given the opportunity. He caught seven touchdowns in the regular season and playoffs, one behind Aiyuk’s team-high.
Why can’t he win? Kansas City allowed the third-fewest average receiving yards to opposing tight ends (42.6) and just held Baltimore’s TE tandem to four catches and 31 yards.
Kittle has lots of upside, but he’s volatile and was held to fewer than 30 receiving yards twice in the last three games, including in the NFC Championship Game against the Lions.
George Karlaftis (+10000)
Why can he win? The 22-year-old edge-rusher tied for the Chiefs’ team lead with 10.5 regular-season sacks and leads them with 2.5 postseason sacks.
He forced a strip-sack against Jackson in the AFC Championship Game and is facing an offensive line that Pro Football Focus graded as the 21st-best in the league.
Why can’t he win? Defensive players only won two of the last 22 Super Bowl MVPs, with Von Miller being the last to do so in Super Bowl 50.
Karlaftis also shares the defensive line with another dominant player in Chris Jones. It will be hard to outperform him and his stellar offensive teammates in the biggest game of the year.
Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
