It’s finally here. After five months and 284 games, the 2023-24 NFL season concludes on Feb. 11 when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII.
This game features two dynamic offenses that score points in different ways.
The Chiefs’ offense is built around Patrick Mahomes’ incredible talent and improvisation skills, while the 49ers rely on a methodical offense spearheaded by second-year quarterback Brock Purdy.
However, oddsmakers are a little down on these offenses compared to years prior. This year’s Over/Under opened at 47 — the lowest Super Bowl total since Super Bowl 50 in 2016.
A primer for those who are new: When you bet the Over/Under, you’re betting whether an event (in this case, the Super Bowl) will go “Over” or “Under” a total established by the oddsmakers.
In this case, you’ll be betting on whether you think there will be more or less than 48 combined points in the Big Game.
Here’s a look at how these teams have performed against the Over/Under and what to expect once the Super Bowl kicks off.
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Subject to change.
Chiefs Over/Under Trends
While Mahomes and explosive plays go together like smooth jazz and poker night, the Chiefs hit the Under in 70% (14 of 20) of their games this year, which isn’t surprising given their roster.
While there’s no denying Mahomes and Travis Kelce are household names known for their offensive production, the Chiefs’ skill players leave something to be desired.
Second-year running back Isiah Pacheco isn’t much of a breakaway back, while only one Chiefs wide receiver – rookie Rashee Rice – had more than 500 receiving yards in the regular season.
They also had bad luck that resulted in points being taken off the board this season.
In Week 11, Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropped a potential go-ahead touchdown pass against the Philadelphia Eagles that would have put the Over in play.
Three weeks later, the Chiefs had a go-ahead touchdown called back against the Buffalo Bills after Kadarius Toney lined up offsides.
Chiefs had a chance to score the go-ahead TD on this play 😬 pic.twitter.com/lFR4oMLOna
— ESPN (@espn) November 21, 2023
The flip side is that the Chiefs’ defense is one of the league’s best at limiting big plays through the air.
The Chiefs averaged 176.5 yards passing yards allowed during the regular season (the fourth-best mark in the league) while allowing just 17.3 points per game (second-fewest).
The Under has hit in two of the Chiefs’ three postseason games this year, with the lone Over coming in their 27-24 win over the Bills in the Divisional Round.
49ers Over/Under Trends
The 49ers have seen more high-scoring games this season, hitting the Over in 11 of their 19 games (58%). That’s due in large part to Purdy’s solid play.
The second-year starter finished the regular season with 4,280 passing yards, 31 touchdown passes and only 11 interceptions.
Couple that with running back Christian McCaffrey, who notched over 2,000 all-purpose yards and two 1,000-yard pass catchers in Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, and you’ve got a recipe for an offense that can rack up points in bunches.
The 49ers also have a quality defense, yielding just 17.5 points per game and 1,525 yards on the ground (both third-fewest).
The 49ers have split their totals this postseason, hitting the Under in the Divisional Round against the Green Bay Packers before cruising to the Over against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game.
Chiefs-49ers History
There’s plenty of history between these two franchises, starting with their Super Bowl matchup four years ago in Miami.
While the Chiefs won 31-20 thanks to a late comeback, the pregame total was set at 53, meaning the Under hit.
The two teams also faced off last year, with the Chiefs picking up a 44-23 blowout win in Week 7, resulting in a sweat-free Over.
Recent Super Bowl Over/Under History
The Under has been the play lately, hitting in four of the last five Super Bowls. Last year’s game between the Chiefs and Eagles was the only one to hit the Over during that span.
The Chiefs have scored 38, nine and 31 points in the three Super Bowls they’ve made in the Mahomes/Andy Reid era, while the 49ers’ lone recent Super Bowl appearance was the aforementioned loss to Kansas City.
For reference, the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever came in 2019 when the New England Patriots defeated the Los Angeles Rams 13-3.
Our Prediction
While it’s tough to fade Mahomes, the Under seems like the play here. While everyone wants a Super Bowl with abundant offense, we doubt this game will turn into a track meet.
Instead, it seems like the type of game where both coaches pick their spots and try to gain an edge using some deceptive play-calling.
We’re taking the Under for now, but keep an eye out if this number moves. If it dips to 45.5, we suggest pivoting to the Over.
Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
