Through two weeks of the 2023 NFL schedule, there is an unexpected player atop the futures odds to finish as the NFL MVP this year.
That player is Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
The Dolphins improved to 2-0 after defeating the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football in Week 2, 24-17. Both of their wins have come on the road so far.
Miami returns home in Week 3 to take on the Sean Payton-led Denver Broncos, who are 0-2.
Let’s look at the odds for Tagovailoa to win the award at popular sports betting sites like BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel and Caesars.
During the offseason, Tagovailoa was consistently listed around +2000 to win the MVP award, depending on the sportsbook. Below were his odds through the Dolphins’ second game:
| Sportsbook | Odds | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +550 | First |
| DraftKings | +600 | First |
| FanDuel | +500 | First |
| Caesars | +550 | Tied First (with Mahomes) |
Odds subject to change.
Dolphins Offense Feels Unstoppable
With Tagovailoa leading the way, Miami’s offense is off to a hot start. The team’s 60 points through two games ranked third in the NFL.
Tagovailoa has played a large part in that with his excellent passing. The young gunslinger has completed 65.3% of his passes for an NFL-high 715 yards (9.5 yards per attempt) and four touchdowns, along with two interceptions. His adjusted completion percentage—the percentage of aimed passes thrown on target that also accounts for drops—is over 73%.
The fourth-year pro has been aggressive, averaging 10.9 yards per target, and it’s paying off. He’s tied for first in the league in big-time throws (eight), a statistic measured by Pro Football Focus and described as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”
Tagovailoa Pushing the Ball Downfield
In addition to the eight big-time throws mentioned above, Tagovailoa, among all quarterbacks who have played two games at the time of this writing, is attempting the most passes downfield of 20+ yards at 16%. He’s completed six of 12 passes for 193 yards and one touchdown, and that’s where his two interceptions come from.
On passes of 10-19 yards, Tagovalia has completed 55% of his passes for 201 yards.
He’s playing with more confidence this year, too. Of course, having wide receivers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle helps, but he’s putting up deep passing statistics that you’d expect from Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert.
According to Pro Football Focus, Tagovailoa has been pressured on 25.3% of his dropbacks. He’s completed 44.4% of his passes here for 139 yards, though one of his interceptions happened while under pressure.
If he can clean this up, he should further break away from the MVP race.
Mahomes & Chiefs’ Offense Struggle
Right on the heels of Tagovailoa is Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Already a two-time MVP, Mahomes figures to be in the race all season long, potentially against Tagovailoa.
The Chiefs opened their season with a surprising loss in Week 1 to the Detroit Lions. While they rebounded in Week 2 with a road win against the Jacksonville Jaguars, they barely did so, winning 17-9.
Mahomes has completed 62.5% of his passes for 531 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. He has the same touchdown-to-interception ratio as Tagovailoa but has fewer yards. His team is 1-1, averaging only 18.5 points per game through two weeks.
Continuation of Last Year
While Tagovailoa’s start is impressive, it didn’t come out of nowhere. In 13 games last season, Tagovailoa completed 64.8% of his passes for 3,548 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Despite missing four games due to injuries (including a concussion), he still finished ninth in the MVP voting.
Tagovailoa and the Dolphins were 8-0 in the first eight games he finished last year and are 2-0 this year. Miami is 23-13 in his 36 career starts, good for a .639 winning percentage.
Now fully healthy, Tagovailoa is picking up where he left off in hopes of a Super Bowl run.
Outlook for Rest of 2023
Based on the first two weeks, this Dolphins offense has a ton of firepower and doesn’t appear to be slowing down.
Tagovailoa has excellent weapons around him and an offensive-minded coach in Mike McDaniel. Miami’s running game could improve, but there’s still time to figure that out as the season progresses.
Expect Tagovailoa to continue his offensive success as long as he’s healthy. It’s just a matter of whether Mahomes or another MVP candidate can catch up to him.
Statistics from Pro Football Focus and Pro Football Reference.
Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images.
