The Kansas City Chiefs will try to improve to 8-0 when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football in Week 9 at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs (7-0) are the NFL’s only undefeated team, but five of their wins have come by one score. They are 3-0 at home with an average winning margin of seven points.
The Buccaneers (4-4) have lost two straight and three of their last four and sit a game back of the first-place Falcons in the NFC South. Their top two receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, are both unavailable for this game after suffering injuries in Week 7.
Not surprisingly, Kansas City has the shortest Super Bowl odds (+400) at DraftKings. Tampa Bay’s odds have fallen to +7000 due to its recent slump, as it’s fallen 1.5 games behind the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South.
Here is what to expect for this Monday night showdown and how to wager on it at our favorite NFL betting sites.
Game Details
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Monday, Nov. 4, 2024 (Week 9)
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
- Watch: ESPN
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +320, Chiefs -410
- Spread: Buccaneers +9 (-110), Chiefs -9 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 45.5 (-108/-112)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Bucs vs. Chiefs Moneyline
The Chiefs are riding a 13-game win streak dating back to last year and have won six straight at Arrowhead, including the postseason.
No wonder the odds are against the Bucs, who are short-handed without their two best receivers. That will make it tough for Baker Mayfield to keep pace with two-time NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes.
Kansas City’s offense is also banged up without top wideout Rashee Rice and top running back Isiah Pacheco, but both have been effectively replaced by newcomers DeAndre Hopkins and Kareem Hunt.
Furthermore, the Chiefs’ defense is one of the best in the league. While its secondary is just average, Kansas City boasts an elite run defense and ranks top-five in both fewest points (17.6) and fewest yards (295) allowed per game.
Not only has Tampa Bay’s offense been decimated by injury, but its defense has also struggled, allowing at least 27 points in four straight games. The Buccaneers are allowing the third-most yards per game (387.0) and sixth-most points per game (26.6).
The Chiefs are the better team on both sides of the ball and should remain undefeated, even though these odds are too short to take outright.
Bucs vs. Chiefs Spread
This is where things get interesting. The Chiefs are undefeated against the moneyline, but they’re only 2-5 against a nine-point spread this season, including last week’s closer-than-comfortable 27-20 road win over the Las Vegas Raiders.
Two of the Buccaneers’ four losses have come by one score, though both were divisional games against the Falcons. They’ve been blown out in their two non-divisional losses but are 2-1 on the road, with their lone loss coming in overtime.
Even without Evans and Godwin, Tampa Bay’s offense is still dangerous. It’s scored at least 26 points in five straight games and ranks third in scoring at 29.4 points per game.
Kansas City’s defense is good enough to keep the Buccaneers’ depleted offense at bay, but its offense is not good enough to blow out Tampa Bay and win by multiple scores.
Thus, we will back the Bucs to cover +9.
Bucs vs. Chiefs Over/Under
The Buccaneers are scoring and allowing tons of points, as their last five games have seen at least 49 total points. Not surprisingly, their games are 6-2 against the Over this year, including 5-0 in their last five games.
The Chiefs’ offense isn’t what it used to be, but it’s still dangerous, ranking 11th in both scoring and total yardage. They’ve scored at least 26 points in five of seven games this season, including their last three.
Accordingly, this game should feature plenty of points. Tampa Bay still put up 26 points and 432 yards of total offense last week without Evans and Godwin, including 330 yards through the air. The Buccaneers rank first in passing touchdowns, second in passing yards and fourth in rushing yards per attempt.
Therefore, we recommend the Over, especially since it is not too high of a bar to clear.
Bucs vs. Chiefs Props
Baker Mayfield Over 236.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Mayfield is second in the NFL in passing yards per game (273.6) and has hit the Over on this prop in five of eight games this season, including four of his last five.
Despite missing Evans and Godwin last week, Mayfield still torched Atlanta for 330 yards and three touchdowns on 37-of-50 passing. He spread the ball around to nine different receivers and leaned on tight end Cade Otton, who hauled in 9-of-10 targets for 81 yards and two touchdowns.
The Chiefs have been middle-of-the-pack against the pass this year, ranking 17th in passing yards per game (212.7) and 16th in net yards per pass attempt (6.1). That makes this a decent matchup for Mayfield, who’s coming off three straight games with over 300 passing yards.
If the pass-happy Bucs fall behind, they’ll be required to throw, which should help Mayfield clear this relatively low bar.
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+100)
Kelce finally found the end zone last week for his first touchdown of the season. He dominated the Raiders to the tune of 10 catches on 12 targets for 90 yards – all season-highs.
With JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) out and Mahomes devoid of outside receivers, Kelce should be heavily involved again on Monday as Mahomes’ go-to target.
Tampa Bay has also struggled to defend tight ends recently, allowing Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts to both score multiple touchdowns in its last two games.
Kelce’s odds to score 2+ TDs (+650) are worth considering, but taking him to find the end zone at even-money odds is absolutely worth it.
Bucs vs. Chiefs Best Bets Summary
- Moneyline: Chiefs (-410). These odds are best suited as a parlay leg, but we can’t reasonably predict KC to lose at home on Monday night.
- Spread: Buccaneers +9 (-110). The Bucs may be short-handed, but nine points is a lot to lay against one of the league’s best offenses. The Chiefs should win, but probably not by two scores.
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-108). Tampa Bay’s last five games have all gone well over this total, so bet on that streak to continue tonight.
- Baker Mayfield Over 236.5 Passing Yards (-120). Mayfield is second in the NFL in passing yards and has cleared this prop in three straight games. He should do so again in what will likely be a pass-heavy script.
- Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+100). Kelce scored last week and could find the end zone again versus a Buccaneers defense that’s allowed four receiving TDs to tight ends over the last two weeks.
