Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons
- When: Sunday, Oct. 8 (Week 5)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Texans +102, Falcons -122
- Spread: Texans +1.5 (-110), Falcons -1.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 41.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans travel to Atlanta for a non-conference showdown with the Falcons this weekend. Can Stroud help Houston match its win total (three) from last year in just the fifth week of the 2023 NFL season?
The Texans owe much of their early success to Stroud. They took him with the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, which looks to be a great decision so far.
Stroud has played fantastic football in his first four games, ranking fourth in passing yards and 10th in passing touchdowns. Further, he’s thrown the third-most passes in the NFL but still hasn’t recorded an interception.
Meanwhile, Atlanta started the season by securing two home wins against the Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers but hasn’t won since, failing to put up double-digit points against the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars.
On the other side, Desmond Ridder has struggled mightily for the Falcons. He has the lowest passing grade (per Pro Football Focus) of any player who has thrown the ball at least 40 times. Further, his run grade (also per PFF) is fourth-worst amongst quarterbacks who have played in all four games this season. He has also been sacked the fourth-most times in the NFL.
Atlanta’s defense can only carry the team so far, and at some point Ridder will have to step up. Is this the week it finally happens?
Moneyline
The Falcons enter Sunday’s game as slight home favorites (moneyline odds of -122) against Houston (+102).
Atlanta is 2-2, but its quarterback play is deeply concerning. Ridder has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season, forcing the defense to dig him out of some deep holes.
The Falcons had solid team performances in their first two games, but their past two have been rough. They scored just 13 points in Weeks 3 and 4 combined while giving up 43 points to their opponents.
Expect Atlanta to continue struggling with Ridder under center. The Texans have destroyed their last two opponents and are a good bet to win here at plus-odds.
Point Spread
Despite coming off back-to-back losses, the Falcons are still favored slightly on the spread at home by 1.5 points.
With both teams trending in opposite directions, Houston is the preferred play here. The Texans are coming off two straight wins and appear to be gaining steam, whereas Atlanta is falling back to earth.
The Falcons’ defense does many things well, but their offense has performed so poorly that it’s best to avoid backing them in this spot against a hot opponent.
Over/Under
The Over/Under for this bout stands at 41.5 points.
Houston has a 2-2 “Over” record against this line, while Atlanta is merely 1-3. As noted, the Falcons’ offense has completely gone off the rails lately and hasn’t cracked double-digit points in back-to-back games.
Defensively, however, Atlanta has had moments, particularly in its secondary. The Falcons rank fifth in opponent passing yards per game, ninth in opponent completion percentage and have the sixth-highest overall defensive grade from PFF. They should be able to limit the Texans’ offensive output, especially considering that Houston hardly relies on the run.
The only defense the Texans have faced with a higher overall defensive grade from PFF was the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1, and they only scored nine points in that game.
Even though the point total here is a bit lower than most games, it makes complete sense. This should not be a high-scoring affair, making the Under a viable play.
Player Prop
Stroud’s passing touchdown player prop line is at 1.5 for this game with the Over at -105 odds. Stroud has thrown two touchdowns in three consecutive games, and the volume is the most promising aspect of this bet.
Despite being a rookie, Stroud ranks third in the NFL in passing attempts per game. Houston’s trio of Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Robert Woods has provided enough support for Stroud to consistently march the offense down the field.
The Texans also understand that their run game is among the worst in the NFL. They rank 26th in rushing yards per game (87.3) and 30th in rushing yards per attempt (3.1). Therefore, expect Houston to air it out and avoid running the ball as much as possible.
Atlanta’s defense has been pretty solid through the first quarter of the 2023 NFL regular season, but the one area it has struggled has been in the pass rush. The Falcons rank 30th in sacks per game and 26th in PFF’s pass rush grade.
Houston’s offensive line is nothing special, but Stroud should still have time to sit in the pocket, make reads and find his teammates in the end zone. Look for him to notch multiple touchdown passes for the fourth straight game.
Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
