Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
- When: Sunday, Sept. 24 (Week 3)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where: TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, FL)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Texans +320, Jaguars -410
- Spread: Texans +8.5 (-108), Jaguars -8.5 (-112)
- Total: Over/Under 44 (-112/-108)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars are the team to beat in the AFC South. Duval County’s 1-1 squad stays home for the second week in a row as they take on their second divisional rival of the year, the 0-2 Houston Texans.
AFC South rivalry games have been consistently competitive over the years, no matter where any of the teams rank. This one has the potential to follow suit, as the Jaguars historically tend to split wins in these showdowns unless they’re facing the Tennessee Titans.
Houston seeks its first win of the 2023 NFL schedule in Jacksonville. It is a massive long shot to win the Super Bowl and is tied for the longest futures odds in the league at +40000. Jacksonville is on the rise in its second year under head coach Doug Pederson, getting +2500 odds to become the next NFL champions.
Moneyline
Despite any resistance the Texans may offer, the Jaguars are a playable choice as a -410 moneyline favorite in this game.
Houston is still rebuilding and won’t be ready to contend anytime soon. The Texans feature a new head coach in DeMeco Ryans and a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud, which is a tough combination when you’re trying to win football games.
Jacksonville was in a similar spot in 2021 with Lawrence and Urban Meyer, who was quickly fired and replaced by Pederson. The former Super Bowl-winning coach immediately turned things around, leading the Jags to a division title and a playoff spot in his first year at the helm.
Jacksonville has surrounded Lawrence with quality weapons like Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Travis Etienne, building an explosive offense that Houston simply can’t match.
This is one of those games that comes down to the Jaguars having more overall talent.
Point Spread
An 8.5-point spread feels large even for a game that’s essentially a lock, but betting on Jacksonville to cover is still the move here.
The Texans’ defense isn’t very good, allowing 25 and 31 points in their first two games against the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts. That makes this a perfect spot for the Jaguars to bounce back after managing just nine points against the Kansas City Chiefs last weekend. Houston will get scored on and have to play from behind, which is expected to be a normal challenge for Stroud this season.
If there’s one big concern for Jacksonville, it’s that the team still struggles in the red zone. That was on display last week against the Chiefs as the Jaguars could not score a touchdown, settling for three field goals. Luckily for them, the Texans are currently 29th in red zone defense.
Over/Under
Given Jacksonville’s red zone issues and Houston’s overall scoring problems, taking Under 44 points is the better option on the total.
The Texans managed to break 20 points last week against Indianapolis, but the Colts’ defense hasn’t shown as much promise and cohesion as Pederson’s unit. The Jaguars will be a much tougher test for them after holding Patrick Mahomes and co. to 17 points last week.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville is still finding its rhythm on offense and failed to score a touchdown last week. With Lawrence off to a quiet start, the Jaguars may lean on Etienne and the run game here, which will bleed the clock and slow down the game.
Player Prop
Two prop bets that stand out here are Etienne scoring a first-half touchdown at +165 and Ridley scoring an anytime touchdown at +115.
Ridley’s Jacksonville debut was fruitful; he brought in eight of his 11 targets for 101 yards and a score. The Chiefs held him to a lowly 32 yards on two catches in Week 2, but the targets were still there as Lawrence went to him eight times. The former Atlanta Falcon will almost certainly rebound with a better performance this week, and a single score shouldn’t be hard to come by.
Etienne will be the workhorse of the game for the Jaguars and will find himself leaned on in the red zone after last week’s woes. Initially a bit banged up to start the week, Etienne will enter the game with no injury designation, which will dissolve any worries for the team’s run game. Look for Jacksonville to feed him early and often as it looks to establish the run, resulting in an early score for the lead back.
Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images
