Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction, Odds, Spread, Picks & Best Bets NFL Week 11 MNF

While the Cowboys are in shambles on both sides of the ball, their defense has really struggled as of late, as evidenced by them having the second-worst mark in points-allowed per game (28.8). That number balloons up to 38.25 per home game, since Dallas has given up at least 28 points in every game at AT&T Stadium this season – and five straight dating back to its 48-32 loss to the Packers in the playoffs last season.

So this is a valuable get-right spot for a Texans team that’s 2-3 on the road after suffering a blowout loss to the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium and an inexplicable Halloween night defeat to the Jets. Houston’s defense has given up 17 touchdowns in four road games and just 10 in its five home games.

Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud has looked lost without star wideouts Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, but Collins is expected to return this week after losing five games to a hamstring injury.

It has been tough for Dallas to slow teams at home, but the Cowboys have also struggled to score over their past eight games. Dallas is 23rd in points per game (19.7) and has averaged just 18 points per game in the past eight, while failing to surpass 25 points in any game in that span.

Plus, backup quarterback Cooper Rush is being thrown into an impossible situation since Dallas has no semblance of a run game. The Cowboys are last in rushing attempts (197), tied for 31st in yards per carry (3.8) and 31st in rushing-yards per game (83.7).

That makes Houston a nightmare matchup for Dallas, since the Texans are third in yards-against per game (288) and fourth in passing-yards against per game (174.7).

This should be a blowout. Back Houston on the moneyline, especially as a parlay leg.

The Texans have only covered -7 in one game this season: their 41-21 win over the Patriots on Oct. 13. But the Cowboys are at the same level as the lowly Patriots at the moment, especially considering the way they’ve played at home.

Plus, the wolves are out for Dallas coach Mike McCarthy after defensive standout Micah Parsons and others questioned their coach’s effort in the span. McCarthy may be coaching for his job this week.

But Houston should be chasing style points, since Stroud will have his No. 1 receiver back against Dallas’ 17th-ranked pass defense. Stroud already has more interceptions this season (6) than he had all of last season (5), and he has completed just 53.7% of his passes this season.

But if Stroud again struggles, he can just hand the ball to Joe Mixon, who is third in the league in yards per game (93.6) against Dallas’ 31st-ranked run defense.

This could very well end up being a game where Houston controls the clock and wears out the Dallas defense. But even if it does not, Texans -7 has to be the play. In fact, we’d trust them to cover as high as -10.

The Texans and Cowboys are in the bottom-half of the league in points-against per game, but the Cowboys offense has only put up 13.3 points per game at home and is only scoring 16.6 points per game over their past six.

Collins’ return may invigorate the Houston offense, but the Texans have not been scoring much either. Houston was shut out in the second half against the Lions, and it is only putting up 20.25 points per game in its past four games.

With Rush leading the offense, Dallas is unlikely to put up much against Houston’s attackable defense. Plus, the Texans are tied for fourth in takeaways (18) with the Lions and have the sixth-best turnover margin in football (plus-7).

Rush and the Cowboys turned the ball over five times against the Eagles. Given the potential for this to be lopsided, and for Dallas to have no answer for the Houston defense, we recommend the Under.

Joe Mixon Over 86.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Mixon disappointed bettors and fantasy managers last Sunday night but he’s 5-2 against this number with five 100-plus-yard performances this season. With Houston struggling in the passing game, we are expecting a high volume of carries from Mixon.

Plus, Mixon should cook against Dallas’ hapless run defense. The Cowboys have surrendered 100-plus rushing yards in six of their nine games, and opponents have topped 180 yards on the ground five times – including all four home games.

If Houston tops even 150 rushing yards Mixon will be in line to go for about 60 percent of that total, since he is producing 79.3% of the Texans’ 119.4 average rushing yards per game.

If you are feeling daring, try Mixon to surpass 100 rushing yards on an alt total. But taking him to produce 87-plus is worth mashing.

Cooper Rush Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+135)

Rush has played in three Dallas home games and has yet to throw a touchdown pass. At some point that trend will change, and it could be against Houston, since it is allowing three passing TDs per game in road games.

But the Cowboys have only three passing TDs in four home games this season and zero in their past two. Dallas gives no illusion of balance offensively, which should open the door for the Texans’ ferocious pass rush to get after Rush.

Rush is far less agile than Prescott, and Dallas could have a quicker hook on the backup QB too if it wants to see what Trey Lance can do. Lance closed Dallas’ game against Philadelphia and could be in line for a bigger role this weekend if Rush struggles again.

This bet will be active as long as Rush plays, and given the plus-money payout, it is worth sprinkling a small amount in the event Rush struggles again.

• Moneyline: Texans (-310). The Texans are scuffling and may be without reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. again. But they should easily go into Dallas and leave with a win.
• Spread: Texans -7 (-112). Seven is a lot to lay on a team that has struggled as badly as Houston has away from home. But it would be impossible to bet the Cowboys based on how they have played at AT&T Stadium this year.
• Over/Under: Under 42 (-112). It has taken the Cowboys four games to surpass 50 total points in home games this season, and they have scored 15 in their past two games at Jerry World combined. Houston could put up 30-plus points and the Over still may not hit.
• Joe Mixon Over 86.5 Rushing Yards (-115). This is a high bar to clear, but Mixon has five games of 100-plus yards, and the Cowboys have hemorrhaged rushing yards all season.
• Cooper Rush Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+135). Rush, like his coach, is on thin ice, since Lance finished the Philly game. Even if Rush plays the whole game, he has not thrown a passing TD this year in a home game this year.

Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images.