Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 5 (Week 9)
- Time: 1 p.m ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Falcons -192, Vikings +160
- Spread: Falcons -3.5 (-112), Vikings +3.5 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 37.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
A pair of 4-4 teams will collide in Week 9 of the 2023 NFL schedule when the Minnesota Vikings pay a visit to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.
The Vikings are riding a three-game winning streak, but success will be tough to come by following quarterback Kirk Cousins’ season-ending Achilles tear. The Falcons, on the other hand, return home following last week’s 28-23 loss to the Tennessee Titans.
While both teams are heading in opposite directions based on recent results, the latest NFL futures odds don’t bode well for either side’s outlook. The Falcons currently own the 16th-best Super Bowl odds (70/1), while the Vikings are even bigger long shots at 150/1 (T-20th).
Moneyline
While the Vikings are the side winning games recently, the Falcons enter this matchup as the clear moneyline favorites. Even though Atlanta hasn’t been the most consistent team this season, they’re a better bet to snag the outright win.
For starters, there isn’t much to like about Minnesota’s offense without Cousins. While the Vikings did acquire QB Joshua Dobbs from the Arizona Cardinals at the trade deadline, he likely won’t start until next week, meaning rookie Jaren Hall is in line for his first career start.
Hall, drafted 164th overall in April, didn’t impress much during the preseason. He only completed 54.2% of his passes for 264 yards and a touchdown with an interception, too, and he ended the exhibition slate with a 68.4 passer rating.
The Falcons defense hasn’t been perfect, but it has defended the pass well, allowing a 62.4% completion rate (10th) and 194.6 passing yards per outing (eighth).
That’s without mentioning how Atlanta is 3-1 with a plus-2.3 average scoring margin at home in 2023. Even though Minnesota is also 3-1 on the road, it’s worth noting that those three victories came against three of the worst teams in the NFL (Packers, Bears and Panthers). Don’t expect a repeat performance from the Vikings given their shaky QB situation.
Point Spread
Covering the spread has been challenging for both teams this season, as Atlanta is 2-6 against the spread this year while Minnesota is slightly better at 4-3-1 ATS.
If it wasn’t for Cousins’ injury, the Vikings would be a good pick here with a 4-1 ATS record in their last five games. However, they’re worse off without their No. 1 QB. After all, Minnesota is 0-2 with a minus-14.5 average scoring margin in two games without Cousins since 2018.
It’s not like the Falcons’ spread outlook is any better. Atlanta has only covered the spread once in its seven previous outings while owning a 1-3 ATS record at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. It’s also worth pointing out that the Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Vikings.
Even though it’s tough to have faith in either side covering, the Vikings are the more reliable pick to keep it close. The Falcons haven’t won a game by five-plus points since Week 1, picking up their last three victories by a combined six points.
Over/Under
This collision is shaping up to be a low-scoring affair, carrying a projected Over/Under of just 37.5 points. Even with that total being among the lowest of the week, we like the Under in this spot.
First, these Week 9 opponents aren’t strangers to quiet offensive outputs. The Under is a combined 13-3 (81.3%) in Falcons and Vikings games this season, which includes a 3-1 record to the Under for Atlanta at home and Minnesota on the road.
Furthermore, the Falcons and Vikings rank near the bottom of the league in red-zone scoring efficiency.
Both teams are also rolling with backup QBs this week. In addition to Hall replacing the injured Cousins, Atlanta announced on Wednesday that Desmond Ridder has been benched in favor of Taylor Heinicke. A game between second-stringers isn’t a recipe for fireworks.
Throw in the fact that the Under is 7-2 in the last nine Vikings-Falcons matchups, and it’s unlikely we’ll see many points on the board come Sunday.
Player Prop
Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts’ play has been up and down this season, but he has a solid chance to get back on track against the Vikings. It’s viable to back the third-year playmaker to score an anytime touchdown (+295) as a prop bet.
The Vikings haven’t done the best job at guarding TEs this season. They’ve allowed the 12th-most receptions to the position (40) while also surrendering three TDs (T-8th).
Heinickie is also a better passer than Ridder, meaning Pitts will likely see higher-quality passes thrown his way. It helps that the 22-year-old was already averaging 6.8 targets over the last four games.
With Minnesota’s secondary looking as vulnerable as ever, Pitts is in a good position to hit paydirt this weekend.
Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images
