NFL Week 1 Odds & Lines: Denver Broncos Vs. Seattle Seahawks

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Betting Matchup Preview

Game Details

  • Who: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
  • When: Monday, Sept. 12 (Week 1)
  • Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Lumen Field (Seattle, Washington)

Betting Odds Summary (BetMGM Sportsbook)

  • Spread: Broncos -6.5 (-110), Seahawks +6.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Broncos -275, Seahawks +225
  • Total: Over 44.5 (-110), Under 44.5 (-110)

Note: Odds and lines are current at the time of writing and subject to change.


Russell Wilson’s Denver Broncos open their season against his former team in the Seattle Seahawks. This is sure to be an emotional ride for Wilson. But Denver’s new quarterback needs to stay focused. The Broncos have a talented roster with high expectations. 

Meanwhile, Seattle is working on a total rebuild. The Seahawks are arguably the worst team in the NFL. 

Denver is a 6.5-point betting favorite in this game. Will Wilson and the Broncos roll to an easy victory? 

There are plenty of different ways to bet on this game, and we’re going to recommend our best bets for this edition of Monday Night Football.

Spread, Moneyline, Total: Broncos vs. Seahawks 

Pete Carroll is an enigma. His emphasis on establishing the run was met with criticism by fans who wanted him to let Wilson air the football out rather than hand it off. But the answer lies in the middle. 

Seattle finished first in the league in rush expected points added per play last year, per RBSDM, and third in yards per carry. However, the Seahawks also ranked 13th in rush Success Rate (a statistic that shows what percentage of the time you get the necessary yardage to move the chains) and 30th in third-down yards to go (7.4). 

Wilson led the NFL in average depth of target (10.2) and was top-10 in 20-plus yard completions (29), but he also struggled to convert on third down without a reliable slot receiver or tight end. 

The result was a flawed offensive attack that produced big plays but not enough consistent ones. Too many of Seattle’s drives ended in three-and-outs. 

That brings us to Wilson. Wilson posted the lowest Pro Football Focus passing grade of his career last season. He had the lowest quarterback rating of his career and the lowest completion percentage since 2017. 

Wilson’s poor performance was likely the result of a finger injury that caused him to miss games for the first time in his career. However, it’s fair to ask if the 33-year-old Wilson is still in his prime. Denver will be a Super Bowl contender if he is. 

The Broncos have surrounded Wilson with the right pieces, and new head coach Nathaniel Hackett is fixated on building the offense around Wilson. The weapons are immense, and Hackett’s run-pass option offensive scheme will work wonders with Wilson under center. 

Denver’s defense is a shell of itself, however. Bradley Chubb and Patrick Surtain are the stars, but both have significant flaws. The Broncos finished 16th in both expected points added per play allowed and Success Rate allowed. 

Seattle’s defense was horrendous last season, but it also has quickly rebuilt the second level with young, promising players. The secondary tandem of Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams is dangerous, and the front seven combination of Jordyn Brooks and Cody Barton gives the Seahawks’ defense a high ceiling. 

Carroll’s commitment to the run alongside a young, promising defense makes Seattle worth betting as underdogs. If the Seahawks have more success in short-yardage run situations, they’ll win the time-of-possession battle and slow down the pace of the game. 

We’re not sold on Denver yet, and a Week 1 game in Seattle is a tough situation to cover a big spread. We’re expecting a low-scoring game with a close final score, so we’re taking the points with the Seahawks.

Our Pick: Seattle Seahawks +6.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Player Prop Bets: Broncos vs. Seahawks

Geno Smith Under 208.5 Pass Yards (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Coach Carroll wants to run the ball and lean on the defense to win.

That does not bode well for Geno Smith, however, who is starting just his sixth game in the last seven seasons. Smith failed to reach 209 passing yards in three of those five starts. 

To be fair, Wilson often couldn’t reach his passing total with Carroll, either. Wilson fell short of his passing yards prop in 10 of his 14 games last season. 

Meanwhile, Denver’s defense held 11 of the 17 opposing quarterbacks under their passing yards total. 

Our Same-Game Parlay

Our Broncos vs. Seahawks Same-Game Parlay (+426 at FanDuel)

  • Seahawks +6.5 (-110)
  • Under 44.5 (-110)
  • Rashaad Penny Over 65.5 Rush Yards (-114)

We expect the Seahawks to commit to the run and grind this game to a halt, which will help them cover and keep the total points down. Underdogs and unders tend to be correlated. 

Rashaad Penny has become the lead back in Seattle. Penny dominated down the stretch in 2021, posting at least 135 rush yards in four of the final five weeks. 

If the game goes how we expect, Penny will get plenty of rushing attempts in a low-scoring, tight game. We can cash in big on that with this same-game parlay, which will pay out a nice $426 profit if it cashes.

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