Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
- When: Sunday, September 11 (Week 1)
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Betting Odds Summary (DraftKings)
- Spread: Raiders +3.5 (-110), Chargers -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Raiders +150, Chargers -175
- Total: Over 52.5 (-110), Under 52.5 (-110)
Note: Odds and lines are current at the time of writing and subject to change.
Quarterback Derek Carr returns to the Las Vegas Raiders underneath new leadership and with a new partner. Longtime New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will try his second head coaching stint, while former Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams reunites with his one-time Fresno State teammate.
Las Vegas faces a tough Week 1 divisional matchup, although every divisional matchup is tough in the AFC West.
The Los Angeles Chargers have built a particularly talented roster. They are also getting a lot of love in the betting markets, which could make them slightly overvalued moving forward.
But does that mean the Raiders are an automatic pick here?
There are plenty of different ways to bet on this game, and we’re going to discuss the best ones.
Spread, Moneyline, Total: Las Vegas Raiders Vs. Los Angeles Chargers
We aren’t sold on this version of the Raiders. Las Vegas made splashy offseason moves, but a good football team is built from the inside, and this offensive line is shaky. The Raiders finished 29th in Pro Football Focus’ run block grades and 17th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards metric last year.
However, the defensive line has Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. Crosby led the league in hurries last year and finished second in pressures, while Jones posted double-digit sacks for the seventh time in his career.
I am not high on the secondary, however, especially after Casey Hayward left for the Atlanta Falcons. Hayward is replaced by the 31-year-old Duron Harmon, who allowed 9.2 yards per pass last season (57th among safeties).
Plus, what are we supposed to expect from McDaniels? New England’s offenses were inconsistent even before Tom Brady left, and he was a disaster in Denver as head coach of the Broncos. Adams will provide explosiveness, but will that be enough?
The Chargers’ roster, on the other hand, has no weaknesses. The pickup of J.C. Jackson is huge as a legit No. 1 cornerback and could lead to increased production from Derwin James in the free safety role. Plus, outside linebackers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa will terrorize opposing quarterbacks.
We think the Carr-McDaniels-Adams trio will run into a brick wall against Los Angeles, and that Las Vegas’ weaknesses will quickly become apparent against one of the most complete rosters in football.
Our Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 (-110)
Player Prop Bets: Las Vegas Raiders Vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Derek Carr Under 25.5 Completions (-125) at DraftKings Sportsbook
We think Carr is overvalued. He’s getting a lot of love in the betting markets because of his new weapons, but he still hasn’t proved it on the field.
This prop line is ludicrous. Carr managed 26 completions in just eight of his 18 starts last season, landing on exactly 26 twice. Meanwhile, the Chargers kept 11 of the 17 quarterbacks they faced in 2021 under this completions total, including Carr twice.
Carr completed just 41 passes combined in his two games against the Chargers last year, failing to eclipse 21 either time despite one of the games going to overtime. Los Angeles also added an elite cornerback in the offseason.
Most projections have Carr finishing with 22-to-24 completions. That’s an edge we’re willing to bet.
Our Same-Game Parlay
Our Raiders vs Chargers same-game parlay (+565 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline (-176)
- Justin Herbert Over 284.5 Passing Yards (-114)
- Derek Carr Under 268.5 Passing Yards (-114)
When betting on a same-game parlay, we are trying to imagine the most likely game script. We already believe that the Chargers will win while Carr struggles to compile completions.
Therefore, we’re betting that Herbert dominates in his home opener while the Raiders struggle in the passing game. That should result in an easy victory for Los Angeles.
Herbert is already a superstar after just two seasons in the NFL. He also threw for at least 300 yards nine times last season, including an impressive 383-yard performance against Las Vegas during the season finale.
Carr, on the other hand, hit the under on his prop in six straight games to end the regular season. He struggled in particular against the Chargers, falling short of 200 passing yards both times.
Moreover, I’m low on Las Vegas’ secondary while also being high on LA’s secondary.
