Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions
- When: Sunday, September 11 (Week 1)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Ford Field (Detroit, Michigan)
Betting Odds Summary (DraftKings)
- Spread: Eagles -4.5 (-110), Lions +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Eagles -205, Lions +175
- Total: Over 48.5 (-110), Under 48.5 (-110)
Note: Odds and lines are current at the time of writing and subject to change.
The Detroit Lions enter 2022 as the NFL’s darling. They earned the offseason Hard Knocks appearance along with the nation’s love. Money has poured in on the Lions since.
However, the Philadelphia Eagles are getting plenty of love, too. Philadelphia opened close to +300 to win the NFC East but is now favored to win the division at many books thanks to the Dallas Cowboys’ injuries.
So, which overvalued team should we bet on?
Perhaps neither. There are many different ways to bet on this NFL game, and we’re here to give you the best options.
Spread, Moneyline, Total: Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Detroit Lions
The Eagles have the perfect team. They have the best offensive line in the NFL and a rushing game that led the league in success rate last year. They have elite talent at cornerback in Darius Slay. They’ll pressure the quarterback with Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham and Javon Hargrave. They also added A.J. Brown to pair with their other established weapons on offense.
Philadelphia’s only question mark is the quarterback. Jalen Hurts had some terrific games last season and took a step forward as a passer, but his overall passing numbers remained underwhelming. He finished with only 7.3 yards per attempt and tossed just 16 touchdowns compared to 18 turnover-worthy plays per Pro Football Focus.
The prevailing narrative of the 2021 Eagles is that once they established the run, they won games. That’s true, as their rushing metrics spiked during their postseason push. But they also faced a much-easier second-half schedule and Hurts failed to progress as hoped, resulting in a first-round playoff exit against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Lions are an interesting challenge for Hurts. Under fiery head coach Dan Campbell, Detroit has laid the foundation of a good team by building from within.
Aidan Hutchison, Josh Paschal and Charles Harris are every-down edge defenders that should produce on both rushing and passing downs. If the Lions have a strength on defense, it’s up front with these high-motor players.
Detroit remains extremely weak in the secondary, however, as there is zero defensive back talent. Will Harris led the secondary in snaps (1,012) and finished bottom-10 among safeties in both target rate and coverage success rate, per Football Outsiders. Not surprisingly, the Lions ranked 30th in Passing Expected Points Added per play allowed last season, per RBSDM.
Detroit has enough talent up front to force Philadelphia into passing downs (if only sometimes). Hurts will then have his chance to exploit Detroit’s vulnerable secondary with his new weapons. We’re going to learn a lot about Hurts in this game, but we’re not willing to bet on him just yet. Instead, we’d rather fade him and, in our opinion, an overvalued Eagles defense.
Philadelphia’s two best defensive linemen are 31-year-old Fletcher Cox and 34-year-old Brandon Graham, with Graham recovering from an Achilles injury. First-round pick Jordan Davis is not yet ready to play against the pass. Philadelphia picked up James Bradberry to pair with Slay at cornerback, but Bradberry was PFF’s 105th-rated cornerback in 2021.
The Lions have beefed up on the offensive line between Frank Ragnow, Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell. D’Andre Swift is a real weapon out of the backfield for Detroit, and Amon-Ra St. Brown broke out near the end of 2021. This offense will move the ball despite having Jared Goff under center.
Accordingly, we’re betting on the Lions as home underdogs. Detroit covered 11 of 17 games as an underdog in 2021 and will only be better this season.
Our Pick: Detroit Lions +4.5 (-110)
Player Prop Bets: Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Detroit Lions
D’Andre Swift Over 11.5 Rush Attempts (+105) at DraftKings Sportsbook
It’s been a two-running back approach in Detroit the last few seasons with Jamaal Williams and Swift splitting carries. But as Williams ages and Swift enters his prime, we believe Campbell is going to lean heavier on Swift.
Swift saw his usage increase from 8.8 attempts per game as a rookie in 2020 to 11.6 attempts per game in 2021. It’s also worth noting that Swift had more rush attempts than Williams in six of the nine games they played together last year.
Swift eclipsed this number in eight of his first 10 games last season, including his Week 8 matchup against the Eagles (12).
The weakness of Philadelphia’s defense is in the front seven. The Eagles drafted Georgia defensive lineman Jordan Davis in the first round, and he will be a force in the run game soon enough. But I expect the Eagles to bring him along slowly and don’t foresee him having a major impact just yet.
Projection systems have Swift finishing with closer to 13 carries, making this a prop worth betting.
Our Same-Game Parlay
Our Eagles vs Lions same-game parlay has +748 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Over 48.5 Total Points (-106)
- Jalen Hurts Over 46.5 Rush Yards (-114)
- AJ Brown Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Philadelphia Eagles Over 13.5 First-Half Points (-110)
We believe this game has shootout potential.
Philadelphia could struggle to put pressure on Goff, especially with Detroit’s excellent offensive line. The whole unit should take a big step forward this season.
However, the real shootout potential comes from the Eagles. The Lions’ secondary is horrendous and should allow Brown to put up big numbers in his Eagles debut. Brown is now the consensus No. 1 wide receiver in Philadelphia, and Detroit finished 2021 with the second-worst DVOA allowed to top wideouts, per Football Outsiders.
Additionally, the Lions will likely struggle with Hurts’ dual-threat ability. Hurts cashed this rushing prop in nine of his first 12 games last year before a nagging ankle injury limited his rushing ability, including when he ran for 71 yards against Detroit in Week 8.
While we expect the Lions to cover, they are a second-half team. The Eagles should get out to a fast start, easily picking up two touchdowns before halftime.
