Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
- When: Monday, Nov. 28 (Week 12)
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
Betting Odds Summary
- Spread: Colts -2.5 (-115), Steelers +2.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Colts (-140), Steelers (+120)
- Total: 39 (Over -110, Under -110)
Note: Odds and lines come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current at the time of writing and subject to change.
The Week 12 slate that featured the Thanksgiving Day games comes to a close as the 3-7 Pittsburgh Steelers head out on the road to take on the 4-6-1 Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts are 1-1 with Jeff Saturday as interim head coach. Their only loss came in Week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles, 17-16.
The Steelers put up 30 in Week 11 but allowed 37 to the Cincinnati Bengals.
How do these teams stack up against one another? Let’s find out.
Spread, Moneyline, Total: Cowboys vs. Vikings
A few weeks back, it wasn’t easy to see the Colts being favored against anyone on the point spread. With Saturday as their head coach, their defense has shifted, especially their pass rush.
In the two Saturday-led games, the Colts generated 24 total pressures and seven sacks.
Their top cornerback, Stephon Gilmore, has yet to surrender a touchdown on the season and is holding receivers to just a 50% reception rate over the last two games.
As for the Steelers, they had excellent offensive output last week, but 20 of those 30 points came in the first half.
A big part of their offense, wide receiver George Pickens, will battle with Gilmore on what may be a tough day for the rookie.
The Steelers still have receiver Diontae Johnson, tight end Pat Freiermuth and running back Najee Harris. Harris is coming off a two-touchdown day, but the Colts’ defensive front has been playing great, holding teams to just 96 rushing yards over their last three games.
The Colts will want to rely on running back Jonathan Taylor here. His talent may be enough to overcome the hurdle, but that hurdle is a Steelers defense allowing less than 68 rushing yards over the past three games.
If Taylor cannot get going, the Colts need to depend on veteran quarterback Matt Ryan. He played atrociously to begin the year, but in his last two outings, Ryan has completed 44 of 60 passes and has taken great care of the ball.
The Steelers allow over 270 passing yards per game, and while Ryan may not be what he once was, he has the weapons to take care of business here.
Take the Colts are short home favorites. Alternatively, taking them on the moneyline is also a good wager.
Player Prop Bets: Colts vs. Steelers
With prop bets, you’ll have the luxury of zeroing in on a single player and evaluating their projected production. This can be great for a running back against a bad run defense or a receiver having a favorable cornerback matchup.
Below is the best prop bet wager to make in this Monday Night Football clash.
- Matt Ryan Under 0.5 Interceptions (+100 at DraftKings)
It’s been a rough season for Ryan, including getting benched after Week 7. From Week 1 through then, Ryan had an interception in all but two games, and it looked like he was toward the end of his career.
However, with Saturday taking over as head coach, he got the starting job back. Since then, he’s completed 44 of 60 passes for 443 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions.
According to Pro Football Focus, he has just one turnover-worthy play in his previous two games.
The Steelers allow over 270 passing yards per game and have a cornerback duo in Cameron Sutton and Levi Wallace that have been OK this season but are beatable.
Ryan is playing a safe brand of football right now, relying on the running and short passing game—he’s only attempted 15 passes 10 yards or deeper.
Our Same-Game Parlay
With a same-game parlay, we can pair up multiple bets within this one Monday Night Football game.
Here, we’ve created a four-leg Same Game Parlay worth exploring if you feel comfortable wagering on this game. The odds are +850.
- Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (-115)
- Over 39.5 Total Points (-110)
- Matt Ryan Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-140)
- Diontae Johnson Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (-135)
We’ve discussed the Colts and the point spread, so let’s focus on the remaining three legs.
The total of 39.5 somewhat ties into the spread. This should be doable at less than 40 points, with two teams playing inside of a dome, one playing relatively well and the other showcasing some offensive output a week ago.
We’ve gone over why we think the Colts will score and the Steelers have some playmakers to utilize.
The Colts have Gilmore, but their other cornerback, Kenny Moore II, has been beatable this season. There’s something to be said about Harris in his last game, and we could see more production out of him, even in a not-so-good matchup.
Turning things over to Ryan’s passing yards, at 224.5, this is a line he should meet. He cleared this mark in Week 10 but had just 213 in Week 11.
The Steelers give up a plethora of passing yards every game. Their run defense has been stout—Ryan will need to do some throwing here, and 224.5 seems an excellent benchmark to reach, given our prediction for this game.
Johnson has always been a great receiver, but let’s face it—the stats aren’t there this year. He has yet to score a touchdown and only cleared 50 yards receiving once since Week 5.
Johnson is getting plenty of targets, averaging over seven per game this year, but the yardage totals aren’t there.
He’ll get some matchups with Moore, but when against Gilmore, it could be something that Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett avoids entirely.
