Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys
- When: Sunday, Dec. 4 (Week 13)
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
Betting Odds Summary
- Spread: Colts +10.5 (-110), Cowboys -10.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Colts (+400), Cowboys (-550)
- Total: Over/Under 44.5 (-110/-110)
Note: Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook are current at the time of writing and subject to change.
The Dallas Cowboys (8-3) go for their third win in a row when they take the field against a slumping Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1) for Week 13’s edition of Sunday Night Football.
Dallas still trails the white-hot Philadelphia Eagles for the top spot in the NFC East, but if anyone is going to catch Philly, it will be the Cowboys. A win against a struggling team here will also go a long way toward Dallas’ playoff aspirations.
Indianapolis, meanwhile, is in a midseason rebuild with interim head coach Jeff Saturday trying to right the ship. While the Colts are just 1-2 under Saturday, they are playing hard for him and have produced three straight one-possession games, covering the spread twice.
Indy has not been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet and still has something to play for. Despite having only four wins, the Colts are in second place in the AFC South behind the Tennessee Titans and should put up a fight in Dallas.
Spread, Moneyline, Total: Colts vs. Cowboys
The bookmakers are not giving the struggling Colts much chance on Sunday, with the Cowboys listed as massive 10.5-point betting favorites on the spread at BetMGM.
There is no denying that Dallas is the superior team, but 10.5 points is a lot of ground to cover in the NFL, especially in a primetime game where anything can happen.
Indianapolis isn’t setting the world on fire, but their record doesn’t tell the whole story either, especially since Saturday took over. Four of their losses have been by seven points or less, and their two defeats under Saturday have been by a combined eight points. They only lost by one point to the Eagles in Week 11 and nearly came back against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football earlier this week, so don’t count them out. Indy is also 4-2 against the spread as underdogs this year, while Dallas has yet to cover a double-digit spread.
Matt Ryan isn’t the savior on offense that the Colts had hoped for, but they still have superstar running back Jonathan Taylor at their disposal. Between Taylor and their phenomenal defense, we think Indy could cover.
On top of that, we can look at primetime NFL trends and see that underdogs are great bets in Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football. Heading into Week 13, underdogs are 15-9 against the spread on SNF and MNF.
The moneyline is tough to consider, with Dallas lacking any betting value at -550. There is always a chance for an upset, and Indianapolis would provide a healthy payday at +400 for any brave backers, but we do not recommend this course of action.
The total for the Colts vs. Cowboys is 44.5 points for this primetime matchup. As with underdogs, the under tends to hit in primetime games as the bookies and bettors overreact to the spotlight.
Indy has a stellar defense which has helped the under go 9-3 in their games this year. Meanwhile, Dallas has cashed the under 66.7% of the time at home.
Overall, the trends lean hard on this game going under the total.
Player Prop Bets: Colts vs. Cowboys
If you are searching for a single prop bet to make on the Colts vs. Cowboys, look no further than Indy’s running back, Jonathan Taylor. He is a solid bet to go over his rushing yards total of 75.5 (-120). It may not be the most profitable betting prop in the world, but the odds are more than fair, and the line is very beatable.
Taylor is not having the historic season he had in 2021, but he still ranks 10th in rushing yards with 779. He’s also started to heat up after a slow start, averaging 98.3 rushing yards per game over his last four contests and exceeding 75 rushing yards in all four of those games.
On the other side of the gridiron, Dallas has a feeble rushing defense that ranks 24th in the NFL with an average of 131.9 yards per game.
The Colts will need Taylor at his best, but even on an off day, he should still see enough volume to notch at least 76 rushing yards against a bottom-tier run defense.
Same-Game Parlay: Colts vs. Cowboys
Our same-game parlay for Colts vs. Cowboys consists of the following legs:
- Jonathan Taylor Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
- Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-140)
- 1H Game Total Under 21.5 Points (-105)
- Ezekiel Elliott Anytime TD Scorer (+110)
Our same-game parlay is starting with Taylor to go over his rushing total for all the reasons mentioned above. He’s the best player on Indianapolis, and we expect him to play like it on Sunday night.
Prescott has been at the center of Dallas’ recent resurgence thanks to four straight starts with multiple touchdown passes. The Colts have a strong defense, but so do the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants. Both teams succumbed to Prescott during his hot streak, which we expect to continue here at home.
Considering we are recommending the under for the whole game, we should also add the first-half under to our parlay. Indy is playing on the road on short rest, so expect the Colts to get off to a slow start offensively against Dallas’ talented defense.
Rounding out our action for this game is a play on Ezekiel Elliott, who we expect to score a touchdown. He’s found the end zone in four straight games, tallying a staggering six touchdowns during that span. The Cowboys have leaned on their run game this year, and we like Elliott’s chances to score again.
This parlay gives us +1137 odds, so a winning $100 wager would return $1,137 in profits, along with your original stake.
