Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos
- When: Sunday, Sept. 25 (Week 3)
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver, CO)
Betting Odds Summary
- Spread: 49ers -1.5 (-110), Broncos +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: 49ers (-120), Broncos (+100)
- Total: Over/Under 45 (-110/-110)
Note: Odds and lines from DraftKings are current at the time of writing and subject to change based on player personnel changes and how the betting public reacts to prices offered.
Heading into their Week 3 matchup, the lead storyline for the San Francisco 49ers is quarterback Trey Lance’s season-ending ankle injury. In his place, the 49ers will start veteran signal-caller Jimmy Garoppolo, who was a prime candidate to get traded or cut over the offseason given the emergence of Lance.
The Denver Broncos will look to build off a home win against the Houston Texans last week and hope to get their offense going after back-to-back games with just 16 points.
With this game, there are multiple reasonable bets to make and we’ll discuss them below.
Spread, Moneyline, Total: Broncos vs. 49ers
As opposed to the moneyline—where we pick the outright winner—we’ll look to the point spread. This indicates that DraftKings views the 49ers as 1.5 points better than the Broncos, so San Francisco needs to win by at least two points to cover the spread.
While it’s not always the best idea to go against a home underdog, Denver’s offense has left us with no choice after managing just 32 total points thus far. Sure, an offense led by Russell Wilson at quarterback will eventually get going, but this game against a tough 49ers defense doesn’t seem the best time to do so.
Outside of the quarterback play, the matchup to look for in this game is the edge rushers of each team against the opposing offensive tackles. The Broncos will rush Randy Gregory and Bradley Chubb off the edge. Chubb took a bit of a step back in Week 2, but he was incredible in Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks. They’ll match up with San Francisco’s Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey.
Looking at the 49ers, they have Nick Bosa–one of the best pass rushers in the league since becoming a pro–and Samson Ebukam. They’ll do battle with Cameron Fleming and Garett Bolles.
The Broncos have great playmakers in wide receiver Courtland Sutton and running back Javonte Williams, but it’ll be tough for them to get loose against the 49ers’ stellar defense. As a unit, San Francisco is allowing the fewest yards per game and third-fewest points per game in the NFL thus far.
To be fair, Denver has a stingy defense as well, yielding the third-fewest points and third-fewest yards per game. However, the 49ers’ offense is unique thanks to wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who can harm an opposing defense in multiple ways. They’re also expected to get star tight end George Kittle back from a groin injury.
This could be a hard-fought battle, but in the end, San Francisco’s defense will prevail against an offense still finding its footing, especially if Wilson’s aggressive passing results in at least one turnover.
Player Prop Bets: Broncos vs. 49ers
With single-player prop bets, we’re looking at how individual players will perform throughout a game. We discussed how solid these defenses have been this year, so offense could come at a premium in this one.
Here, we have two player props on the Broncos’ side that we’re interested in wagering on.
- Russell Wilson Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-155) at BetMGM
While the juice on this bet leaves little to be desired at -155, this is still an excellent prop bet to target. It may not have plus odds, but it still has a great chance of cashing.
Wilson has two touchdown passes on the year, passing for one in each game despite facing a pair of underwhelming defenses. Now he’ll go up against one of the best secondaries in the NFL that has yielded just two passing touchdowns total so far.
If there were a prop for Wilson under 0.5 touchdowns, we’d take that as well. It will be a tough outing for Denver’s offense.
- Javonte Williams Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-113) at Caesars
While the Broncos’ offense has had trouble getting going this year, one of the bright spots has been second-year running back Javonte Williams. Williams has rushed for 118 yards on 22 carries thus far, averaging an impressive 5.4 yards per carry.
Even so, he’s still splitting backfield duties with Melvin Gordon III, who’s carried virtually the same workload with 22 carries and 105 rushing yards. That will make racking up yards difficult for Williams, especially against a 49ers defense that’s allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in the NFL.
Our Same-Game Parlay
When approaching a same-game parlay, you should have a different outlook than a standard parlay. While the bet type is the same—having multiple contests (also known as legs) on one ticket—you can deploy a different strategy here as you focus on one game.
Thus, you can build a parlay that correlates well together, such as this four-leg same-game parlay with +490 odds at Caesars Sportsbook.
To arrive at the +490, parlay odds get calculated by considering multiple factors of a bet, such as individual lines and level of risk. However, there’s far more to it than that.
- San Francisco 49ers -1.5 (-110)
- Under 44.5 Total Points (-110)
- Russell Wilson Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-148)
- Javonte Williams Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
We’ll combine the three bets mentioned above while also adding the Under. The analysis thus far has pointed to two rock-solid defenses, which should remain valid here. The Under also correlates with less offensive production from Wilson and Williams, which will make it difficult for the Broncos to prevail.
Get ready for a fight in the trenches as the 49ers pull this one out, 23-20.
Note: Some of the bets may not be eligible for an SGP depending on the sportsbook you use.
