Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks
- When: Sunday, September 25 (Week 3)
- Time: 1:25 pm PT
- Where: Lumen Field (Seattle, WA)
Betting Odds Summary
- Spread: Seahawks -1 (-105), Falcons +1 (-115)
- Moneyline: Falcons (-110); Seahawks (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 42 (-110/-110)
Note: Odds and lines are current at the time of writing and subject to change.
Staying on the West Coast following a 31-27 loss at the Los Angeles Rams, the Atlanta Falcons now head into Seattle to take on the Seahawks and quarterback Geno Smith.
Neither of these teams is particularly good, but there are still some playable ways to bet on this game.
Total: Over 42 (-110): Seahawks vs. Falcons
At home, the Seahawks are a one-point favorite, but we’ll lean on the total here of 42 (-110 betting odds at DraftKings).
With a totals wager, the goal here is to project the combined point total of both teams.
As mentioned, neither team has a strong squad, but there are great playmakers on both offenses.
For the Falcons, quarterback Marcus Mariota has 10 designed runs this year, according to Pro Football Focus.
However, including scrambles, he has 18 total carries. He’s a player who can secure a rushing touchdown every game under the right circumstances.
For pass-catching weapons, Mariota has wide receiver Drake London, tight end Kyle Pitts and receiver/running back Cordarrelle Patterson.
The Falcons enter Week 3 averaging over 25 points per game and, even going into Seattle, the Seahawks defense doesn’t exactly have any big-time coverage players.
None of the Seahawks cornerbacks—Coby Bryant, Michael Jackson or Tariq Woolen—will create problems for the Falcons, who could be in prime position to repeat their scoring success.
The Seahawks also have two excellent receivers in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Falcons cornerbacks Casey Hayward Jr. and A.J. Terrell may be slightly better than the Seahawks corners, but they’re still nothing to shy away from.
Even with a total at 42, this game has the makings of a small shootout, pending the quarterback play.
It may still be Marcus Mariota and Geno Smith, but their weapons should help them shine through.
Player Prop Bets: Seahawks vs. Falcons
If you’ve played fantasy football, you’ll understand the importance of how an individual player performs. With player betting props, it’s pretty much the same thing—you’re anticipating the statistical output of a single player.
Here, we have two player props from the Seahawks vs. Falcons game to consider.
- Falcons QB Marcus Mariota Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+165 on DraftKings)
Regarding player props, we like to look for “+” or “plus” odds. These provide you with an opportunity to win more money while betting less.
For example, if you bet $100 on this market, you’d win $165 due to how the betting odds work.
We discussed in the game preview that the Seahawks coverage unit is nothing be weary of.
Beyond the cornerbacks, safeties Josh Jones and Quandre Diggs are also beatable.
According to PFF, Jones has allowed six catches on nine targets.
As for Pitts, he’ll match up against Seahawks linebacker Cody Barton, who has allowed a team-high 12 receptions for 137 yards and a touchdown—this is a spot Mariota could look to for scoring potential.
Mariota could score more on the ground. However, with weapons like London, Pitts, Patterson and even slot receiver Olamide Zaccheaus, he has multiple options to pass to against a soft Seahawks coverage unit.
- Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett Over 5.5 Receptions (+110 on DraftKings)
We’ve known Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett to be more of a deep-threat player. Throughout this career, he has an average depth of target of 13.1 yards, meaning quarterbacks have thrown the ball 13.1 yards downfield on average when targeting Lockett.
However, in 2022, with Smith at quarterback, that has changed. Seven of Lockett’s 14 targets have come on “short right” plays, averaging just 7.3 yards per reception.
This is important because, for the player Lockett has traditionally been, 5.5 receptions could be considered a lot.
With Smith, it seems more likely than ever. In Week 1, he had three receptions but rebounded in Week 2 with nine.
Going up against Hayward Jr. and Terrell, Lockett will continue to be a top target for Smith. This year, Lockett leads the team in targets, receptions and yards.
With +110 odds, this is a reasonable bet to make.
Possible Same-Game Parlay
A same-game parlay is structured the same way as a standard parlay. The only difference is you’re betting on multiple events within one game on a bet slip as opposed to other, numerous games.
When creating a parlay within the same game, the best approach is to find correlating results. For example, if you think a team will score a lot of points, perhaps one of the contests—also known as “legs”—of the parlay is the quarterback’s passing yard prop.
Here, we have a theoretical four-leg same-game parlay with odds of +3070. Parlay odds are calculated by taking into account multiple factors, including, but not limited to, the odds on the individual legs and the riskiness of the wager.
- Seahawks -1 (-105)
- Over 42 (-110)
- D.K. Metcalf Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+170)
- Kyle Pitts Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+215)
With this same-game parlay, we’re leaning into this game becoming a bit more of a shootout than the over/under line would imply.
Starting things off is the Seahawks -1.5. At home, the Seahawks have the home-field advantage and two high-end receivers that should have a much easier day.
Jumping ahead to Metcalf’s “anytime touchdown” prop, he’ll match up primarily against Hayward Jr. on the left side. He may not be as included in the offense as Lockett at the moment. Still, Metcalf’s intimidating presence should allow him to win many one-on-one matchups, especially if they allow him to run more downfield.
Running a route on 90.6% of his offensive plays, per PFF, it’s time for Metcalf to get things going.
On the other side of the ball, we mentioned that Pitts will matchup plenty against Barton. He’s had trouble against opposing tight ends this season. Thus far, he’s matched up against Broncos tight end Albert Okwuegbunam and 49ers reserve tight end Ross Dwelley.
Going up against Pitts, he’s in for a much more difficult matchup.
Expect Metcalf and Pitts to find the end zone and the Seahawks to pull this one out, 24-21.
