Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
- When: Thursday, Oct. 6 (Week 5)
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver, Colorado)
Betting Odds Summary (BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Spread: Colts +3 (-105), Broncos -3 (-115)
- Moneyline: Colts +145, Broncos -175
- Total: Over/Under 42.5 (-110/-110)
Note: Odds and lines are current at the time of writing and subject to change.
The Indianapolis Colts had high hopes entering the season, only to find themselves 1-2-1 entering a Thursday Night Football matchup with the Denver Broncos at Mile High.
Denver isn’t playing good football either, however. New head coach Nathaniel Hackett looks incompetent running his first NFL team. The Broncos are 2-2 with new quarterback Russell Wilson, who is leading one of the NFL’s most inefficient offenses.
So, which bad team should we bet on?
There are plenty of different ways to bet on Thursday’s football game, and we’re going to recommend our best bets for this edition of Thursday Night Football.
Spread, Moneyline, Total: Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos
As mentioned above, Indianapolis and Denver feature two horrific offenses.
The Broncos are currently 30th in the NFL in points per game (16.5), while the Colts are 32nd (14.3). Both have stalled despite “upgrading” their quarterbacks during the offseason.
Matt Ryan was supposed to be a significant improvement over Carson Wentz with a top offensive line and a good run game led by Jonathan Taylor. Instead, he’s thrown only five touchdowns while also throwing five interceptions.
Wilson was also expected to take off with an offensive guru like Hackett as a head coach and a bevy of weapons in Denver. Instead, he’s averaged just 213.3 passing yards and one passing touchdown per game over the last three weeks.
However, both defenses have managed to carry their teams to wins. These are two of the NFL’s 13 most efficient defenses per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
The Colts have performed especially well against the run, giving up the sixth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL. That advantage will be amplified with Broncos lead running back Javonte Williams suffering a season-ending injury.
Meanwhile, Denver’s defense has been excellent against the pass, yielding the fifth-fewest passing yards. That will fluster an already-struggling Ryan and perhaps force him into more turnovers.
This is a clear play on the Under. The Under is 3-1 in Thursday Night Football games this season and was 11-5 in Thursday Night Football games last year. Indianapolis is 4-0 to the Under so far, while Denver is 3-1.
Our Pick: Under 42.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook
Player Prop Bets: Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos
Matt Ryan Over 0.5 Interceptions (-125) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ryan has thrown at least one interception in six straight Thursday Night Football games dating back to 2017. He’s already thrown five this season, and we project that he’ll make some poor decisions under pressure from the Broncos’ pass rush.
Denver blitzes on 35.4% of its defensive plays, an aggressive approach that has produced 11 sacks, 12 quarterback knockdowns and 12 quarterback hurries.
Meanwhile, Ryan has been sacked the fifth-most times (15) this season. Ryan will be under duress all night in Denver, and it will likely lead to at least one costly mistake that cashes this prop bet for us.
Our Same-Game Parlay
Our Colts vs. Broncos same-game parlay (+463 at FanDuel Sportsbook) is as follows:
- Under 42.5 Total Points (-105)
- Under 21.5 First Half Points (-135)
- Russell Wilson Under 231.5 Passing Yards (-114)
- Matt Ryan Under 230.5 Passing Yards (-114)
With strong defenses and weak offenses on both sides, we believe this will be a low-scoring game. Both offenses will struggle early and often, keeping the first half total and final score down.
Specifically, we believe both quarterbacks will have immense difficulties. Neither offensive line has protected the quarterback adequately, and both teams have defensive fronts that will take advantage.
Ryan and Wilson have both stayed under 230 passing yards in two of their past three games, and Wilson barely went over last week. The Broncos have held all four opposing quarterbacks under their passing yards total, and the Colts have held three straight opposing quarterbacks under.
We can cash in on a low-scoring, low-passing game with this same-game parlay, which will pay out $463 in profits plus our original wager back if it hits.
