Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints
- When: Sunday, October 9 (Week 5)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA)
Betting Odds Summary
- Spread: Seahawks +5 (-110), Saints -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Seahawks +185, Saints -215
- Total: 45 (Over -110, Under -110)
Note: Odds and lines come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current at the time of writing and subject to change.
As we head into this Week 5 NFC showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints, the headline here comes courtesy of the Saints’ injury report.
Quarterback Jameis Winston missed Week 4 with a back injury and is listed as doubtful for Week 5, teeing up another start for Andy Dalton. Top receiver Michael Thomas will also miss the second straight week with a foot injury. On the bright side, running back Alvin Kamara is gearing up to make his return, which should help quell some of the pain of a Dalton-led offense.
Meanwhile, Seahawks starting quarterback Geno Smith has been shockingly efficient this season, completing a league-high 77.3% of his passes. His average target depth this season is 8.1 yards, which isn’t massive. Still, it’s not like he’s checking down every time or sticking to short passes.
With so many variables, there are multiple ways to approach this game from a betting perspective. Here, we’ll dive into those.
Spread, Moneyline, Total: Saints vs. Seahawks
With Dalton likely to start, it isn’t easy to side with a spread of five points on either side. The spread is the number of points the oddsmaker feels that one team is better or worse than the opponent.
So, instead, we’ll focus on the total here. The total is wagering on the combined point total in the game. The total is listed at 45 at DraftKings but we feel that’s too low, so we’re going to bet the Over.
While New Orleans’ defense has been better than Seattle’s, that’s not saying much. The Seahawks have allowed the second-most points in the NFL at 28.8 per game and just got torched for 45 points by the Detroit Lions. The Saints are allowing 24.0 points per game, which ranks 20th out of 32 teams.
Smith has taken off since Pete Carroll promised to “let Geno cook” starting in Week 3, producing back-to-back games over 300 passing yards. Running back Rashaad Penny is also coming off a monster Week 4 in which he ran for a season-high 151 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries.
Dalton was far from perfect in Week 4, but he still played reasonably well, completing 20 of 28 passes for 236 yards and a score. According to Pro Football Focus, he did have two turnover-worthy plays, which is actually a positive when betting the Over turnovers typically result in points for the other team.
New Orleans has enough playmakers, especially with Kamara returning, to keep up with Seattle’s suddenly potent offense. Both teams will score inside the 20s and send this total over.
Player Prop Bets: Saints vs. Seahawks
Single-player prop bets can be assessed in many ways, similar to gauging fantasy football production. Here, you’re looking at an individual player and deciding based on the matchup.
Below, we have a player prop for one player on each team.
- Chris Olave Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
With Dalton starting last week, Saints rookie wide receiver Chris Olave caught four of his seven targets for 67 yards and a touchdown. He’s now notched at least 67 receiving yards in three straight games and is poised to lead New Orleans’ receiving corps again with Thomas out, especially against a Seahawks defense that’s allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game.
- Geno Smith Under 0.5 Interceptions (+120 at DraftKings)
Smith has been remarkably accurate this year, completing more than three-quarters of his pass attempts. That’s given opposing defenses fewer chances to intercept him, which has only happened twice this season.
With Smith is throwing the ball 20+ yards downfield on just 9.8% of his attempts (per PFF), he’s not taking too many risks downfield and shouldn’t have to worry much about a Saints defense that’s only picked off one pass this year.
Our Same-Game Parlay
A same-game parlay is taking multiple events from a single game and betting on them on a single betslip. This provides better overall odds than wagering on them individually, yielding a higher payout.
Below is our four-leg same-game parlay for Saints vs. Seahawks:
- Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125)
- Chris Olave Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
- Over 46.5 (-105)
- Seahawks Moneyline (+185)
We already covered Olave’s yardage prop, and we also like him to score a touchdown again after connecting with Dalton for one last week. This is a good matchup for him and he should be busy against Seattle’s generous secondary, especially in the red zone.
Betting the over is also something we discussed as our main best bet, so we’ll add that here. When enabling the Same Game Parlay tool at DraftKings, you’ll need to consider the hook—the added 0.5 to 46—but that’s okay.
Where the bet gets a bit risky is taking the Seahawks’ moneyline. They’re road underdogs in this one, but the Saints are shorthanded without Winston and Thomas. Smith looks like a better quarterback than Dalton right now and Penny should do some damage against a New Orleans defense that’s allowing the 13th-most rushing yards.
Dalton’s two turnover-worthy plays last week could come back to bite him. He avoided any interceptions, but even one pick could change the tide of this game.
We’re relying on Smith’s efficiency here, which we’re comfortable doing indoors at the Caesars Superdome.
