Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
- When: Sunday, October 9 (Week 5)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
Betting Odds Summary
- Spread: Dolphins -3.5 (-105), Jets +3.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Dolphins -175, Jets +150
- Total: 45.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Note: Odds and lines come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current at the time of writing and subject to change.
As we march into Week 5 of the NFL season, it’s impossible to talk about the Miami Dolphins without mentioning everything going on with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. After two nasty hits in back-to-back games during Weeks 3 and 4, Tagovailoa suffered some obvious head trauma and will not play in Week 5.
In his place is the veteran signal-caller Teddy Bridgewater, who will hit the road to face the New York Jets in an AFC East rivalry game. Zach Wilson has had his own injury issues this year and is making his second start of the season for New York.
Here, we’ll parse through the injuries and returning players to give you the best bets. Let’s dive in.
Spread, Moneyline, Total: Jets vs. Dolphins
A former Pro Bowler with the Minnesota Vikings, Bridgewater is something of a journeyman now. He’s on his fifth team in six seasons, although he’s had a fair amount of success almost everywhere he’s been. This will be his first start of the year after relieving Tagovailoa in each of the last two games.
Bridgewater’s not a flashy option, but he’s generally effective and is pretty solid as far as backup quarterbacks go. It also helps that Miami features an impressive array of weapons headlined by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Zach Wilson, on the other hand, is still trying to prove he belongs in the NFL. He struggled as a rookie last year and his season debut against the Pittsburgh Steelers did not go well. The 23-year-old completed just 50% of his passes with one touchdown and two interceptions. It could have been worse, too, as Pro Football Focus graded him as having four turnover-worthy plays.
Bridgewater may not be as talented as Tagovailoa, but he’s still the better quarterback in this matchup. Miami’s secondary hasn’t been amazing this year, but Wilson can make most opposing defenses look great. The Dolphins have just one interception but have broken up 14 passes.
The Jets’ defense has been better with six picks, but they’re still allowing too many points at 25.3 per game. Wilson is also someone that we’re not comfortable betting on.
Given the shaky quarterback play on both sides, we’d recommend betting the under on the total. We’re also backing Miami at -3.5 on the spread, which means we need the Dolphins to beat the Jets by more than 3.5 points to win.
Player Prop Bets: Jets vs. Dolphins
With player prop bets, you’re wagering on an individual player’s performance. This can correlate to how you think the game will go score-wise, but you’ll want to look at individual matchups and data points on usage to help gauge your selections.
- Mike Gesicki Under 1.5 Receptions (+140 at DraftKings)
Through four games, Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki has just 10 total targets. While he’s been out on the field for 90 passing down snaps (third on the team), he’s barely run more routes (77) than backup running back Raheem Mostert (74) and wide receiver Trent Sherfield (74).
Gesicki’s just not a factor in this offense whatsoever. Most of his production came in Week 2 against the Baltimore Ravens, when Miami scored 42 points. Half of his catches came in that game but he’s been quiet otherwise, so take the under on all Gesicki props.
Our Same-Game Parlay
With a same-game parlay, you take multiple events (aka “legs”) from one game and group them on a betslip. In order for the bet to win, every leg must come true.
As an example, here is a four-leg same-game parlay for Dolphins vs. Jets:
- Dolphins -3.5 (-105)
- Under 45.5 (-110)
- Raheem Mostert Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130)
- Chase Edmonds Under 34.5 Rushing Yards (-180)
We’ve already mentioned why we like the Dolphins’ spread and the under, but we’re also including a pair of player props as well. We’re specifically looking at Miami’s two running backs who are trending in opposite directions after Raheem Mostert out-touched Chase Edmonds, 17-7, in Week 4.
With Bridgewater looking to rely more on the running game than the passing game, the explosive Mostert will be the beneficiary. He’s yet to score a touchdown this year but is bound to find the end zone sooner or later with how much volume he’s getting. He also scored a touchdown in his lone career game against the Jets, which bodes well for this prop.
As for Edmonds, the carries just haven’t been there for him lately. After rushing 12 times in Week 1, he’s seen just 16 rushing attempts over the last three weeks combined. He’s fallen below this total in every game so far and managed just six rushing yards on five carries last week. Mostert has clearly taken over the Dolphins’ backfield, leaving Edmonds with the scraps.
