Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
- When: Sunday, Oct. 23 (Week 7)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Betting Odds Summary
- Spread: Lions +7 (-110), Cowboys -7 (-110)
- Moneyline: Lions +265, Cowboys -330
- Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-114/-106)
Note: Odds and lines are current at the time of writing and subject to change.
The Detroit Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL but are still just 1-4. Unfortunately, the Lions’ defense can’t stop a nosebleed.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys are down to their backup quarterback but have a 4-2 record. Luckily, the Cowboys’ offense gets superstar QB Dak Prescott back for Sunday’s game.
This matchup is a tale of two teams on divergent paths, one with momentum and one stuck in the mud. As a result, Dallas is a seven-point favorite in this Week 7 battle.
Does Dallas roll, or will Detroit play frisky enough to cover a moderately large spread?
There are plenty of different ways to bet on this game, and we’ll recommend our best Week 7 wager.
Spread, Moneyline, Total: Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys
There are only five teams in the NFL averaging over six yards per play, including Buffalo, Baltimore, Seattle, Miami, and Detroit.
Jared Goff has been OK, avoiding mistakes and getting the ball to Detroit’s playmakers. But the offense’s star is the offensive line, followed by backfield duo D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams.
The Lions are third in Football Outsiders’ Offensive Line Yards metric and fourth in their Rush DVOA metric. Swift is second among halfbacks in yards after contact per attempt (4.48), while Williams is second in rushing touchdowns (6).
Detroit’s offense can move the ball consistently, especially on early downs. But the Lions have two significant issues.
First, Detroit’s defense is horrendous. No NFL defense has allowed more yards per play (6.5) or points (170) than the Lions. Only Cleveland has allowed more rushing touchdowns (10), and only Arizona has a lower Pro Football Focus Coverage grade (44.5).
Second, Detroit’s offense is running into a wall. The Cowboys have allowed the third-lowest points (98) and yards per play (4.6) in the NFL this season. The Cowboys have impact players at all three levels of the defense, including defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence, linebacker Micah Parsons, and defensive back Travon Diggs.
The Cowboys are among the few NFL defenses equipped to stop the Lions’ offense.
But Dallas has its problems. The Cowboys are 26th in the NFL in total offense this season and have been particularly inefficient through the air. But backup quarterback Cooper Rush has been under center.
The starting quarterback returns this week, but we doubt Prescott will play rust-free post-injury. Moreover, we’d imagine Mike McCarthy will initially lean on the rushing game to ease Prescott into the offense. However, the Cowboys are fourth-to-last in Pass Rate Over Expectation (-8.7%), and we shouldn’t expect a complete 180.
We predict an impressive performance from the Dallas defense and a lackluster performance from the Dallas offense. Given the Lions are strong on offense and weak on defense, this game could grind to a halt.
Therefore, we like the under 48.5 (-106) available at FanDuel Sportsbook, a number we would project closer to 47. A $100 wager on this would pay out $94.34 in profits.
Our Pick: Under 48.5 (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Player Prop Bets: Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys
Jared Goff Under 249.5 Passing Yards (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook
As mentioned, we’re expecting a lower-scoring game. Unfortunately, that means fewer yards for major offensive players on both sides.
However, we expect Goff to struggle more than usual today.
First, the Cowboys boast an excellent all-around defense but are especially good against the pass. Dallas is third in Football Outsiders’ Pass Defense DVOA metric, first in pass pressure rate (32.4%), and fourth in Pro Football Focus’s Coverage grades.
Goff will have little time to pass and tiny windows to fit passes. That is a formula for Goff to fall under his passing yards total.
Moreover, the Cowboys have held five of six opposing quarterbacks this season under their passing yards total.
Expect more of the same in Week 7.
Our Same-Game Parlay
Our Lions vs. Cowboys same-game parlay (+600 at DraftKings Sportsbook) is as follows:
- Dallas Cowboys ML (-330)
- Under 48.5 Total Points (-106)
- Jared Goff Under 224.5 Passing Yards (+170)
- Detroit Lions Team Total Under 14.5 Points (+250)
The more we look at this game, the more we believe the Detroit offense will struggle.
The Cowboys’ defense is going to dominate Goff and the aerial attack. While the Lions have a better chance of moving the ball on the ground, Swift is still unlikely to play. Williams is an excellent running back, but he can’t replicate Swift’s production in the passing game.
All this leads us to two conclusions: The Cowboys will win, and the Lions will score very little.
Goff and the Detroit offense managed 229 pass yards and zero points last week against New England and are now matching up against a much better defense. So it’s reasonable to expect Goff to fall under 225 passing yards and the Detroit offense to fall under two touchdowns.
Dallas’ defense will win this game and will cash our same-game parlay. A $100 wager on this would pay out $600 in profits.
