Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
- When: Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Soldier Field (Chicago, Illinois)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Dolphins (-200), Bears (+170)
- Point Spread: Dolphins -4 (-115), Bears +4 (-105)
- Total: Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-110)
Note: Odds and lines are current from DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of writing and are subject to change.
Last week’s game against the Dallas Cowboys resulted in a 49-29 loss for the Chicago Bears. While the Bears’ defense failed to show up, their offense continued to progress as Justin Fields tallied three touchdowns while Khalil Herbert added another.
Chicago will try to keep that momentum going this week after trading a second-round pick to the Pittsburgh Steelers in exchange for wide receiver Chase Claypool. The Bears now have a legitimate second receiver to pair with Darnell Mooney, making the offense even more dangerous. But will Claypool have enough time to mesh with his new team to be productive right off the bat?
We’ll see, as the 5-3 Dolphins swim their way up north to play at Soldier Field this week following a 31-27 victory over the Detroit Lions.
Spread, Moneyline, Total: Dolphins vs. Bears
Tough stuff this week, fellow bettors. Tough stuff, indeed.
For once, the Bears aren’t subject to a massive moneyline gap. At +170, there’s reasonable value to be had, provided you believe Fields can stay hot and Claypool will be a difference-maker in his first game with Chicago. We like this option, as Miami averaged a measly 16 points in its four games before beating Detroit, which has the worst defense in the NFL.
During that same stretch, the Bears averaged 18.5 points. A slight difference, but all signs point to this Chicago team being better than most experts purport. Accordingly, we like the Bears to upset the Dolphins this week.
Want to mitigate your risk? Try the spread. Chicago is getting +4 points at DraftKings, so we need the Bears to stay within a field goal. The Dolphins aren’t a blowout team, as their last three wins have all been by one possession. Chicago could cover this week at home.
As for the total, it could go either way, so we recommend staying away.
Player Prop Bets: Dolphins vs. Bears
We have some exciting picks this week, but here are a few prop bets that we like.
- Khalil Herbert Anytime TD Scorer (+150)
Khalil is as strong a threat to make a run for the end zone as any. He proved it last week, securing one of Chicago’s four touchdowns. Usually, we’d spring for a yardage prop, but we’re getting good value here. We’ll spice things up and hope that “anytime” means this Sunday against the Dolphins.
- Justin Fields Over 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (-245)
There’s not much value here, but this bet is still ripe for the picking. Fields threw for two touchdowns last week and now has Claypool in his arsenal. The young QB has passed for at least one TD in four straight games, making this a playable bet.
Same-Game Parlay: Dolphins vs. Bears
Here’s our same-game parlay for the week, which combines multiple bets from this game into a single wager:
- Justin Fields Over 149.5 Passing Yards (-195)
- Cole Kmet Under 24.5 Receiving Yards (-145)
- Jaylen Waddle Anytime TD Scorer (+110)
We can’t let the Bears have all the fun this week.
The Fields 149.5 line is a conservative pick on our part, as he’s topped this number in five straight games. We’re playing it safe to account for some experimentation with Claypool. We don’t know if there’s chemistry there yet, but Fields could have no problem snagging at least 150 passing yards again this week.
Cole Kmet, meanwhile, seems likely to suffer from Claypool’s presence. He hasn’t been reliable this year, falling below 20 receiving yards in five of eight games so far. As the third receiving option at best behind Claypool and Mooney, Kmet doesn’t figure to have a productive game here.
Finally, let’s give the Dolphins fans something to work with. Jaylen Waddle is a consistent red-zone target for Tua Tagovailoa. After banking two touchdown catches last week, look for Waddle to find the end zone again this week.
This SGP gives us +475 odds, which means a winning $100 wager would return $475 in profits plus your original bet.
